For what it's worth, the postseason is not easy to handicap . Our handicapping system is based on finding mismatches. In the postseason, the teams are all food, and much closer. The edges are often so minor that it's often close to a crapshoot than anything else. That why we cut all our wager amounts in half. That said, we still enjoy the challenge so here goes. After a crappy start to the postseason, we've been pretty hot, and are currently on a 17-3-1 in our last 21picks, after going 2-0 with our 1st 5 and ML picks on CHI in game 6!
On to today's game.
CHI @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
W %
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
1.20
|
3.56
|
3.51
|
3.72
|
22
|
19
|
53.7%
|
38
|
15
|
71.7%
|
75.3%
|
0.208
|
0.262
|
Indians
|
1.24
|
3.45
|
3.55
|
3.71
|
28
|
20
|
58.3%
|
37
|
11
|
77.1%
|
75.3%
|
0.231
|
0.288
|
Edge - CLEV slight
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.6
|
2
|
|
98
|
3
|
|
0.315
|
3
|
|
27.7
|
3
|
Indians
|
33.8
|
4
|
|
102
|
6
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
23.4
|
6
|
Edge - CHI small
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
88.6
|
1
|
Indians
|
7.9
|
9
|
Edge - CHI small
Kyle Hendricks has had a superb season. He finished with a 16-8 record, and 20 quality starts in his 30 outings (66.7%), including 10 of his last 11. Hendricks allowed more than 3 earned runs just 3 times all season (10%). Hendricks is 1-1 in 4 playoff starts, with a 1.02 WHIP, and a 1.31 ERA . Opponets are hitting .211 against him, as opposed to .207 during the regular season. The only thing that got in the way of a 2rd playoff win was a line drive that struck his right forearm in the 4th inning of NLDS Game 2. Hendricks was forced to leave leading 4-2, i a game the Cubs won 5-2. In Game 3, in CHI, Hendricks scattered 6 hits over 4.1 innings, but didn't allow any runs in an eventual 1-0 Cubs loss. At windy Wrigley Field on Saturday, Hendricks lacked command of his high-movement arsenal but still kept Chicago in the game. However, it was an 82 pitch outing which is a lot 4.1 innings. Hendricks led the NL in ERA (2.05) and generally keeps the ball down preventing big innings.
Corey Kluber has also had a tremendous season. He produced an 18-9 record, with 21 quality starts in his 32 outings (65.6%). Kluber did have 9 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (29.1%). In 5 postseason starts, Kluber has been superb, holding BOS to 3 hits in 7 shutout innings in the ALDS and then holding TOR to 10 hits and 2 earned runs in 11.1 innings in 2 ALCS starts. He followed that up by allowing 9 hits and just 1 earned run over 12 innings in games 1 and 4. Overall, Kluber has posted a 4-1 record, with a 0.99 WHIP, and a 0.89 ERA. Opponent are batting .200 against him, as compared to .216 during the regular season. Kluber who pitched 6 innings in both game 1 and game 4, will be making a 2nd consecutive outing on short rest, 3 days instead of the customary 4, which adds a physical and mental variable to this pressure packed outing. The Cubs did put the ball in play more in game 4 than they did in game 1. However, while Kluber iss going on one days' lest rest for the snd consecutive time, his pitch count (88/81) in those first two games wasn't particularly high. Kluber has been an underdog more in this postseason than he was during the entire regular season, and he's never been a dog at home. Maybe that provides a little more motivation? Probably not, it's game 7 of the World Series. How much more motivation do you need?
Both teams possess excellent bullpens, While the numbers above suggest that CLEV might have a slim edge here, I would point to this Fan Graphs piece which came out last week, which concludes that there is very little edge to be had here. I've kept it in my post since this series began because I think the bullpens will decide this series, So, I'm deviting a lot of time to the bullpens. According to author Jeff Sullivan last week: " I’m not entirely clear on just how much of an advantage the Indians really have... I went ahead and made some guesses about the upcoming bullpens. I gave Cleveland and Chicago seven relievers each, and then I plugged in their actual ERAs and FIPs, and their projected ERAs and FIPs. The last step was weighting the numbers, since the seventh reliever won’t pitch nearly as often as the first or second guy. Weighting requires its own guesses, but I assigned a number between 1 and 7 to each reliever. Zach McAllister, for example, got the 1, for Cleveland. Andrew Miller got the 7. I weighted the numbers by these designations.
