For what it's worth, yesterday was pretty much total crap, as we finished 3-7 on our posted plays. That brings our August posted plays to 119-97-7.
We didn't end up on many games, but most of the ones we did play, we should have passed on.
HTN 1st 5 and ML L - L We can't seem to get either teams right. They are both very mediocre and don't deserves to make the playoffs.
COL - 1st 5 and ML W - L I should have stuck with 1st 5 only. COL pen can't be trusted .
KC - ML W A strong outing for Ventura and Cashner.
SEA - 1st 5 and ML L- L If they can't hit Sabathia, the M's don't belong in the playoffs either
CUBS - RL W At least here's one thing we can usually count on
SF - 1st 5 and ML L- L We thought we could count on Mad Bum, guess not. What's wrong with the Giants?
On to today's games
HTN @ PITT
Collin McHugh has epitomized mediocrity this season. He's 7-10, with 11 quality starts in his 25 outings (44%), including 6 of his last 10. He also missed another by just 1 out, However, in the other 3, he was shelled to the tune of 24 hits and 17 earned runs in just 10 innings. For the season McHugh has allowed at least 4 earned runs 9 times (36%), and has allowed 32 more hits (169) than innings pitched (137). The best thing I can say about McHugh is that he is still a little more likely to have a good outing than a bad one, but that's certainly not enough to bet $ on him.
Considering everything that he's gone through this season, Gerrit Cole was pitching pretty well, that is until he walked into that LA Dodger buzz saw 2 starts ago. However, he did bounce back (sort of) from that fiasco with a quality start v MIA in his last outing, but he allowed 12 hits, and walked another 3 in 6.2 innings. He's very lucky to have only given up 3 runs. On the season Cole is only 7-8, with 11 quality starts in his 19 outings (57.9%). He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times this season (21%). Since he returned to the rotation, after his most recent stint on the DL, Cole is just 2-3, with a 1.50 WHIP, a 4.20 ERA and 3 quality starts in his 7 outings. He is probably a little more likely to have a good outing than McHugh is, but again, that's not nearly enough to bet $ on.
Edge - PITT slight
This matchup is actually pretty even. Statistically, Cole is a little more likely to have a good outing than McHugh is, and McHugh is a little more likely to have a bad one. I don't trust eith pitcher much.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
1.12
|
3.40
|
2.95
|
3.26
|
20
|
14
|
32
|
16
|
66.7%
|
76.60%
|
0.233
|
0.296
|
Pirates
|
1.33
|
3.46
|
4.08
|
4.34
|
20
|
14
|
41
|
14
|
74.5%
|
76.80%
|
0.246
|
0.294
|
HTN has one of the best bullpens in baseball. Their metrics are over a run lower than PITT's.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-22.8
|
17
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
15.4
|
12
|
Pirates
|
-5.6
|
13
|
|
99
|
11
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
14.7
|
14
|
Edge - NONE
The numbers would seem to lean a little toward PITT, but HTN actually hits righties a little better (rank # 13) than PITT does (rank #18)
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.3
|
16
|
Pirates
|
3.9
|
18
|
Edge - HTN slight
Last night, I lost with PITT even though IMO PITT had the better starting pitcher. Last night i lost with HTN as I gave the kid another shot, and Musgrove crapped the bed again. In this games, both the offenses and defenses are very close, so there's no discernible edge to be found. In the bullpens, HTN has the clear edge, with one of the best bullpens in baseball. As for the two starting pitchers, who the hell knows. McHugh has tossed quality starts just 44% of the time, and gets blown up 36% of the time, and has allowed 32 more hits (169) than innings pitched (137). As for Cole, he's more likely to toss a QS (58%) and less likely to get blown up (21%). However, since coming of the DL, Cole is just 2-3, with a 1.50 WHIP, a 4.20 ERA and 3 quality starts in his 7 outings. And that assumes you can still call a start in which he allowed 12 hits and 3 walks in 6.2 IP a quality start, because he only allowed 3 runs. Gun to my head, I lean PITT, but there's no gun and I haven't picked a game right in this series. So I'm agreeing with my friend Shaka. I think at least one of these 2 guys gets hit, and quite possibly both.
