For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be mighty fine, mighty fine indeed. We finished +5.58 units for the day and +7.67 units for the season.
We'll start with the Cubs. Sometimes, it doesn't go exactly as expected, but we still end up casing the ticket. That's exactly what happen here. We put 2 units on the Cubs 1st 5 RLbecause we expected the Cubs to jump all over Cody Reed, and we expected Jake Arrieta to dominate the Reds. Well, the Cubs jumped on Reed for 3 in the first, and we looked so smart. However, the Reds jumped all over Arrieta in the bottom of the 1st, for a 4-3 lead after 1, and we weren't looking very smart at all. The Cubs got 4 more off Reed in the 2nd, and the Reds got 1 back in the bottom of the 2nd. It was 7-5 Cubs at the end of 2, and Reed was gone. Fortunately Arrieta settled down and the Cubs got another run in the 5th. It was 8-5 Cubs after 5 and we cashed our ticket.
Our next wager was on CLEV. The ML was too pricey for my taste so we put 2 units on the CLEV 1st 5 RL and 2 more on the full game CLEV RL. We loved this game because we really liked Carrasco and we think Pelfrey is complete garbage. The Indians jumped on Pelfrey for 2 in the 1st and never looked back. Carrasco was dominant (8 IP 3 H 0 ER and 8 Ks) and CLEV added 2 more in the 5th. It was 4-0 after 5 and ended 7-0.
In our final wagers of the night, we put 1 unit on PHIL 1st 5 ML and another on the PHIL full game ML. To us, these two teams looked pretty evenly matched. The both have mediocre offenses and lousy bullpens, but we felt Eickhoff was better than Garcia. As it turned out, that wasn't the case. Eickhoff pitched very well, holding the Braves to 1kust 1 run over 5 innings. Unfortunately, that was 1 run more than PHI: got off Garcia. It was 1-0 ATL after 5 and we were down 1 unit. Phil got 2 in the 6th (an inning too late) to take a 2-1 lead, and it stayed that way until the 9th, when these two crappy bullpens took turns sucking. ATL got 1 in the 9th to tie it at 2-1, and added the potential game winner in the 10th. 3-2 ATL. However, the ATL pen gave up 2 in the bottom of the 10th and we lucked out with a 4-3 win.
In retrospect, we cashed a ticket on it, but we should never have bet the PHIL full game ML. It was nothing more than a 50-50 crapshoot with two bad bullpens. As I said, this time, we got lucky.
On to today's games.
CHI C @ CIN
STARTING PITCHERS
John Lackey has made 3 starts for the Cubs this season and has pitched reasonably well. His first two outings were both quality starts. In his most recent start, Lackey allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings against MIL , He struck out two. He fell victim to the longball in that one, allowing a 2-run shot in the 1st and solo HRs in the 2nd and 3rd. Other than those three mistakes, he pitched well allowed just 1aserunner over his last 3 innings.
Last season, Lackey's first in Chicago was something of a mixed bag. He posted an 11-8 record with a 1.06 WHIP and a 3.35 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.83 SIERA and a 3.80 xFIP, were both over half a run higher. The positives included his best K/9 rate, 8.60, since 2005. also, Opposing hitters only posted a .255 BABIP against him, but that can be partially attributed to a historically good Cubs defense, which is not as good this season. . Another concern is that despite a low BABIP. opposing hitters made strong contact (34.4% hard contact) off of Lackey last season. That was the highest of his career. This season he's at 29.4% hard contact tate so far. He also had an increased BB/9, from 2.19 to 2.53. This season it's 3.0 so far. As a result a regression could be on the way for the 38 year old Lackey. His WHIP will almost certainly rise back toward his career average of 1.30, while his strikeout rate will also likely regress back closer to his 7.2 career rate.
40 tear old Bronson Arroyo has now made three starts for the Reds, his first big league starts since 2014. In the first one, he got shelled in. He gave up 6 hits (including 2 HRs), and 3 walks, and allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings against the Cardinals, while striking out 3. However since then he's pitched somewhat better, allowing 12 hits, including 3 more HRs, and 8 runs in 11 innings with 2 BBs and 6 Ks. For the season, the number are still pretty ugly, 18 hits, 5 HRs, and 14 ERs in 15 innings with 9 Ks and 5 BBs.
