For what it;s worth we stunk the joint out last night, with our worst ever day. Our posted play went a miserable 2-9.
On the plus side we've won our 1st play on WAH 1st 5 and appear to be well on the way to winning our second play on WASH ML.
WASH @ CLEV
Stephen Strasburg continues to have Cy Young type season. He's 13-1 and has tossed 13 quality starts in his 18 outings. Strasburg did have his worst outing of the season, as he pitched 6 innings in his last outing, allowing 6 runs, 7 hits and 1walk while striking out 10 Dodgers in his first loss of the season. Befoe that start, he hadn't allowed more than 4 runs in any start this season, and he'd only allowed 4, 3 times. He's also fanned 10 or more 7 times. In his 3 previous starts, Strasburg he no-hitted the Reds through 6.2 innings while walking 4 and striking out 5. He followed that up by throwing 7 innings of 2 hit, 1 run ball at the Mets will striking out 9 and walking 3. And in the 3rd, he threw 8 innings of 3 hit ball v the potent PITT offense, allowing just 1 runs and striking out 6. Strasburg also has an outstanding 148/34 K/BB in 120.2 innings.
Carlos Carrasco is having a good season for the Indians. He's 7-3, with 9 quality starts in his 14 outings, including 7 of his last 8. His streak of 5 consecutive quality starts ended 3 outings ago, but he's thrown 2 more since at the Twins (6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER), and at the Royals (6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) in his last start. He's given up more than 3 runs (4) just twice and he's allowed 2 or less in each of his last 8 outings. Since returning from the DL, Carrasco has been superb, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and striking out 555 in 57.2 innings. Carrasco has also been excellent on the road. He's compiled a 4-2 record in his 7 road starts with a 0.82 WHIP, a 1.94 ERA, with 5 quality starts.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Strasburg
|
1.00
|
2.83
|
3.06
|
3.04
|
11.04
|
2.54
|
4.35
|
0.97
|
0.199
|
0.267
|
81.10%
|
Carrasco
|
1.03
|
2.31
|
3.65
|
3.58
|
8.51
|
2.42
|
3.52
|
1.26
|
0.208
|
0.242
|
87.40%
|
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Nationals
|
1.13
|
2.98
|
3.28
|
3.67
|
13
|
15
|
25
|
9
|
73.5%
|
78.50%
|
0.221
|
0.284
|
Indians
|
1.31
|
3.65
|
3.81
|
4.04
|
14
|
16
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
74.50%
|
0.237
|
0.292
|
The Indians have a good bullpen, but the Nationals have a better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
-3.4
|
11
|
|
98
|
13
|
|
0.321
|
13
|
|
16.2
|
6
|
Indians
|
23.4
|
6
|
|
102
|
9
|
|
0.325
|
8
|
|
18.3
|
4
|
Both offenses are above average, but the Indians rank a little higher.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
40.1
|
4
|
Indians
|
27.8
|
6
|
Both of these defenses are very good and very evenly matched.
In this game, WASH has the better bullpen, while CLEV has the better offense. The defenses are pretty even. Bothe of the starting pitchers are vey good . WASh gets the edge in the starting pitcher comparison, based on the metrics, as Strasburg's are about a half a run lower.
PICK - WASH ML 1st 5 (+105) and ML (+105)
TB @ LAD
Matt Moore is having a decent season for the woeful Rays. He's 6-7, with 11 quality starts in his 20 outings, including his last 5, and 7 of his last 8. He has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 7 starts this season. Moore is drawing strong trade interest around the majors. He is a solid lefty arm that is typically coveted by contending teams down the stretch and in the postseason. Moore has really hit his stride over his last 8 starts, posting a WHIP of 1.01 and an ERA of 2.98 over that stretch. He's only produced a 4-3 record during that span, but has only received a combined 5 runs in the 3 defeats.