PICK - 1st 5 OVER 4 (-110) and OVER 7.5 (-110)
COL @ MIL
Rookie Tyler Anderson has now made 13 starts for the Rockies. He's only 4-4, but he has posted 8 quality starts (61.5%), and missed a 9th and a 10th by just 1 out in each. He has allowed more than 3 runs just 3 times (23.1%), but 2 of them were his last 2 starts. Anderson has allowed 2 or less in 8 of his starts. He's gone at least 5.2 innings in 12 of his starts and 6 or more in 10 of them. Anderson also has an excellent 67/18 K/BB rate.
Zack Davies was having a very good season for the not very good Brewers, until hist last 2 starts. For the season, he's 9-6, with 11 quality starts in his 22 outings (50%), including 5 of his last 8, and 9 of his last 13. He also missed 2 more quality starts by just 1 out in each. After a horrible April, in which he compiled an 0-3 record, with a 2.25 WHIP and an 8.78 ERA, Davies completely turned it around. Since May 1, he's 9-3, with a 1.13 WHIP and 3.64 ERA. He has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times since May 1, after allowing more than 3 in all of his April starts. However, 2 of those bad outing occurred in his last 2 starts. The Reds got to him for 8 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings at home, and the Cubs rocked him for 10 hits and 7 runs in his last start at CHI.
Edge - COL
Anderson has the better numbers, pretty much across the board.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.42
|
4.79
|
3.99
|
4.28
|
17
|
22
|
31
|
20
|
60.8%
|
68.80%
|
0.266
|
0.315
|
Brewers
|
1.40
|
3.88
|
4.02
|
4.34
|
16
|
18
|
36
|
14
|
72.0%
|
76.00%
|
0.256
|
0.307
|
Edge - MIL
Neither of these bullpens is very good, and they appear to be very evenly matched. MIL might have a small edge, but MIL traded it's closer, Jeffress, to TEX at the trade deadline, significantly weakening their pen. The numbers may say this close, but I've watched this COL pen self destruct one too many times (including last night - blowing a 4-2 lead after 6) to have any faith in them. They've cost me dearly this season.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-43
|
21
|
|
93
|
20
|
|
0.340
|
2
|
|
13
|
18
|
Brewers
|
-51.6
|
23
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.316
|
19
|
|
8.9
|
26
|
Edge - NONE
It may look like COL has s small edge, but COL hits much better at Coors, which means that their overall numbers are low for COL at home, and high for COL on the road. Further, MIL hits lefties much better (rank #6) than COL hits righties (rank #20). So I'll call them even.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
23.7
|
8
|
Brewers
|
-6.2
|
21
|
Edge - COL
COL is clearly the better defensive team.
Again today, this game is definitely not a "no brainer". It is close. The numbers say that the two bullpens are evenly matched. After what I saw again last night, I'm not sure that's the case. The COL bullpen really sucks, and can't be trusted. The two offense are pretty even, and COL does have the better defense. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Anderson's been mostly very good, but has struggled some in his last 2 outings. Davies was lousy in April, but has been very good since. That is until his last 2 starts, in which he got rocked big time. Anderson does have the better numbers, so I lean to COL, but I just can't bet on COL to win this game with that atrocious bullpen. So I'll bet on the better starting pitcher to hold the fort for 5 innings. I'm even tempted to bet MIL to actually win the game, but I don't trust them either
PICK - COL ML 1st 5 Innings (-125)
CHI Cubs @ SD
Kyle Hendricks is having a very good season for the Cubs. He's compiled an 11-7 record, with 14 quality starts in his 23 outings (60.9%), including his last 4, and 6 of his last 7, and missing the 7th by just 1 out. He's also allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice all season (8.7%), and has held his opponents to 1 earned run or less in 8 of his past 11 starts, an incredible run in which he has gone 7-1. Hendricks biggest problem early in the season was his inability to go deep into games. He's failed to go 6 innings in 8 of his starts, and has gone more than 6 just 8 times. That, however, hasn't been a problem in his last 7 outings, as he went at least 6 in 6 of them, and more than 6 in 4 of them. That includes a complete game shutout v MIA 3 starts ago, a 7.1 inning outing at OAK, in which he allowed 3 hits and 1 run, and ia7 inning outing with 5 hits, 2 earned runs and 12 strikeouts 2 starts ago. Hendricks has dominated hitters despite his lack of velocity (his fastball averages less than 90 mph), and has managed to strike out 127 hitters over 146 innings. Hendricks hasn't been quite as good on the road, where he's just 3-6, with a 1.16 WHIP and a 3.25 ERA and just 5 quality starts in his 11 road outings.
