For what it's worth, yesterday was a small card and we only really liked 2 games. The good news is that we cashed them both. That left us +2.23 units for the day, and +11.56 units for the season.
It's always gratifying when a game goes almost exactly like you expected it to, and that's how it played out in our first games. We put 1 unit on the TB 1st 5 ML (-125). The price was slightly steeper than the ML (-118), but we bet it because (1) it took the bullpens out of the equation ( BALT has the better pen), and (2) it removed Archer's biggest problem area this season - the ability to go deep (more than 5 IP) into the games. Archer wasn't sharp (5 BBs and 1 HBP), but he got through 5 allowing just 1 run), and TB led 3-1 after 5. The wheels came off for Archer in the 6th (2 solo HRs)and the 7th (a HBP and another HR), and TB ultimate lost 6-3. As for Ubaldo Jimenez, he came through like the chump he is - 3.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BBs and 3 R.
Our second play was 2 units on the Diamond backs' ML -140. We came close to outsmarting ourselves here. We should have bet the 1st 5 ML again. It was a slightly higher price, but in retrospect, it was the safer wager. We expected Chacin to suck(he's been dreadful outside of Petco), and he did . (6 IP, 8 H, 2 HR, 2 BBs and 7 R). We expected a good outing from Greinke and he was very good (6 IP, 6 H, 0 BBs 11 Ks and 1 R). ARIZ led 6-0 after 5, but barely hung on for a 7-6 win. We needed a save from 40 year old Fenando Rodney to cash our ticket.
Sometimes, you get it just right, and sometimes you just catch a good break. Yesterday we got both.
On to tonight's games.
We'll have a few plays and post them as we finish the write ups. Here's the first one.
HTN @ CLEV
STARTING PITCHERS
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel's last 3 seasons look like a monster roller coaster He had a breakout season in 2015, when he won the AL Cy Young award. He followed that with a really disappointing 2016 season, and now this season, he's been lights out. I didn't understand why Keuchel has had such drastic swings. Usually, when I see swings like that, I hink injuries, but that wasn't the case with Keuchel, so I spent about an hour doing a deep dive this morning.
We'll start with right now. How good has Keuchel been? Answr, he's been superb so far this season. He's started four games, and has thrown four quality starts. He's gone 7 full innings in all of them, and has yet to allow more than 1 run in any of them. His 22/6 K/BB ratio is equally outstanding.
Now flash back to 2015. Keuchel posted a 20-9 record with a 1.02 WHIP and a 2.48 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 2.84 SIERA and a 2.75 xFIP were equally outstanding, as was his 4.24 K/BB ratio. Only Francisco Liriano threw fewer balls in the zone than Keuchel's 37.6%. That's an important part of Keuchel's story.
Last season, hitters adjusted, swinging and reaching less at Keuchel's out of zone pitches. As a result, Keuckel had to throw more pitches in the strike zone (41.6%), and that led to less K's (7.71 K/9 v 8,38), more BBs (2.57 v 1.98), 4.1% less soft contact (21.1%% v 25.2%), 88.5% more hard contact ((29.8% v 21.3%), and a 42 point increase in BAA ((.258 v .216). Not surprisingly, Keuchel's numbers declined ( a 1.29 WHIP, a 4.55 ERA, a 3.77 SIERA and 3.53 xFIP) . The discrepancy between Kwuchel's ERA and metrics tell me that he also was the victim of some bad luck on BABIP.
Will Keuchel continue to absolutely dominate hitters? On the plus side, he has excellent command, excellent movement on his sinker, and he's using his cutter more (11.9%). He's throwing less pitches in the zone again (35.3%) and getting more swing strikes 32.8%) on them. Both of those numbers are comparable to his 2015 numbers (37.6/5 out of zone pitches and 3.3% swing strikes out of zone). He's also generating 10% more soft contact (31.1% v 21.1%) and 10.9% less hard contact (18.9% v 29.8%). Gain, bothe of those are cmparable to his 2017 numbers (25.2% soft contact and 21.3% hard contact).