Brandon McCarthy has started 4 games since rejoining the Dodgers rotation. He's 2-0 with 2 quality starts. He has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a start, and has allowed 1 or less in 3 of the 4. He's allowed just 9 hits and 4 earned runs in his 22.1 innings, while striking out 26 and walking just 7
The numbers definitely favor McCarthy, but (1) Mccarthy's stats are based on just 4 starts, and (2) Moore's been pitching his bet ball of the year over his last 8 starts.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
1.40
|
4.65
|
3.91
|
4.19
|
13
|
19
|
23
|
11
|
67.6%
|
74.60%
|
0.265
|
0.308
|
Dodgers
|
1.04
|
2.98
|
3.47
|
3.94
|
19
|
15
|
29
|
15
|
63.6%
|
78.50%
|
0.194
|
0.239
|
The Dodgers have an excellent bullpen, much better than the Rays.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-18.3
|
15
|
|
96
|
14
|
|
0.311
|
20
|
|
8.4
|
22
|
Dodgers
|
-27.4
|
21
|
|
95
|
17
|
|
0.311
|
20
|
|
12.7
|
14
|
Both teams are very mediocre on offense, and very evenly matched. Tha Dodgers don't hit lefties well (rank #27) but the Rays don't hit righties much better (rank #25)
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-23.7
|
26
|
Dodgers
|
30
|
5
|
The Dodgers are a very good defensive team. The Rays are not.
The Dodgers have two obvious advantages in this game. First, they have the much better bullpen, which means if this game is close and the bullpens come into play, you have to like LA's chances. Second, they have the much better defense. As far as the starting pither matchup goes, it nowhere near as clear. McCarthy has pitched very well in his 4 starts, but it's only 4 starts, so it's a very small sample size. Meanwhile Moore is pitching very effectively right now. So with two very mediocre offenses, in a very pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, and two solid pitchers, I just don't see a lot of runs being scored here, and with the much better bullpen, I also think there's a better chance that LA wins it late than TB. Iy should also be noted that LA is very good (31-18), while TB is just 19-31 on the road.
PICK - LAD ML (-165) and UNDER 8 (-105)
CIN @ SF
Dan Straily has pitched surprisingly well for the woeful Reds. He's 5-6, with 11 quality starts in his 18 outings as a starter, including his last 4. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs just 4 times all season,
Madison Bumgarner is having another great season. He's 10-5 with 18 quality starts in his 21 outings. Bumgarner has allowed more than 3 runs (4) just twice this season, while allowing 2 or less in 16 of his starts, and 1 or less in 11 of them. He's fanned 161 and walked just 36 in 142.2 innings. Bumgarner has allowed just 18 earned runs over his past 11 starts with a 84:16 K:BB, and 6 times in that stretch, he has thrown at least 6 innings and allowed 1 one run or less.
Bumgarner has the much better numbers than Straily. His metrics are about 1.5 runs better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Reds
|
1.53
|
5.39
|
4.56
|
4.99
|
16
|
22
|
15
|
17
|
46.9%
|
71.30%
|
0.255
|
0.284
|
Giants
|
1.30
|
3.90
|
3.93
|
4.15
|
19
|
13
|
27
|
18
|
60.0%
|
72.90%
|
0.246
|
0.289
|
The Reds have the worst bullpen in baseball. Yes, even worse than the White Sox. The Giants aren't good. but they're clearly better than the Reds.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
-79.1
|
28
|
|
84
|
28
|
|
0.303
|
28
|
|
6.1
|
25
|
Giants
|
16.9
|
7
|
|
103
|
7
|
|
0.318
|
16
|
|
20.2
|
3
|
The Giants have a big edge here, as the Reds are offensively challenged.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
21.5
|
8
|
Giants
|
58.1
|
2
|
Both teams are solid defensive, but SF has the better defense.
The Giants have all the edges here. They have the better bullpen (even if by default), the better offense by a wide margin and the better defense. And when it comes to starting pitchers, Straily is having a decent season, but Bumgarner is elite and still much better. It's tough betting a RL on this SF team right now. They've been struggling of late and Straily is capable. However, even if it's close late, SF should be able to exploit the weak CIN bullpen. Also the Reds are an awful road team (15-33), while the Giants are a very good home team (30-18). So even with some reservations, I'll take a shot on Bumgarner...
PICK - SF RL (-105)
STL @ NYM
Adam Wainwright was having his worst year since his rookie season. However after a slow start, Wainwright has really turned things around. He's 9-5, with 14 quality starts in his 20 outings, including 8 in his last 9. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice in his last 12 starts, and given up just 3 earned run over his last 31 innings, covering his last 4 starts. Wainwright posted a 25.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in June, and he is sporting a 22.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate so far in July. Wainwright has not been as effective on the road, with a record of 4-3, with a 1.48 WHIP and a 6.23 ERA.