On February 7, 2014, the ARIZ agreed to terms with Arroyo on a 2-year contract. On June 16, 2014 Arroyo was placed on the DL. for the first time in his career, after leaving a start early against the Dodgers with an elbow injury. It was announced on July 7 that Arroyo would be undergoing TJ surgery to repair a torn UCL, forcing him out for the remainder of the 2014 season. In his 14 starts, with ARIZ, Arroyo posted a 7-4 record with a 1.29 WHIP and a 4.08 ERA . Last Spring, while trying to make WASF's roster, Arroyo tore a tendon in his rotator cuff. Last year, Arroyo revealed that his previous elbow problems have been relieved by stem-cell injections he received in August. He's now back with CIN, where he spent eight years (2006-2013) as a rotation workhorse before leaving in FA for ARIZ after the 2013 season.
Simply put, Lackey's not as good as he used to be, but Arroyo is probably still much
EDGE - CHI C
BULLPENS
Last season, the Reds had by far the worst bullpen in baseball. So far this season, they have one of the better pen, and the Cubs haven't been quite as good, but it seems like the margin between these two pens is narrowing every day. The Cubs are suposed to have the better pen and I expect that to be the case down the road.
Edge - CIN, but narrowing
OFFENSE
Last season the Cubs were blowing teams out regularly. Not this year, but so far the Cubs are still hitting better the the Reds, but it's much closer.
Edge - CHI C
DEFENSE
Edge - CIN - slight
Conclusion: The Cubs aren't blowing teams out this season, but they are finding ways to win. The Reds got off to a fast start, but they are fading now. The Cubs finally passed them in the standings Friday night and I don't expect that to change. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. However, the Reds got to Lester Friday and Arrieta yesterday, and both of those guys are better than Lackey, so I wouldn't be shocked if they get to Lackey today. By the same token, the Cubs are the better hitting team, as they showed putting up 12 runs yesterday, and I fully expect they to get to Arroyo early and often. If this becomes a slugfest CHI should still win. I bet this early, before I even finished the write up because I believe this line will only go up.
PICK - CHI C ML (-163 for 1 unit) and RL (-105 for half a unit)
NYY @ PITT
STARTING PITCHERS
Rookie Jordan Montgomery will be making his third MLB start after a quick rise through the Yankees' system. He was a A 4th round pick in 2014, and made in through his 57-game minor-league career without allowing more than 4 runs in any of his starts. In his last start, he tossed 6 scoreless innings before giving up 3 runs to open the 7th against the White Sox. That was enough to get his first major-league win. In his 2 MLB starts, Mpntgomery has allowed 12 hits (including 2 HRs) and 6 runs (5 earned) in 10.2 innings, with 11 Ks and 4 BBs. Montgomery possesses above-average velocity (91+) to go with a good curve and that deceptive delivery.
Nova has started three games for the Pirates and has produced three quality starts. After shutting out ATL and scattering 6 hits over 6 innings, Nova allowed 8 hits and 4 runs (3 earned) over 6 innings against CIN. In his last start at STL, Noc=va allowed 5 hits and 2 runs over 8 innings with 3 Ks and 0 BBs. He has yet to walk a sinlge batter in his 20 innings.
Nova made the most of his 11 starts in PITT after a midseason trade to the Pirates. He posted a 5-2 record with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.06 ERA with an absurd 3 walks in 64.2 innings after the trade. Moving to the NL should benefit Nova greatly since he'll be facing pitchers instead of DHs, and he's out of the murderous AL East. Nova utilized his four-seam fastball much less in PITT than in NY, which makes his low walk rate even more impressive. If he can continue to pound the strike zone consistently without throwing his very hittable four-seamer very often, he could be a real asset to the Pirates. He'll never be a high strikeout pitcher, but with a good defense behind him, in a pitcher's park, in the NL is a very good scenario for a mid-rotation starter like Nova.
Nova is on a major roll right now
Edge - PITT
BULLPENS
The Yankee pen is elite, the PITT pen is far from it.
Edge - NYY
OFFENSES
I didn't expect the Yankees to hit this well, but right now, they certainly are. I didn't expect the Pirates to hit this poorly either, but they are.
