For what it's worth, yesterday was back to reality day. We followed up our 10-1-1 Tuesday, with a 3-5 record on our posted plays yesterday, making us 114-96- 11 for September.
I doubt we'll be posting many plays over this weekend, with fewer meaningful games, so I'll update our MLB season now: 736-614-32 (54.5%) on our posted plays.
On to today's games. I only have 1 for 7 PM.
BALT @ TOR
TOR leads BALT by 1 games for the top AL wildcard spot, while BALT leads DET by 1, and SEA by 2 for the second wildcard spot. This game is important.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.29
|
3.42
|
3.87
|
4.12
|
32
|
14
|
54
|
14
|
79.4%
|
77.20%
|
0.242
|
0.293
|
Blue Jays
|
1.26
|
4.01
|
3.44
|
3.92
|
22
|
30
|
42
|
18
|
70.0%
|
74.10%
|
0.247
|
0.302
|
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
10.7
|
6
|
|
101
|
8
|
|
0.326
|
8
|
|
18.5
|
15
|
Blue Jays
|
15.1
|
5
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.328
|
4
|
|
22.8
|
7
|
Edge - TOR slight
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-27.4
|
26
|
Blue Jays
|
5.2
|
16
|
Edge - TOR small
In this game, these two teams are very evenly matched. TOR gets very small edges on offense and defense, but it all comes down to these two starting pitchers. Ubaldo Jimenez just isn't very good anymore. Yes, Jimenez had delivered 4 quality starts in a row prior to his last 2 outings , but I'm just not buying it. He's still allowed more hits (149) than innings pitched (135.2) and he's walked another 69. That's 218 base runners in just under 136 innings. That explains the 1.61 WHHIP and the 5.71 ERA. As for Marcus Stroman, he's only 9-9, but with 18 quality starts in his 31 outings (58.1%), including his last 3 and 4 of his last 5. However, Stroman has allowed more than 3 earned runs 11 times (35.5%). Marcus Stroman may be a somewhat iffy proposition, but Ubaldo Jimenez is still fade material form me. Apparently, the oddsmakers agree, and the ML in this game is around -200. That's too steep for me.
PICK - TOR RL (-101)