For what it's worth, yesterday was certainly a better day, than our Saturday from hell. We finished 6-4-1 on our posted plays. That brings our August posted plays to 147-123-9.
As for our winners: SD covered both the 1st 5 and ML as a dog at MIA. COL covered our 1st 5 wager at WASH, as a dog. PITT covered the ML v MIL. SF covered the RL and KC covered the ML, last night.
As for our losers: PITT failed to cover the 1st 5, by not scoring until the 6th. The Cubs lost 1-0 in extra innings giving us a ML and a RL loss (thank you Trevor Cahill, you worthless piece of sh*t. Your hit batsman put the winning run on 1st, your throwing error moved the winning run from 1st to 3 and puts another base runner at 2nd. From there a fielder's choice brings in the only run of the game.) Finally, the Royal blow a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 5th, when CF Orlando misjudges a fly ball (it bounced off his glove) , costing us a 1st 5 cover as well.
The Cubs 1st 5 also pushed
We may have to reevaluate the Cubs a bit. We are concerned that, being comfortably in control of their division, they may be easing up, and resting players in the final month. They are already, obviously, pulling their starting pitchers at around 100 pitches, no matter what
On to today's games
MIA @ NYM
For the purpose of comparison, we are using Montero'a 3 year average as a starter.
Edge - MIA
Jose Fernandez is having a Cy Young season for the Marlins. He's 13-7, with 16 quality starts in his 24 outings (66.7%), including 6 of his last 8, and 11 of his last 14. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times this season (25%), 2 earned runs or less 15 times and 1 or less 12 times. Fernandez has also struck out 213 ( a Marlins record) while walking just 44 in his 148.2 innings. His current 12.9 K:9 rate, should he maintain it, would be the third best single-season K:9 rate among qualifying starting pitchers in MLB history. He's only walked more than 2 in a start twice in his last 19 starts. However, Fernandez has not been quite as effective on the road, posting a 3-5 record, a 1.29 WHIP, a 4.42 ERA, and 5 quality starts in his 10 road starts. Not awful, but not as good either.
Rafael Montero will start this game in place of Jacob deGrom, who is being skipped due to fatigue and to work on mechanical issues. Montero opened the season at Triple-A Las Vegas but was demoted due to poor performance after he posted a 4.60 ERA in 16 starts. With his prospect status diminished and his career prospects hanging by a thread, Montero turned it around at Double-A Binghamton, posting a 1.70 ERA in eight starts, although he did walk 19 in 47.2 innings. Between 2014 and 2015, Montero has started 9 games for the Mets. He's compiled a 1-3 record, allowing 47 hits and 22 earned runs in 48.2 innings, with 46 strikeouts and 22 walks. That translates to a 1.42 WHIP, a 4.07 ERA, 3 quality starts and 1 near miss (5.2 IP, 3 ER). He also allowed more than 4 earned runs twice .
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
1.33
|
3.57
|
3.90
|
4.19
|
26
|
22
|
46
|
24
|
65.7%
|
75.60%
|
0.229
|
0.295
|
Mets
|
1.28
|
3.73
|
3.62
|
4.05
|
20
|
16
|
43
|
12
|
78.2%
|
75.40%
|
0.233
|
0.292
|
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
-33.5
|
19
|
|
94
|
18
|
|
0.316
|
15
|
|
18.2
|
10
|
Mets
|
-42.6
|
20
|
|
94
|
18
|
|
0.310
|
22
|
|
12.5
|
18
|
Edge - MIA
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
50.2
|
4
|
Mets
|
12.1
|
13
|
Edge - MIA
In this game, the Mets have just one edge, the better bullpen, and even that edsge is not an overwhelming one. Further, to capitalize on that edge, the Mets will need to keep this game close into the late innings. I'm not sure that will be the case. As for the Marlin they have the offensive edge, but that's not overwhelming either, and the better defense. The biggest edge in this game is at starting pitcher, and it belongs to MIA. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and a Cy Young contender. The worst we can say about him is that 6 of his starts have been bad. That's 25%. Of those bad starts, 4 of them were on the road. Fernandez has started 10 road games this season, so 40% of them were bad. So there is about a 40% chance Fernandez throws a dud. As for Raphael Montero, he has yet to stick with the Mets, and in his 9 career starts, he's been mediocre. This season, he performed badly at the Triple A level and was demoted to Double A, where he was better, but still issued too many walks. He's only getting the star because deGrom can't go. So with the better offense, the better defense and the better starting pitcher, with a 60% probability of tossing a good game.
PICK - MIA ML 1st 5 Innings (-161) and ML (-147)
WASH @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
Edge - WASH
Tanner Roark is quietly having a very good season for the Nationals. I say quietly because more heralded teammates Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer were grabbing all the headlines, while Roarke quietly went about his business. He's compiled a 13-7 record with 18 quality starts in his 26 outings (69.2%), including 5 of his last 6, and 6 of his last 8. Roark has now held opponents to one or fewer runs in 5 of his last 9. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 7 times this season (26.9%). Roark has allowed just 14 HRs in 168.1 innings, a key factor behind his sparkling 2.99 ERA. However Roark is currently struggling with his commandm as he has a 28:18 K:BB over his last 7 starts.