Paul Clemens (not t be confused with Roger) has made 7 starts for MIA and SD without much to show for them. He's 2-2, without a single quality start. He hasn't been truly awful, he just hasn't been very good either. In his 7 starts, Clemens has allowed 36 hits (including 10 HRs), and 20 earned runs, with 24 strikeouts and 17 walks in 33.2 innings. That translates to a 1.57 WHIP and a 5.36 ERA. He hasn't gone more than 5 innings in any of his starts, and usually allows about 3 runs before getting pulled, and as noted above, he tends to give up the long ball. That's not a good thing, when you're facing the Cubs.
Edge - CHI
The numbers say it all. Hendricks is much better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
1.24
|
3.68
|
3.65
|
3.88
|
16
|
16
|
27
|
15
|
64.3%
|
75.10%
|
0.215
|
0.267
|
Padres
|
1.35
|
4.42
|
4.04
|
4.43
|
21
|
14
|
25
|
14
|
64.1%
|
70.80%
|
0.242
|
0.291
|
Edge - CHI big
The Cubs are better pretty much across the board
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47
|
3
|
|
106
|
4
|
|
0.335
|
3
|
|
28.2
|
1
|
Padres
|
-42.3
|
20
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.302
|
28
|
|
10.9
|
22
|
Edge - CHI
This is not close
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
79.3
|
1
|
Padres
|
3.8
|
19
|
Edge - CHI
The Cubs have every edge - bullpen - offense - defense - starting pitcher. Paul Clemens would kill to have overall numbers close to Henricks' road numbers. Enough said. Once in a while, they may not cover, but in betting the CUBS RL, I've cashed a lot more than I've trashed, so here we go again
PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-149)
WASH @ BALT
Wade Miley wasn't having a very good season in SEA, and that didn't change when he was traded to BALT. He's compiled a 7-10 record, with just 9 quality starts in his 23 outings (39%), and only 1 since arriving in BALT. He also has 12 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (52.2%). In his 4 starts since being acquired by the Orioles, Miley is 0-2, with a 1.94 WHIP, a 9.53 ERA and 1 quality start. He's allowed 14 hit and 13 runs (12 earned) in 6 combined innings, over his last 2 starts. Miley hasn't turned out to be much of an acquisition.
Tanner Roark is quietly having a very good season for the Nationals. I say quietly because more heralded teammates Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer were grabbing all the headlines, while Roarke quietly went about his business. He's compiled a 13-6 record with 18 quality starts in his 25 outings (72%), including his last 5, 7 of his last 9. Roark has now held opponents to one or fewer runs in 5 of his last 8. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times this season (24%). Roark has allowed just 13 HRs in 163.1 innings, a key factor behind his sparkling 2.87 ERA.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Miley - L
|
1.43
|
5.58
|
4.52
|
4.38
|
6.63
|
2.72
|
1.47
|
0.284
|
0.314
|
67.50%
|
Roark - R
|
1.18
|
2.91
|
4.26
|
4.09
|
7.16
|
2.85
|
0.73
|
0.234
|
0.278
|
78.40%
|
Edge - WASH
Roark has all the edges here.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.30
|
3.42
|
3.98
|
4.21
|
27
|
11
|
45
|
13
|
77.6%
|
77.50%
|
0.237
|
0.288
|
Nationals
|
1.20
|
3.19
|
3.54
|
3.89
|
15
|
18
|
34
|
11
|
75.6%
|
76.10%
|
0.231
|
0.293
|
Edge - WASH
Both bullpens are good, but the extensive use of the O's pen is an ongoing concern.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
17.4
|
6
|
|
104
|
6
|
|
0.331
|
4
|
|
16
|
10
|
Nationals
|
-0.6
|
10
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.323
|
10
|
|
19.7
|
5
|
Edge - BALT
BALT definitely gets the edge, but WASH hit lefties almost as well (rank #4) as BALT hits righties (rank #3)
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-18.4
|
25
|
Nationals
|
45.7
|
5
|
Edge - WASH
WASH has the much better defense.
