PHIL @ ATL
Vincent Velasquez is having a very good season for PHIL. He's 8-2, with 7 quality starts in his 17 outings. He allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks while striking out 5 over 6 innings, but received no decision is his last outing at the Pirates. Velasquez entered the 6th inning with a 4-2 lead, but after giving up a 2 run homer, he ended up with a no-decision. This was the first time in his last 7 starts that he's allowed more than 2 runs in an outing. He's allowed more than 3 earned run just 4 times all season. Velasquez has 3 wins, a 2.70 ERA and a 30:12 K:BB in 30 innings since coming back from his stint on the DL with a biceps injury.
Tyrell Jackson has started 3 games for the Braves after 4 appearances out of the bullpen. In those 3 starts, he's 0-1, with 1 quality start at CIN. He's allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs in those 14 innings. He's also issued 10 walks while striking out just 5. That's 26 base runners in 14 innings, which explains the 1.86 WHIP and 6.83 ERA as a starter.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Velasquez
|
1.29
|
3.34
|
3.72
|
3.78
|
10.11
|
3.34
|
3.03
|
1.08
|
0.244
|
0.317
|
79.20%
|
Jenkins
|
1.86
|
6.43
|
6.95
|
7.27
|
3.21
|
6.43
|
0.5
|
2.57
|
0.286
|
0.255
|
79.40%
|
The numbers are clear and overwhelming. It's Velazquez big.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
1.37
|
4.47
|
3.79
|
4.11
|
15
|
15
|
29
|
10
|
74.4%
|
74.60%
|
0.255
|
0.306
|
Braves
|
1.45
|
4.21
|
3.98
|
4.24
|
15
|
22
|
19
|
15
|
55.9%
|
72.70%
|
0.253
|
0.319
|
Neither bullpen is very good, but of the two, the numbers say that the Phillies have the better pen.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-97.7
|
29
|
|
79
|
29
|
|
0.293
|
29
|
|
3.9
|
28
|
Braves
|
-114.6
|
30
|
|
76
|
30
|
|
0.287
|
30
|
|
1.8
|
30
|
These are probably the two worst offenses in baseball. Neither really deserves to have an edge, but of the two ATL is the worst.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
15.8
|
11
|
Braves
|
9.1
|
14
|
Both of these teams are solid defensively, but the Phillies are a little better.
In this game everything is relative. PHIL has a bad offense, but ATL is slightly worse. PHIL has a mediocre bullpen, but ATL's is a little worse. ATL's defense in about average, but PHIL's is a little better. The only really big edge here is in the starting pitchers. Vincent Velasquez is a quality starting pitcher, Tyrell Jenkins is not., and that's where this pick is coming from.
PICK - PHIL 1st 5 ML (-140) and PHIL ML (-139)
CHI WS @ MINN
Jose Quintana should be suing the White Sox offense for non support. He's only 8-8 with 14 quality starts in his 20 outings. Quintana just can't catch a break. In his last start, he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4our, but received a no decision against the Tigers. Quintana was staked to a 4 run lead in the 2, but the White Sox bullpen blew a 3 run lead in the 9th. He has now held opponents to 1 or fewer runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs in Quintana's 8 losses. Quintana has allowed more than 3 runs just 5 times this season.
Ricky Nolasco has not pitched very well for the Twins. He's 4-8, with 9 quality starts in his 20 outings, including 3 of his last 4. However, he also has 10 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, including his last one, in which he allowed 6 in just 2 innings at BOS. Nolaso has allowed 136 hits and another 28 walks in just under 117 innings, which explains the 1.41 WHIP and 5.40 ERA.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Quintana
|
1.10
|
2.97
|
3.94
|
4.03
|
8.01
|
2.21
|
3.63
|
0.9
|
0.232
|
0.280
|
80.00%
|
Nolasco
|
1.41
|
5.40
|
4.44
|
4.53
|
6.71
|
2.16
|
3.11
|
1.31
|
0.289
|
0.325
|
63.30%
|
This looks to be a mismatch. Quintana's numbers are clearly better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
White Sox
|
1.48
|
3.77
|
4.11
|
4.26
|
15
|
13
|
28
|
19
|
59.6%
|
75.20%
|
0.254
|
0.316
|
Twins
|
1.39
|
4.42
|
3.66
|
4.11
|
16
|
18
|
16
|
12
|
53.6%
|
74.50%
|
0.269
|
0.323
|
These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. There is no way I trust either bullpen.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
White Sox
|
-57.6
|
27
|
|
89
|
25
|
|
0.307
|
24
|
|
5.3
|
27
|
Twins
|
-14.3
|
14
|
|
94
|
18
|
|
0.315
|
18
|
|
8.7
|
23
|
Neither offense is very good. The Twins are below average, but they are still better than the offensively challenged White Sox.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
White Sox
|
-20
|
26
|
Twins
|
-32.2
|
29
|
Big surprise, both of these teams have lousy defenses. The Twins look to be a little worse, but they both stink.
We'll call this game, "
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. We'll start with the bad, both of these offenses are bad. Thw White sox a little worse but both bad. Both of these defenses are bad too. Now we move on to the ugly. Look no further than these two bullpens. The Twins' pen has lost more games than it's won, and has less than a 54% save are. The White Sox pen in also under 60% saves, with 28 blown saves. Now for the godd and the bad. Jose Quintana's been very good, and Ricky Nolsasco's been very bad, and that's when this pick is coming from.
PICK - CHI WS 1s5 5 inning ML (-127)
HTN @ DET
After a rough start, Colin McHugh has been pitching some solid baseball for the Astros. He's 7-6, with 10 quality starts in his 20 outings, including 6 of his last 7. He missed the 7th by just 1 out, and didn't allow more than 3 earned runs in any of them and 2 or less in 6 of the 7.