Edge - NYY
DEFENSE
Edge - PITT
Conclusion: Nova is pitching great right now, with incredible command, and it's way too early to know much about Montgomery. However, I don't like betting against the NY bullpen, and right now the offense is producing, so we'll tread carefully and hope keeps it going for 5 more innings.
PICK - PITT 1st 5 ML (-108 for half a unit)
DET @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
Last 3 Calendar Yrs.
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Fulmer - R
|
1.18
|
3.23
|
3.79
|
3.68
|
7.75
|
2.29
|
1.01
|
0.242
|
0.285
|
77.70%
|
Gibson - R
|
1.38
|
4.51
|
4.31
|
4.12
|
6.17
|
3
|
0.95
|
0.265
|
0.299
|
69.90%
|
Fulmer has started three games for DEWT and has posted three quality starts. Ge's allowed 14 hit and 6 runs in 18 innings with 16 Ks and 5 BBs.
Fulmer's Rookie of the Year season was unexpected, but not really surprising considering that he was a highly regarded prospect coming up with the Mets and then traded to Detroit for Yoenis Cespedes.
He arrived with a plus fastball and slider, but the development of his changeup is what took him to the next level and fueled his award-winning season. He only used it at a 7% clip through his first 4 starts, but it turned into a 20%-usage weapon. He didn't trusting the grip so he spent a bullpen getting comfortable with his change. It took a few starts to settle in, but Fulmer found the right grip on his changeup and it took off (.404 OPS, 29% K% in 101 PA) in those final 22 starts. He also started using his 4 seamer more, particularly up in the zone, and saw immediate dividends there, too.
He went on to post an 11-7 record, with 1.12 WHIP and a 2.58 ERA in 139.2 innings. Like Wright, his advanced ERA metrics, a a 4.03 SIERA and 3.95 xFIP, were much higher than his sparkling ERA. Like with Wright, there are reasons to project some regression for Fulmer with his skill set, but that's only if his skills remain static. There is also reason to believe he improves his league average K rate (20.4%, 7.47 K/9), and throws 30 or so more innings, pushing 190+ in a full season, mitigating some of the potential regression.
Kyle Gibson has also started three games for the Twins, but he is struggling and has yet to produce anything close to quality start. He has allowed 18 hits and 11 run in in 14.1 innings with 9 Ks and 5 BBs.
When you examine Gibson's movement and velocity numbers, you see a whole lot of average. He has average movement and velocity on his sinker, changeup, and slider, but they all have average or better results when it comes to Ks and GBs. That's right, Gibson actually has better than average K rates whiff rates on his slider, curve, and change, The problem is his fastball. At one time it was his best pitch, but and it's dropped to below average velocity over time. As a result, he's throwing his other pitches more often. Last season he threw a career low in fastballs and the more he throws his other pitches, the worse his results have gotten. Last season, Gibson finished 6-11 with a poor 1.40 WHIP and a horrible 5.40 ERA. However, his advanced metrics, a 3.61 SIERA and a 3,43 xFIP. were much better
Gibson has added he's added some Ks along the way (15.9%, 6.35/9 last season)) , but it hasn't been enough to offset the drop in GBs (50%, 1.75 GB/FB last season) and the increase in HRs (1.22 HR/9 last season and 3.60 this season) . Gibson still has four decent pitches, but it stills all adds up to just being average. Maybe he can put together a slightly better than average season, but that's about the best we can expect from Gibson.
Fulmer is clearly the better pitcher here.
Edge - DET
BULLPENS
MINN doesn't have a great pen by any means, but DET's is a train wreck.
OFFENSES
Edge - DET small
DEFENSES
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-0.8
|
18
|
Tigers
|
-3.2
|
27
|
Edge - MINN
Conclusion: DET has 1 big edge in this game - the much better starting pitcher. However their bullpen is so bad that it precludes a ML wager.
PICK - DET 1st 5 ML (+100 for 1 unit)
KC @ TEX
STARTING PITCHERS
Jason Hammel hasn't pitched badly for the Royal this season, he just hasn't pitched well either. He's started 3 games and produced 1 quality start. He's allowed 19 hits and 8 runs in 15.2 innings with 9 Ks and 7 BBs. With last year's Cubs, that might have been good enough, but not with this season's Royals.