Stats!
2016 World Series Bullpens
Team
|
Adj. ERA
|
Adj. FIP
|
Proj. ERA
|
Proj. FIP
|
Cubs
|
2.77
|
2.99
|
2.99
|
3.14
|
Indians
|
2.53
|
3.20
|
3.15
|
3.18
|
“Adj.” just means “Adjusted,” which is a different way of saying “Weighted.” The first two stat columns reflect what the relievers did in 2016. The last two stat columns reflect the projections for the relievers. The Indians look better in the very first column, but that’s also arguably the least-important column of the four. If you put everything together, the Cubs bullpen looks like it’s basically as good as the Indians’ unit. That isn’t something you’d necessarily expect, given that conversations we’ve all been having, but it might just be because relieving has been *the* strength of the Indians. The Cubs have had plenty go right, so the bullpen gets less attention.
The Indians’ big flashy advantage is Miller. Obviously. He can come in in any inning, and he can go multiple innings, and we don’t yet know how hard is too hard to push him. Miller has already handled so much of the workload, but based on precedent, that’s unlikely to keep up to such a degree, unless the Indians somehow manage to sweep. Aroldis Chapman is the Cubs’ equivalent, and he’s barely worse than Miller is. He’s just less flexible, and seemingly less durable. But the Cubs have been prepared to use him in multi-inning stints... The numbers say there’s not really a bullpen gap at all."
CLEV could have a small edge here because CHI manager Joe Maddon surprisingly used Aroldis Chapman for 1.1 innings last night. I say surprising because the Cubs were leading comfortably, 7-2, when Chapman entered the game. I don't understand why Maddon would use Chapman in that situation with a crucial game 7 coming up tonight. Wouldn't it be better to have a rested Chapman who could go 2 innings tonight? What am I missing here? After using Chapman for 8 outs in Game 5, and going to him in the 7th inning again in Game 6, Cubs manager Joe Maddon might need to be creative to finish the seventh game. There are rumors that Chapman could be slipping a bit, and that his velocity was down. He does have 2 blown saves this post season. All hands will be on deck for the Cubs . Jon Lester and John Lackey will both be available in relief. Meanwhile, the Indians used 5 relievers in yesterday's loss. but did not use either Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, or Bryan Shaw who combined have given up a total of 4 earned runs in 38 innings in the postseason. They’ll all be at full strength and available for 2 innings (or more) each.
As for offense, while both teams are well above average, the Cubs appear to have the better offense, but they are also streakier. They either hit a lot, or don't hit at all, and that been the case more often than not in this series. After a 22-inning slumber, the Cubs are now racking up runs much the way they did as the National League's best offense during the regular season.
Defensively, both team are again well above average, but the Cubs are ranked as the best defense in baseball.
The intangibles in this game are the managers and experience. Maddon and Francona are both solid managers, and they've both seemingly pushed all the right buttons so far. However, the bottom line is that Maddon hasn't been in a World Series, never mind a game 7, and Francona has, and he won twice. His record in both postseasons with Boston was 11-3 and he's 10-3 this season. In addition to the experience edge at manager, the Cubs are still a very young and inexperienced team. Along with Francona, Lester and Lackey are both postseason vets, but the same can't be said for most of the Cubs. They are mostly very young with very little experience.
The Cubs get an edge on offense and defense, but their offense can be flaky, in that they either hit a lot, or they don't hit at all. CLEV gets an edge in the bullpen and as for the starting pitchers, I don't see much of an edge here . The Cubs didn't get much off Kluber in games 1 or 4, and I don't expect them to get much off him here either. I also don't expect CLEV to get a lot off Hendricks tonight either. I actually don't see either team scoring much tonight, so I really like the under. As for the side my original inclination was to pass because it's just too close, but because it's so close, I'll take a flyer on the underdog Indians at home, with Kluber and the better rested bullpen.
PICK - 1st 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-112) UNDER 7 (-130) CLEV 1st 5 ( +108), and CLEV ML (+110)