Tanner Roark might be struggling a bit, right now, but Jake Thompson's rokie MLB season has been a disaster. He's started 4 games and holds a 1-3 record, and has yet to go more than 5 innings in any of them, much less throw a quality start. He's allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of the 4. Thompson has allowed more hits (22) than innings pitched (19.1). He's also allowed 5 HRs in 4 starts, and has walked as many (13) as he's fanned (13). There's just nothing positive here.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Nationals
|
1.21
|
3.27
|
3.54
|
3.90
|
15
|
19
|
34
|
11
|
75.6%
|
75.80%
|
0.233
|
0.294
|
Phillies
|
1.38
|
4.39
|
3.81
|
4.16
|
20
|
18
|
37
|
12
|
75.5%
|
75.30%
|
0.258
|
0.308
|
Edge - WASH
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
11.9
|
8
|
|
100
|
10
|
|
0.326
|
9
|
|
21.4
|
5
|
Phillies
|
-103.6
|
29
|
|
81
|
29
|
|
0.296
|
29
|
|
7.8
|
27
|
Edge - WASH
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
45.7
|
5
|
Phillies
|
24.5
|
7
|
Edge - WASH - very close
In this game, WASH has all the edges. They have the better bullpen, the better offense and the slightly better defense. And in the biggest edge, they have Tanner Roark squaring off with Jake Thompson. Roark may well be struggling a little right now, but Thomson's been an unmitigated disaster. Granted, it always scary betting on the Nationals. Their offense is extremely night and day. Some days, they hit anybody and some days they can't hit even the most mediocre pitchers. There's no rhyme or reason to it. It just happens. However, WASH didn't hit very well v SD this weekend, but I expect that to change tonight against Thompson tonight. We're still waiting for one good start from Thompson and I bet we'll still be waiting for it tomorrow. I'm fading Thompson, but with the ML sitting at -190.
PICK - WASH RL (-115)
TB @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
Edge - BOS
Matt Andriese actually pitched pretty well as a starter back in May. However, he's been shuffled between the starting rotation and the bullpen all season. He's started 13 games and pitched out of the bullpen 10 times for the Rays. As a starter, Andriese has posted a 5-4 record with 5 quality starts (38.5%). However, 4 of those quality starts were back in May, when he was 3-0 with 4 quality starts in his 5 outings. In his other 8 starts since then, Andriese is 2-4, with a 1.35 WHIP, a 5.63 ERA and 1 quality start.
Rick Porcello is having a great season for the Red Sox. He's 17-3, with 19 quality starts in his 26 outings (73.1%), including his last 6, and 10 of his last 11. He also missed a 20th quality start by just 1 out. Porcello has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times (23.1%), and more than 4 just once. His 17 wins are already a career high, and since the beginning of July, Porcello is 8-1, with a 0.92 WHIP, a 2.48 ERA and 9 quality starts in his 10 outings (65 IP). You can't pitch much better than that. Porcello has been incredibly consistent, every 5 days he gives BOS 6 or 7 innings, doesn't allow more than 3 runs, and gives the Red Sox a chance to win. BOS is 19-7 when Porcello starts, and has won 11 of his last 13 starts. With due respect to David Price, Porcello has become the staff ace and is a Cy Young contender. The Red Sox are right in the middle of the AL East race, and Porcello is a big reason why.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
1.35
|
4.16
|
3.79
|
4.06
|
15
|
22
|
32
|
12
|
72.7%
|
76.80%
|
0.257
|
0.303
|
Red Sox
|
1.31
|
3.87
|
3.66
|
4.13
|
18
|
22
|
33
|
14
|
70.2%
|
73.30%
|
0.236
|
0.302
|
Edge - BOS
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-7.3
|
12
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.314
|
21
|
|
14.2
|
16
|
Red Sox
|
91
|
1
|
|
113
|
1
|
|
0.347
|
1
|
|
27.3
|
2
|
Edge - BOS
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-18.1
|
24
|
Red Sox
|
4.2
|
17
|
Edge - BOS
In this rematch from last week, BOS has all the edges. Of course they did in TB last week and still lost 4-3, as both Porcello and Andriese tossed quality starts. Still, BOS has the better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. And as for these two pitchers, Andriese has been mostly mediocre since his hot May, while Porcello's been stellar. I'll put my money on the better team with the better starting pitcher and the better everything else.
PICK - BOS ML 1st 5 Innings (-147) and ML (-168)
MINN @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CLEV
Hector Santiago is not having a particularly good season, and it's gotten much worse since his trade to the Twins. He has a 10-8 record, but with just 8 quality starts in his 26 outings (30.8%), and none since joining the Twins. Santiago has also allowed at least 4 earned runs 12 times (46.2%), including each of his last 4. Since joining the Twins, he has allowed 32 hits and 23 earned runs in 19 innings and 0 quality starts. That translates to a WHIP of 1.84 and an ERA of 10.89 as a Twin.
Trevor Bauer's having an OK season for CLEV. He's 9-6, with 13 quality starts in his 21 outings (61.9%), including his last 2, and 3 of his last 4. Bauer has also allowed more than 4 earned runs in 5 starts (23.8%).
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
1.39
|
4.26
|
3.77
|
4.15
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
13
|
61.8%
|
73.50%
|
0.269
|
0.320
|
Indians
|
1.28
|
3.54
|
3.72
|
3.92
|
19
|
17
|
27
|
11
|
71.1%
|
75.40%
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Edge - CLEV
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-8.7
|
13
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
13
|
|
11.8
|
20
|
Indians
|
31.5
|
3
|
|
103
|
7
|
|
0.328
|
7
|
|
22.7
|
3
|
Edge - CLEV
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-34.1
|
29
|
Indians
|
21.4
|
9
|
Edge - CLEV
In this game CLEV has every edge, the better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. As far as the starting pitchers go, Trevor Bauer isn't the most consistent pitcher, by any means. He's been very streaky, but he's been good over 60% of the time. As for Hector Santiago, he wasn't bad in LA, but since he's arrived in MINN, it's been one disaster after another. He's making Twins fans wish that they hadn't traded Ricky Nolasco for him. That's really bad. I'm fading Santiago
PICK - CLEV RL (100)