On the minus side his 7.07 K/9 is the lowest of his career, and his 89 mph fastball velocity is well below average even for a lefty.
It's tough to live outside the zone and convince hitters to keep swinging. I would expect some regression from Keuchel as hitters adjust.
Josh Tomlin
I've never bought in to Tomlin as a frontline starter, and so far this season, he hasn't been one. He's made three starts for CLEV with mixed results . His first two starts were awful. In the first one, at ARIZ, he got lit up for 7 hits and 6 runs in 4.2 innings. He di strike out 6 and walk just 1. His next start, at home v the Wire Sox, was even worse. He got torched for 8 hits (2 HRs) and 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. He did throw a quality start in his most recent outing at MINN. He allwed7 hits but only 3 runs in 6 innings. Those three outings illustrate my problem with Tomlin. He has excellent control (2 BBs), he doesn't strike out many (6), and he's eminently hittable. This season he's given up 22 hits in his 12.1 innings.
Last season, Tomlin finished 13 -9 with a 1.19 WHIP, and a 4.40 ERA. His advanced metrics, 44.24 SIERA and 4.12 xFIP, we also quite mediocre. Tomlin did continue his stinginess last season, walking just 2.8% of batters, the lowest among all qualified pitchers. His career 3.8% mark is also excellent. However, his 16.3% strikeout rate ranked 68th out of 73 pitchers and dropped by over 5% from his 2014-15 levels. Finally Tomlin continues to allow more than 1 hit per IP. The only good good news is that Tomlin improved in terms of his ground ball rate, which reached a career high 44% in 2016.
Do I believe Keuchel's as good as he's looked this season? Absolutely not. Do I believe Keuchel's much better than Tomlin? Absolutely!
Edge - HTN
BULLPENS
These are two excellent bullpens.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSES
Again we have two very good and very potent offenses, HTN's is just a little better right now
Edgee - HTN slight
DEFENSE
Edge - CLEV very slight
HOME/ROAD RECORD
HTN is 6-2 on the road v 7-4 at home
CLEV is 2-4 at home v 8-4 on the road
Edge - NONE It'stoo small a sample size to conclude that CLEv's really weaker at home.
Conclusion: These are two very good teams, and I would not be surprised to see them both in the playoffs. The bullpens are both excellent and very ewvenly matched. The offenses are both potent, but HTN's hitting a little better right now, and the defense are weak but again evenly matched. The big diffenernce here are the two starting pitchers. Keuchel may not be as good as he's shown so far, but he's still a lot better than Tomlin. I'm betting HTN gets more off Tomlin than CLEV gets off Keuchel and the 1st 54 ML (-121) isn't much more expensive than the full game ML (-115).
PICK - HTN 1st 5 ML (-121 for 1 unit)
SEA @ DET
STARTING PITCHERS
Felix Hernandez
"King Felix" has started four games for the Mariners, and has produced two quality starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in three of those starts, and 4 in the fourth. His 20/1 K/BB rate is also superb. There are, however, some legitimate concerns. Hernandez has now given up has now double-digit hits in two of his four starts. For the season he's allowed 33 hits in 24.2 innings including 5 HRs.
Last season, Hernandez experienced a major decline, posting an 11-8 record with a 1.32 WHIP, and a 3.82 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.63 SIERA and a 4.45 xFIP, were even worse. Hernandez’s fastball velocity, 91 mph, has been on the decline for a decade now, but 2016 was the first season where that seemed to actually limit his effectiveness. For the first time since 2008 that Hernandez's K/9 rate dropped below 8, and his 3.8 BB/9 was a career high.
Hernandez is no longer the same pitcher who dominated just a few years ago. That elite strikeout pitcher is gone and won't be coming back. However, the new Hernandez, with his reworked repertoire of pitches, has pitched efficiently. He has maintained a similar velocity differential between his fastball and changeup. There are certainly signs ( the 7.30 K/9 rate and the 1.82 HR/9) that Hernandez could be the next once-dominant pitchers to lose their edge in the 30s, but he has the diversity of pitches and pitches his home games in a favorable park.