Last season, there were some troubling signs from Hammel. His fastball usage continued to decline, instead he relied more on his curveball. The result was a decreased K/9 from 9.07 to 7.79, his lowest total since 2013. His 2.86 BB/9 was up form 2.11, and was also his highest rate since 2013. For the third straight season his WHIP rose from 1.12 to 1.21. His HR/9 continue to increase, from 1.21 to 1.35, as did his HR/FB ratio from 12.8 to 13.8 2016, along with a 13.8% home run-to-fly ball ratio. Obviously, opposing hitters are generating a lot of contact in the air, but they're also making solid contact. His 32.5% hard-contact rate was the ninth highest among National League starters. His 3.83 ERA increased for a third consecutive. With the way things have transpired for Hammel over the last two or three seasons, it's difficult to see him as a frontline starter anymore.
In his first outing, Karns came oout of the bullpen and allowed 4 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks in 0.2 innings, It was hardly an impressive 2017 debut. He has made 2 starts for KC since with much better results, allowing a combined 10 hits, but only 2 runs in11.2 innings, with 6 Ks and 4 walks. The 6/4 K/BB ratio is a concern. He finished last season with a 1.48 WHIP and a 5.15 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.23 xFIP and a 4.23 SIERA, were a little better than his hideous ERA, but still not good. Karns also posted the 6th-highest walk rate in the majors.
Yu Darvish has made 4 starts this season. Two of the have been outstanding quality starts. In those two, he gave up 9 hits and 1 run in 13 innings with 15 Ks and 5 BBs. In the other two,he gave up 7 hit and 8 rus (4 in each) over 11.2 innings with 8 Ks and 7 BBs. Conclision: When Darvish ius good, he's very good, and when he's not, he not awful. The walks could be a problem.
Darvish went under the knife for TJ surgery back in 2014. He missed the latter third of that season, all of 2015, and the first half of 2016. Once fully recovered, Darvish picked up right where he left off, posting a 7-5 record in 17 starts (100.1 IP), a 1.12 WHIP and a 3.41 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.08 SIERA and a 3.19 XFIP, were equally outstanding. . His 11.84 K/9 and 2.78 Bb/9 put him among the league's leaders. in K/BB ratio, and most notably, his 93.3 mph average velocity was a career best. Darvish entered the season with the highest K/9 rate in MLB history for a minimum of 100 appearances.
Darvish has a definite upside, and Hammel doessn't.
Edge - TEX
BULLPENS:
These are two bad pens, but KC's is definitely worse.
Edge - TEX
OFFENSES
Again we have two well below average offenses, but while TEX isn't very good, they're nowhere near as bad as the KC offense.
DEFENSE
Edge - TEX
Conclusion - TEX seems to have all the edges here. None is a huge edge but combined they all lean to the Rangers, and at this stage in their careers, I'll take Darvish over HammeI every time, especially against a woefully weak KC offense. I bet this first thing this morning because I knew it would onlky go up, and it has.
PICK - TEX ML (-175 for 2 units)
SEA @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
Yovani Gallardo has made three starts for the Mariners with less than stellar results. Hes yet to produce a quality start and has allowed 24 hits and 11 runs in 16 innings, with 9 Ks and 6 BBs. That's almost 2 baserunners per inning.
Gallardo was absolutely terrible for the Orioles last season, but that should come as no surprise to anyone, including the Os, who made the mistake of inserting him in their starting rotation. Gallardo posted a 6-8 record in 118 mostly bad innings. His WHIP was an ugly 1.58 and his ERA was an equally pathetic 5.42. His advanded metrics were equally dismal, a 5.04 FIP, a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. His BB rate of 11.6% was only slightly worse that his 16.2% K rate. I never understood why the O's acquired him. I fully understand why they let him go, and I certainly don't understand why the Mariners (1) acquired him, and (2) put him in the starting rotation???.
Andrew Triggs has made three starts for the As, and has yet to allow an earned run. He has two quality starts and miseed a thrird by just 1 out. In total he has allowed 11 hits and 3 runs (all unerarn) in 17.2 inning, with 9 Ks and 4 BBs.