In this game, WASH has most of the edges. BALT does have the better offense, but as we noted WASH hits lefties very well minimizing that edge, especially considering that Wade Miley is the lefty they'll be facing. WASH has the better bullpen and the better defense. Most significantly, WASH has the much better starting pitcher. Tanner Roark has been about as consistently good as any pitcher out there. Wade Miley has been very consistent as well, consistently awful, that is. And, he's been even worse since he got to BALT.
PICK - WASH ML 1st 5 Innings (-154) and WASH ML (-156)
BOS @ TB
Rick Porcello is having a great season for the Red Sox. He's 17-3, with 18 quality starts in his 25 outings (72%), including his last 5, and 9 of his last 10. He also missed a 19th quality start by just 1 out. Porcello has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times (24%), and more than 4 just once. His 17 wins are already a career high, and since the beginning of July, Porcello is 8-1, with a 0.89 WHIP, a 2.35 ERA and 8 quality starts in his 9 outings (65 IP). You can't pitch much better than that. Porcello has been incredibly consistent, every 5 days he gives BOS 6 or 7 innings, doesn't allow more than 3 runs, and gives the Red Sox a chance to win. BOS is 19-6 when Porcello starts, and has won 11 of his last 12 starts. With due respect to David Price, Porcello has become the staff ace and is a Cy Young contender. The Red Sox are right in the middle of the AL East race, and Porcello is a big reason why.
Matt Andriese actually pitched pretty well as a starter back in May. However, he's been shuffled between the starting rotation and the bullpen all season. He's started 12 games and pitched out of the bullpen 10 times for the Rays. As a starter, Andriese has posted a 5-4 record with 4 quality starts (33.3%). However, all of those quality starts were back in May, when he was 3-0 with 4 quality starts in his 5 outings. In his other 6 starts since then, Andriese is 2-4, with a 1.50 WHIP, a 6.14 ERA and no quality starts. He has now has 2 consecutive rough starts, giving up 11 earned runs on 15 hits (including 6 HRs) over the 10.1 innings he's pitched in that span.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Porcello - R
|
1.04
|
3.22
|
3.86
|
3.93
|
7.47
|
1.53
|
1.04
|
0.230
|
0.267
|
74.80%
|
Andriese - R
|
1.26
|
4.08
|
4.21
|
4.20
|
7.24
|
2.24
|
1.19
|
0.258
|
0.296
|
72.60%
|
Edge - BOS big
Porcello is having a career season, while Andriese is really struggling right now.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
1.32
|
3.96
|
3.68
|
4.15
|
18
|
21
|
32
|
14
|
69.6%
|
73.00%
|
0.238
|
0.303
|
Rays
|
1.37
|
4.28
|
3.85
|
4.13
|
14
|
22
|
31
|
12
|
72.1%
|
76.50%
|
0.260
|
0.304
|
Edge - BOS
Most of the numbers lean in BOS' direction, not by a wide margin, but still BOS gets the edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
94.9
|
1
|
|
115
|
1
|
|
0.351
|
1
|
|
27
|
2
|
Rays
|
-2.9
|
11
|
|
99
|
11
|
|
0.314
|
21
|
|
13.2
|
17
|
Edge - BOS
The Rays are a little above average, but the Red Sox have the best offense in baseball.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
4.2
|
17
|
Rays
|
-18.1
|
24
|
Edge - BOS
Neither team has a great defense, but TB is much worse.
In this matchup the Red Sox have all the advantages. They possess the better bullpen, the best offense in baseball and the much better starting pitcher. Rick Porcello is a legitimate Cy Young contender. As for Matt Andriese, he put up his best numbers way back in May. Since then, he's been at best mediocre, and recently much worse.