Jordan Zimmerman
When I heard that WASH let Zimmerman walk in free agency a year ago, I was sure they made a big mistake. After all, Zimmerman was a near elite pitcher, and I was sure the Nats would end up regretting letting him go. I was certainly out to lunch on that one.
Although, it started out OK, last season turned out to be an awful for Zimmerman. Of course I didn't expect multiple injuries that would cost him virtually all of the 2nd half, as he threw just 9.7 innings after June 30th. I'm sure the Tiger didn't either. Zimmerman actually carried a 1.50 ERA through his first 7 starts, However, his advance ERA metrics, a 15%K rate and 9% K%-BB% rate made it clear that he had been exceedingly lucky, mostly in the form of a .260 BABIP. Two starts later (one awful, one decent) he suffered a groin iniury that resulted in a missed start. He returned in early June and was awful, except for 1 stellar outing that ended up being his best start of the season. His June ERA was a brutal 6.43 The groin injury was most likely to blame, and seemed to have a cascading effect which eventually led to DL still for his neck and lat in July and August.
Zimmerman began this season with a quality start, but since then, he's really struggled. After his 6 inning 4 hit 1 run outing against BOS, Zimmerman allowed 4 hits and 5 runs with 5 BBs in 4.2 innings v MINN. In his last start, at TB, he allowed 10 hits and 5more runs in 6 innings.
I'm not sure that I can give either pitcher the edge here. The numbers lean to hernandez but IMO, he's just been luckier than Zimmerman.
Edge - NONE
BULLPENS
These are tow lousy bullpens. I wouldn't trust either one.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSE
These are two potent offenses. DET looks a little stronger
Edge - DET small
DEFENSE
Edge - SEA slight
HOME/ROAD RECORD
SEA is just 2-9 on the road v 6-3 at home
DET is 5-2 at home v 5-6 on the road
It's a very small sample size but still...
Edge - DET
Conclusion: When I first glanced at this game, I expected to on the SEA side. I even said so in a couple of ther folks' posts here at PG. Well I won't be. I think "King Felix" has been lucky so far. There are far too many danger signs. I won't be on DET either. Zimmerman hasn't been as lucky as Hernandez, but he's been at least just as bad and maybe worse. And if, by some miracle, one of they guys gives us 6 decent innings, there's still those tqo crappy bullpens and potent offenses.
PICK - OVER 8.5 (+102 for 1 unit)
KC @ CHI WS
STARTING PITCHERS
Danny Duffy
Duffy broke out big time last season posting a 12-3 record, with a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.51 ERA in 179.2 innings, with 188 Ks and 42 BB. Hids advanced metrics, a 3.53 SIERA and a 3.79 xFIP, were also rock solid. This season Duffy has picked up right where he left off. He has produced a quality start in all three of his four outing this season, allowing 2 runs or less in all four, and one or less in three of them. Duffy only has a 2-0 record, but in the other two games, the woeful KC offense scored just 1 run.
Last season, Duffy went to the bullpen and found some velocity there that stuck when he returned to the rotation. He also found the confidence to throw the ball in the zone with his nastier stuff as well, resulting in a career-high zone percentage. Duffy may not have any better command now, but throwing a sinker more often allowed him to throw to the middle of the zone, particularly for first-pitch strikes. And throwing the changeup more often helped improve its drop and make it a legitimate third quality pitch. Now, Duffy has a complete arsenal. He'a a lefty with a 95 mph fastball, a nasty slurve, and a strong changeup.
Dylan Covey
Covey is a former 4th round pick for OAK. The White Sox acquired him as a Rule 5 pick, so he'll either spend the year in the Majors with the Sox or have to be sent through waivers and offered back to his original organization, the A’s. Reports say that his stuff has tailed off since his prep years and he’s had to learn to balance his diabetes with pro ball. Although he doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, Covey possesses solid control, command of four-pitches, has been durable and induces a ton of ground-ball outs.
