For what it's worth, the postseason has been difficult . Our handicapping system is based on finding mismatches. In the postseason, the teams are much closer, and the edges so minor that it's often close to a crapshoot. That why we cut all our wager amounts in half. That said, we still enjoy the challenge so here goes. Last Saturday we were 2-0, cashing both our ML and RL wagers on CHI
On to today's game.
CHI @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CHI
Bullpens
Dodgers
|
1.16
|
3.35
|
3.42
|
3.85
|
32
|
22
|
47
|
22
|
68.1%
|
76.90%
|
0.218
|
0.276
|
Cubs
|
1.20
|
3.56
|
3.51
|
3.72
|
22
|
20
|
38
|
16
|
70.4%
|
75.30%
|
0.208
|
0.262
|
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-13.6
|
12
|
|
98
|
12
|
|
0.314
|
20
|
|
25.3
|
5
|
Cubs
|
60.9
|
2
|
|
106
|
3
|
|
0.333
|
3
|
|
38.7
|
1
|
Edge - CHI
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
64.5
|
3
|
Cubs
|
116.1
|
1
|
Edge - CHI small
The's not much analysis required here. Kenta Maeda has had a good season for LA, but he's no Jon Lester. In additional to a Cy Young worthy regular season, Lester has been stellar in his 2 postseason starts allowing just 1 run in 14 innings. To top it all off, Lester is a lefty and the Dodgers really struggle against lefthanders. The Cubs have most of the other edges here as well.
Both teams possess excellent bullpens, with neither having a real edge here.
Offensively, the Cubs have the better offense. While their overall numbers are clearly better, the numbers are overwhelmingly better when we factor in their records v lefties and righties. The Cubs hit righties well (#9 wRC+, and #9 wOBRA), but the Dodgers can't hit lefties to save their lives(#30 wRC+ and #30 wOBRA). .
Defensively, both team are excellent, but the Cubs do rank slightly higher.
The Cubs have the better offense, a slightly better defense, and the better starting pitcher, with the bullpens being extremely. I'm all in on the Cubs tonight.
PICK - CHI 1st 5 Innings (-163), ML (-152) and RL (115)