Matt Boyd has started 8 games for the Tigers with mixed results. He's 1-2, with just 1 quality start. He also has 3 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. He's only averaging 5 innings per start, and has only pitched more than 5 innings 3 times.
McHugh has the better numbers, but it's closer than I would have expected.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
1.09
|
2.98
|
2.96
|
3.27
|
18
|
11
|
28
|
13
|
68.3%
|
77.30%
|
0.228
|
0.296
|
Tigers
|
1.36
|
4.31
|
3.82
|
4.06
|
17
|
13
|
32
|
11
|
74.4%
|
71.00%
|
0.264
|
0.316
|
The Astros have one of the best bullpens in the majors.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-3.7
|
13
|
|
100
|
12
|
|
0.322
|
10
|
|
13.6
|
12
|
Tigers
|
-2.2
|
11
|
|
102
|
10
|
|
0.326
|
8
|
|
10.6
|
17
|
These two offenses are both very good and very evenly matched.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.7
|
16
|
Tigers
|
-26.1
|
27
|
The Astros are the much better defensive team
The Astro have most of the edges here, particularly in the bullpen and starting pitching
PICK HTN 1st 5 innings (-150) and ML (-142)
COL @ NYM
Tyler Chatwood is having a good season for the Rockies. He's 9-6, with 10 quality starts in his 18 outings. However, Chatwood has been particularly superb on the road, posting a 5-0 record in 8 road starts with a 1.01 WHIP and a 1.30 ERA, as opposed to a 4-6 mark, with a 1.68 WHIP and a 5.69 ERA, at Coors.
Steven Matz has pitched fairly well for the Mets this season. He's 8-6 with 12 quality starts in his 18 outings. He missed a 13th by just a single out, and he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times. However, Matz has been somewhat streaky. After getting bombed in his first outing, he reeled off 9 consecutive starts in which he allowed 2 earned runs on less. However, since then, Matz had lost 5 straight decisions, before winning his last starts and his ERA has risen from 2.39 to 3.36 in the process. Still, he has allowed just 9 runs over his last 4 starts.
The numbers say Matz, but Chatwood is a totally different pitcher away from Coors.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.40
|
4.83
|
3.95
|
4.20
|
12
|
15
|
28
|
13
|
68.3%
|
68.60%
|
0.266
|
0.312
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.09
|
3.54
|
3.93
|
16
|
12
|
37
|
8
|
82.2%
|
79.30%
|
0.221
|
0.279
|
This is not close, the Mets have one of the best bullpens in baseball. However, the Mets have blown 2 straight saves.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-41
|
22
|
|
92
|
21
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
10.4
|
17
|
Mets
|
-23.9
|
18
|
|
96
|
14
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
9.8
|
18
|
Both offenses are very mediocre.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
22.6
|
7
|
Mets
|
5.7
|
16
|
The Rockies have the better defense.
In this game, the edges are few and mostly very small. The only big edge here is in the bullpen, where the Mets are stillt much better. The Rockies get a significant edge on defense. The offenses are mediocre and very close. The starting pitchers are both very good, as long as Chatwood isn't pitching at Coors
PICK - UNDER 8 (+100)
BALT @ TOR
Kevin Gausman is just 2-7, but he's actually pitched much better than that. He's thrown 10 quality starts in his 17 outings. He's also had 6 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, so it's not all good. Gausman has given up just 2 earned runs over the 13.2 innings in his last 2 starts, and has 13 strikeouts over that span. Gausman has had some problems on the road this season. In his 9 road starts, he's 0-6 with a 1.46 WHIP, a 4.94 ERA, but 5 quality starts in his 10 road starts. Now that's what I call bad luck. Gausman has faced TOR once this season, and allowed just 2 earned run in 6.1 innings at TOR.
Marco Estrada has basically pitched well for the Blue Jays, but has been dealing with back issues tha put him on the DL for a couple of weeks. He was solid in his first outing back from the DL, scattering 7 hits, but allowing only 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 2-1 loss to SEA. For the season, he's 5-4, with 13 quality starts in his 17 outings, including 9 of his last 10. He has allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice this season. Estrada's been somewhat better at home, posting a 2-3 record
This matchup looks pretty even, but Gausman has the better metrics
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.28
|
2.99
|
3.90
|
4.13
|
25
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.50%
|
0.235
|
0.287
|
Blue Jays
|
1.27
|
4.1
|
3.50
|
4.01
|
12
|
21
|
26
|
13
|
66.7%
|
73.80%
|
0.252
|
0.303
|
These two bullpens appear to be very evenly matched. TOR has the better metrics, but VALT appears to hold every other edge.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
24.4
|
4
|
|
104
|
6
|
|
0.332
|
4
|
|
14.4
|
10
|
Blue Jays
|
16
|
7
|
|
104
|
6
|
|
0.331
|
5
|
|
17.7
|
4
|
Again, these two offenses are both very good, and very evenly matched.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-12.9
|
24
|
Blue Jays
|
23.2
|
7
|
The Jays are the much better defensive team.
In this game I believe these 2 pitchers keep these two offenses in check
PICK - UNDER 9 (-120)
No Analysis to late too much to drink
BOS @ LAA
Porcello V Lincecum
Mismatch, was last night too, didn't work out
PICK - BOS 1st 5 (-165) and BOS ML (-163) and BOS RL +100)
ARIZ @ LAD
Godley v Maeda
PICK - LAD RL (-105)
WASH @ SF
Scherzer v Samardzija
SF not hitting and Samardzija's deteriorated, Scherzer is Scherzer
PICK - WASH 1st 5 (-166) and WASH ML (-151 and WASH RL (+110)