Covey has made two starts this season. In his first start at MINN. He allowed 5 hits, but only 1 run, with 1 K and 3 BBs. In his 2nd start, against NYY at Yankee stadium, NY teed off on Covey for 1o hits (3 HRs) an 8 runs. Covey's 2/5 K/BB rate is a major concern.
Covey just might be the cure KC's offensive woes.
Edge - KC
BULLPENS
The KC pen has been awful, while the White Sox pen has been much better than expected.
Edge - CHI WS
OFFENSE
Both of these teams are seriously offensively challenged. CHI gets an edge, mostly by default.
Edge - CHI WS very slight
DEFENSE
Edge - KC
HOME/ROAD RECORD
KC is 2-9 on the road v 5-3 at home
CHI WS are 4-5 at home v 5-4 on the road
Edge - CHI WS
Conclusion: CHI has an enormous advantage in the bullpen and that precludes a KCfull ML wager. KC, however, has the vastly superior starting pitcher in Danny Duffy. I didn't buy the Jason Vargas resurgence last night, I see no reason to believe it's legit, but Duffy is a different story. There are solid reasons for his success. By contrast, I want no part of Dylan Covey. We'll hope KC gets a couple early off Covey, and Duffy dominates a weak CHI offense for 5 innings.
PICK - KC 1st 5 ML (-130 for 1 unit)
MINN @ TEX
STARTING PITCHERS
Ervin Santan
Last season, Santana was easily the best pitcher in a Twins rotation that finished last or nearly last in virtually every meaningful statistic. No rotation had a worse ERA than the Twins, but that wasn't Santana's fault. He started very slowly, but picked up steam as the season wore on, finishing with a 7-11 record, a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.38. His advanced metrics a 4.29 SIERA and a 4,21 xFIP, weren't as good, but still decent. Santana actually started very poorly. After his June 14 start his WHIP was an ugly 1.50 and his ERA topped out at 5.10. However, from that point on, Santana completely turned it around, In his final 18 starts, he posted a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.41 ERA, a 2.41 ERA, and a 100/32 K/BB ratio in 116 innings. Only once in those final 18 starts did he allow more than 3 earned runs. He was also throwing harder (92.7 mph average) than he had at any point in the last 5.
This season, Santana has picked up right where he left off. He's started four games and has thrown four quality starts. Santana has yet to allow more than 1 run in any of his starts and allow 0 in two of them., and he's still throwing 92+ mph.
Andrew Cashner
Cashner has made two starts for the Ranger. In the first one, he was a little shaky, allowing 5 hits and 4 runs (3 earned in 5.1 innings with 3 Ks and 2 BBs. In his last start v KC, he went 6 innings, allowing 3 hits but 0 runs, with 3 Ks and 4 BBs. His 6/6 K/BB ratio is a legitimate concern.
Long on potential and stuff, and short on results, that's been Cashner's M.O. heading into his age-30 season, with an at best mediocre career. He's reached 180 innings just twice, and he's never really been able to put together a season year in which his strikeouts, walks and groundball rate all come together. As a result he's always disappointed. Last season, he posted a 5-11 record with a 1.53 WHIP and a and a 5.25 ERA. Hid advanced metrics, a 4.72 SIIERA and a 4.63 xFIP, weren't much better. Projections have him pegged for about a 4.80 ERA with middling whiff and walk rates. The best-case scenario is that he'll do a decent Colby Lewis imitation, but don't bet on it. I'm not.
Shutting down a woeful KC offense does not impress me. What Santana's done since June 14, 2015 does.
Edge - MINN
BULLPENS
The Rangers are supposed to have the better bullpen, but so far they two pens look pretty even.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSES
So far this season, the Twins have been the better hitting team.
Edge - MINN
DEFENSE
Edge - MINN
HOME/ROAD RECORD
MINN is 4-3 on the road v 5-7 at home
TEX is 6-5 at home v 3-6 on the road
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: These two bullpens are pretty even, but the Twins have the better defense, the better offense and the better starting pitcher. One quality start against a weak KC offense won'r change my opinion of Cahsner, However Santana's body of work since last June is very impressive.
PICK - MINN 1st 5 ML( -125 for 1 unit)