PICK - BOS ML 1st 5 Innings (-130), ML (-130) and RL (+126)
TEX @ CIN
Yu Darvish returned from Tommy John surgery in late May, only to go back on the disabled list with shoulder pain in early June, after three starts. Darvish returned from the 15-day disabled list hours before his July 16 start Saturday against the Cubs. In the 7 starts since his reactivation, Darvish has produced a 2-3 record, a 1.04 WHIP, a 2.70 ERA, a 57:8 K:BB ratio, and 6 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Pitchers coming back from TJ surgery often struggle to regain their control, but Darvish has been laser-sharp with only 4 walks while striking out 48 batters in his last 6 starts. He has been a bit prone to the long ball, but hasn't been hurt badly because he's allowing so few base runners.
Tim Adleman has only started 5 games for the Reds. He's posted a 2-1 record with 1 quality start. His ERA is a very good 2.96, as he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his starts. However his 1.40 WHIP is quite high and troubling . He's allowed 23 hits in 24.1 innings, but he's also walked another 11, which means 34 base runners in just over 24 innings. He only pitched more than 5 innings once, and is averaging a little less than 5 innings per start.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Darvish - R
|
1.07
|
2.75
|
2.91
|
2.96
|
11.59
|
2.14
|
1.37
|
0.219
|
0.288
|
83.70%
|
Adleman - R
|
1.40
|
2.96
|
5.06
|
5.45
|
7.03
|
4.07
|
1.11
|
0.250
|
0.286
|
88.40%
|
Edge - TEX
Darvish has much better numbers. His metrics are over 2 runs better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rangers
|
1.41
|
4.78
|
4.03
|
4.26
|
30
|
19
|
43
|
15
|
74.1%
|
71.60%
|
0.269
|
0.307
|
Reds
|
1.49
|
5.09
|
4.42
|
4.84
|
19
|
25
|
22
|
20
|
52.4%
|
72.70%
|
0.249
|
0.281
|
Edge - TEX
The TEX bullpen is, by no means, great, but it is much better than the Reds. The Reds pen is much better than it was earlier in the year, but it's still the worst in baseball, and TEX upgraded their pen at the dealine with th acqusition of closer Jeffress.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
-31.2
|
19
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.322
|
12
|
|
13.9
|
15
|
Reds
|
-87.5
|
28
|
|
84
|
28
|
|
0.306
|
25
|
|
9.2
|
25
|
Edge - TEX
The Rangers don't have a great offense, but it is much better than the Reds.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
7.8
|
15
|
Reds
|
32.5
|
6
|
Edge - CIN
It's not a big edge, but CIN does have the better defense.
In the game TEX has the better offense, the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher. Darvish has been very impressive, since his return. Adleman, on the other hand is still a project and needs improvement. I bet the ML this morning, fully expecting it to go up and it has. It;s over -200 now
PICK - TEX ML (-170) and RL (-130)
PHIL @ CHI WS
Jerad Eickhoff was one of the centerpieces of last year's deadline trade that sent Cole Hamels to the Rangers. He only has a 8-12 record, but he's pitching much better than that, posting a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.91 ERA with a 128/35 K/BB in 149.2 innings. He has tossed 13 quality starts in his 25 outings (52%), and missed a 14th and a 15th by just a single out. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times all season (24%). He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 11 starts.
James Shields is having a terrible season. He 5-15, with 14 quality starts in his 25 outings(56%). However, He's allowed 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his starts (40%), amd over 6 earned runs in 8 of them, including his last 4. Since se joined the White Sox, Shield has produced a 3-8 record with a 2.03 WHIP, an 8.47 ERA .
Edge - PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
1.38
|
4.48
|
3.82
|
4.17
|
20
|
18
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
75.50%
|
0.259
|
0.308
|
White Sox
|
1.45
|
3.76
|
4.20
|
4.38
|
20
|
17
|
37
|
24
|
60.7%
|
75.30%
|
0.250
|
0.309
|
Edge - PHIL
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-104.3
|
29
|
|
80
|
29
|
|
0.297
|
29
|
|
6.5
|
28
|
White Sox
|
-62.2
|
25
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.307
|
23
|
|
6.6
|
27
|
Edge - CHI slight - they both stink
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
24.5
|
7
|
White Sox
|
-22.3
|
26
|
Edge - PHIL
PICK - PHIL ML 1st 5 Innings (-110) and ML (-104)