2016 MLB Record:
84-75 for +8.24 Units
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#2: Colorado Rockies +147
No Cespedes and no Familia (unavailable) for the Mets tonight. Addison Reed has pitched in 2 straight games so if he’s called upon, his effectiveness might not be at the optimal level. So a weakened offense and a weakened BP for the home team here. Throw in the fact that Anderso is my #15 rated pitcher with an e-ERA of 3.4 that matches deGrom’s (#12 overall in my database), and you could see that this matchup should be much closer than the odds indicate.
#3: Arizona Diamondbacks +125
Ray let me down last time, but I’m a sucker for underdog pitchers that rank in the top-10 the last 30-days or so. Davies has never seed the DBacks before so that’s part of the reason why he’s a favorite here, but to me Ray is a stronger starter and holds odds-value in this matchup.
#4: Minnesota Twins -104
Minnesota’s offense is on fire, ranking as #2 overall in the last 30-days. If you look at season-long stats, offense is pretty much the only advantage that the O’s would seem to have in this matchup. But of course if we believe that the Twins closer resemble the offense that is on display right now, versus the struggling unit early in the year, then there’s value on the home team. Besides, over the last 30-days Ubaldo’s e-ERA is 6.3, 4th worst out of 155 starters. Gibson’s e-ERA is at 3.6 over this time-span, almost 3 runs less. Yeah, this one is a fairly easy play to make.
#5: San Francisco Giants -140
Cueto at home at decent odds is hard to pass up. Roark is a good pitcher (top-30) in my database and Washington is an excellent team, but Cueto at home is almost unhittable (2.4 FIP). I like Giants’ chances.
Good Luck