Hi Winnibet,
Thanks for the article on 1st 5 inning betting by Joe Fortenbaugh, I've been reading his NFL stuff for years. He's right, there's not much out there on the subject. I certainly plan to do more of it, when it makes sense.
Re your 3 unit plays,
TOR - looks light the right side, but ML is very expensive (-265), No way I'm laying that. Maybe the RL
Cubs - again, looks like the right side, Arrieta looks like he might have righted the ship and I still don't believe in Miguel Gonzales, but ML is still expensive (-185) Again I might look at the RL
Re your posted ARIZ play - I'm always leary of players making their first start, even highly touted ones like Shipley. H was a #1 pick in 2013 and is the Dbacks top prospect, but I'm still leary, but I sure won't be betting on Chase Anderson. ARIZ or pass for me.
On my radar: PHIL (might be a first 5 inning play there), NYM, Cubs RL and maybe TOR RL, COL and CIN (could be another 1st 5 inning play there - avoiding Red's pen)
BOL, and thanks for thinking of me, my friend