In his 8 starts this season, Logan Verrett has compiled a 1-4 record with a 1.54 WHIP and a 4.97 ERA. He does, however have 3 quality starts. Control issues have plagued Verrett in his 8 starts as well. He's issued 17 walks in those 36.2 innings as a starter. Verrett has now gotten the ball the last 3 times through the Mets' starting rotation, and he's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in two of those starts, so it's not all bad.
The numbers clearly lean in Wainwright's direction. His metrics are almost a full run better than Verrett's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
1.17
|
3.44
|
3.62
|
3.88
|
15
|
13
|
20
|
12
|
62.5%
|
74.80%
|
0.211
|
0.258
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.10
|
3.57
|
3.95
|
16
|
11
|
37
|
6
|
86.0%
|
79.50%
|
0.222
|
0.279
|
Both of these teams have excellent bullpens. Based on W-L record Save Rate, and Strand Rate, well give the Mets the edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
38.7
|
3
|
|
110
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
15.9
|
7
|
Mets
|
-19.9
|
17
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.310
|
21
|
|
9.8
|
17
|
Offensively, the Mets are mediocre, while the Cards are excellent.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-1
|
22
|
Mets
|
5
|
15
|
Neither team is good defensively, but the Mets are better.
The Cards do have two big edges in this game. First, they have the much better offense. The bullpens are both good and pretty even with a small edge to NY, the defenses are close with a small edge to NY. The other big edge the Cards have is the better starting pitcher. Verrett has shown flashes, but he hasn't been very consistent. He's a fill in started and in that role, he's been adequate. If the Mets can get 500 ball and 6 innings from him, they'll be satisfied. Wainwright, on the other hand, started out very poorly, but has gotten progressively better. He's a proven commodity, when he's healthy, and he appear to be completely healthy now. Coupled with the big offensive edge STL appears to be the right side.
PICK - STL - NL 1st 5 innings (-132) and STL ML (-125)
COL @ BALT
Jon Gray is having a solid season for COL. He's 6-4, with 12 quality starts in his 17 outings, including his last 4. He does have 5 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, but 2 of them were his first 2 starts back in April. Since then, he's been very good, posting a 1.06 WHIP, a 3.45 ERA and 12 quality starts in his 15 outings and 94 innings. He's also fanned 99 while walking 30 during that stretch. Gray now has 7 starts with at least 8 strikeouts this year, after doing that just once in 9 starts last year. Gray has been unlucky of late and should have more to show for how well he's been pitching. In his previous 3 starts, the Rockies offense pathetically scored just 4 total runs for Gray.
Dylan Bundy has started 2 games for the Orioles. In the first one, allowed 4 runs on 5 hits (including 3 home runs) and 3 walks over 3.1 innings, while striking out 4, in a 5-2 loss to the Rays. In the second one he was much better, allowing just 1 unearned run on 5 hits, while striking out 5 and not walking anyone in a 5-1 win v CLEV. Over the past 2 seasons, in 4 starts with the Orioles, Bundy has compiled a 1.56 WHIP, a 4.32 ERA, with a 4.21 SIERA and a 4.66 xFIP.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.42
|
4.92
|
3.97
|
4.21
|
12
|
15
|
27
|
13
|
67.5%
|
68.70%
|
0.269
|
0.315
|
Orioles
|
1.30
|
3.08
|
3.95
|
4.17
|
25
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.20%
|
0.239
|
0.291
|
Most of the edges in this matchup go to BALT
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-41
|
22
|
|
92
|
21
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
10.4
|
17
|
Orioles
|
26.6
|
5
|
|
105
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
4
|
|
14
|
10
|
The Orioles are the much better offensive team.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
22.6
|
7
|
Orioles
|
-16.1
|
24
|
The Rockies do have the better defense.
In this game, the Orioles have 2 edges. First, they have the much better bullpen, andsecond, the much better offense. The Rockies have the better defense. The Rockies also have the better starting pitcher. The sample size on Dylan Bundy is very small, but in Jon Gray's case, he's been superb. The Orioles are a very good home team (37-15) and I always think twice before betting against them at home, especially with that offense and bullpen. . However, his last start notwithstanding, I'm not convinced that Bundy is anything special. I expect the Rockies to get to him for at least a few runs. Meanwhile, th eOrioles haven't been hitting lately, and I don't expect that to change against Gray
PICK - COL ML 1st 5 innings (+127)