Why I like the Cubs on Tuesday at -136…The Cubs come into Tuesdays game after a Game 1 loss where they faced a dominant Kluber and Company. A few trends that I like for the Cubs in this game is that they are 41-20 after a loss as well as being 6-2 after getting shutout on the season.
The Cubs will be starting their 18 game winner in Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has not been his usual self of late allowing 13 earned runs over his last 16 innings on 3 HRs. A few numbers that I really like with Arrieta heading into tonights game is that in 2016 on 6 Days+ of Rest, his era drops from a 3.20 in all of his starts to 1.39 over 32 innings where he allowed just 1 HR while going 4-0 in those starts. Throughout his career, Arrieta owns a 2.45 era on 6+ Days of Rest. In terms of this lineup that he will be facing, this current Indians squad has a combined just 47 ABs off of Arrieta.
The Indians will be starting Trevor Bauer who had to be removed in the first inning of his last start due to a bloody pinky…time will tell how that will affect Bauers grip of his off-speed pitches in a chilly Game 2 start. In Bauers last home start, he allowed 3 runs through 4 innings while allowing 2 HRs. Bauer has not shown much home success on the season as he carries a 4.65 era while allowing 16 HRs at home. Bauer also comes into this game on extra rest…during his 2016 campaign, he owns a 4.15 era through 17 innings while allowing 2 HRs on 6+ Days of Rest. The same goes for his career as he owns a 4.13 era through 76 innings while allowing 11 HRs on 6+ Days of Rest.
In terms of the bullpens for tonight, I believe you have to rule out the Indians best reliever in Andrew Miller as he threw a season high in pitches last night. That should play a major role as the Indians go to their pen earlier in Bauer starts.
Bet on the Cubs at -136
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