The Athletics claimed Triggs off waivers last March. The 27-year-old Triggs posted a 1,23 WHIP, a 4.31 ERA, and a 23% strikeout rate in 56.1 innings in the bigs. His performance deserves a closer look. Specifically, Triggs struggled to the tune of a 5.76 ERA and an .828 OPS allowed in 17 appearances out of the bullpen, but he absolutely dominated as a starter. He made seven starts for the A’s, allowing a .536 OPS (with just 1BB) in 26.2 innings, fwith 23 Ks on the way to a 2.70 ERA. Triggs’ secret to success seems to be his sidearm action resulting in an intense release point and a srong). So far, Triggs has picked up right where he left off.
Edge - OAK
BULLPENS
Edge - OAK
OFFENSE
Edge - OAK
DEFENSE
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
-2.1
|
22
|
As
|
-3.2
|
27
|
Edge - SEA
Conclusion: Other than a really bad defense, OAK has all the edges, and most importantly SEA has Gallardo
PICK - OAK ML ((-122 for 2 units)
WASH @ NYM
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer has started three games for the Nats, and has produced three quality starts. He has allowed 10 hits and 5 runs (3 earner), with 24 Ks,7 BBs and 0 HRs.
Last season, Scherzer was a near unanimous choice as the NL Cy Young Award winner. Frankly I'd have given it to Jon Lester, but I ranked Scherzer #2, so I don't have a real problem with Scherzer.
Scherzer had an excellent season. He went 20-7 and posted a 0.97 WHIP and a 2.96 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.24 FIP, an 3.27 xFIP and a 3.05 SIERA were also superb, as were his 31.5% K rate and his 6.2% BB rate.
When Scherzer runs into trouble, it's because he's slightly HR prone. He's become a fly ball pitcher. The best fly ball pitchers usually limit HR's per fly ball and induce a lot of infield flies. Scherzer's 0.69 GB/FB ratio is the worst of his career , and his 12.9% HR/FB rate is the 2nd highest of his career. Scherzer can't quite keep the ball in the yard. His 1.14 HR/9 since joining the Nats is slightly below league average, and it's the only real blemish in an otherwise stellar record, and so far this season, it hasn't been a problem.
Zack Wheeler has made three starts for the Mets this season, and each one has been better than the previous one. In his first start, v <IA, Wheeler got lit up for 6 huts and 5 runs in just 4 innings, with 4 Ks and 1 BB. Un his next start, at PHIL, he allowed 4hits and 3 runs in 5.2 innings with 4 more Ks and 1 more BB. Imn his most recent start v MIA, Wheeler again allowed 4 hits, but just 1 run in 5 innings, with 7 Ks and 2 BBs.
Wheeler entered this season having not played in the majors in two years. After undergoing TJ surgery in the spring of 2015, Wheeler was slated to return during the 2016 season, but he ran into setbacks during the summer and ended the year having only made one rehab start. When Wheeler was last healthy in 2014, he used his 95 MPH fastball to generate both strikeouts (9.08 K/9) and grounders (54.0% GB%) in above-average numbers. Over his first three starts this season, his fastball was clocked at 94+ mph, with a 9.2 K/9, both close to where he was before, but his 44.2% GB rate was down almost 10%
BULLPENS
Both bullpen have really struggled this season. Last night, the Mets pen took the loss, while the Nats pen chalked up a win and a save.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSES
Edge - WASH - BIG
Conclusion: I think this games come down to the two starting pitchers, and while Gio Gonzalez has pitcher very l so far this season, Jacob deGrom has pitched even better. I also believe deGrom is more likely to continue doing so. My only concern is that the Nats do have Bryce Harper, and the Mets don't
DEFENSE
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
3.3
|
10
|
Mets
|
4.4
|
5
|
Edge -NY
Conclusion: This is simple, (1) both bullpens are struggling; (2) The Nats have the much better offense; (The Nats have the better starting pitcher; (4) The Nats have Bryce Harper, and by far he's the best player in this game and possibly in the league.
PICK - WASH - 1st 5 ML (-162 for 2 units) and WASH full Game ML (-150 for 2 units)