For what it's worth, and these days, that's not much, yesterday we returned to mediocrity finishing 5-6-1 in our posted plays.
Our winners were SF, BALT, HTN, TEX and COL.
Out losers were TOR/SEA UNDER, WASH who won but didn't cover the RL, BOS, who did neither (What the hell is going on with David Price?), ARIZ, NY and the UNDER in the NYM/MIA game.
On to today's card. We'll try to end this cycle of mediocrity again.
SEA @ TOR
Wade Miley is having a very mediocre season for the Mariners. He has a 6-7 record, with just 6 quality starts in his 17 outings and 9 starts in which he's allowed more than 4 earned runs. Miley doesn't strike out may batters (69 Ks in 99 IP), and he in hasn't struck out more than four batters since June 12. He doesn't miss many bats (112 H) and coupled with his 31 walks, he's allowed 143 base runner in less than 100 innings.
J.A. Happ is having a very good season for the Blue Jays. He's 12-3, with 12 quality starts in his 19 outings. He missed a 13th and 14th by just 1 out in each of his last 2 starts. Happ has cruised through his last 3 outings, scattering 16 hits with just 4 earned run in 18.1 innings. He also fanned 25 while only walking 2. Amazingly, Happ has already tied his career high for wins in a full season. Happ's ERA and WHIP are both well under his career averages of 4.06 and 1.35, respectively and he's on pace to win 20-plus games and pitch nearly 200 innings. Although those numbers might seem a little ridiculous considering his history of mediocrity, there is some cause for optimism. Over the course of his 9 year career, he's performed decisively better in the second half of seasons.
The metrics are closer, than I would like, but all the edges lean to Happ.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mariners
|
1.21
|
3.46
|
3.31
|
3.75
|
14
|
15
|
26
|
16
|
61.9%
|
80.20%
|
0.222
|
0.296
|
Blue Jays
|
1.28
|
4.01
|
3.49
|
4.01
|
11
|
21
|
24
|
13
|
64.9%
|
73.90%
|
0.252
|
0.280
|
The Jays bullpen has gotten better, but the numbers give the edge to the Mariners
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
23.5
|
6
|
|
108
|
3
|
|
0.329
|
7
|
|
12
|
13
|
Blue Jays
|
17.8
|
8
|
|
106
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
6
|
|
16.3
|
5
|
Again, these teams are very evenly matched. There's not much of an edge here either.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
-29.8
|
28
|
Blue Jays
|
15.2
|
11
|
The Jays definitely have the better defense
These two teams are both very much alive in their division races. They are very evenly matched. I give TOR the edge in starting pitching with Happ, and a large edge on defense. SEA has the edge in the bullpen and offense, but it's very slight. I expect the TOR bats to get to Miley, and I expect Happ to pitch well enough to salvage this final game in this series.
PICK - TOR ML -170
NYM @ MIA
Steven Matz has pitched fairly well for the Mets this season. He's 7-6 with 11 quality starts in his 17 outings. He missed a 12th by just a single out, and he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times. However, Matz has been somewhat streaky. After getting bombed in his first outing, he reeled off 9 consecutive starts in which he allowed 2 earned runs on less. However, since then, Matz has now lost 5 straight decisions, and his ERA has risen from 2.39 to 3.56 in the process. Still, he has allowed just 9 runs over his last 3 starts.
Jose Urena had worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Marlins before making his first start in his last outing at PHIL. He allowed just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 5.2 innings, just missing a quality start. On the season, he's still allowed more hits (30) than innings pitched (26), and walked another 11.
Granted, we have a very small sample size on Urena, but Matz's numbers are very good.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.13
|
3.55
|
3.97
|
16
|
11
|
35
|
6
|
85.4%
|
79.60%
|
0.221
|
0.278
|
Marlins
|
1.26
|
3.54
|
3.78
|
4.15
|
20
|
16
|
37
|
16
|
69.8%
|
77.00%
|
0.223
|
0.281
|
The Marlin have a very average bullpen, nut the Mets have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-19.9
|
17
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.310
|
21
|
|
9.8
|
17
|
Marlins
|
-17.2
|
16
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.318
|
17
|
|
14.4
|
8
|
These offenses are both ranked in the middle of the pack. The edge is very slight but goes to MIA.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
5
|
15
|
Marlins
|
41.4
|
3
|
The Mets are mediocre on defense, while the Marlins are very good.
In this game, the Mets have 1 big edge, a much better bullpen and 1 small edge, the better starting pitcher. Matz hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier in the season, but he's still been solid. I don't really know what to expect out of Urena. His last outing was a very good one, but his history looks pretty mediocre. The Marlins may be a little better offensively, but Ill take my chances with the known quanity, better IMO starting pitcher, and the clearly better bullpen.
PICK - NYM ML (-125)
CLEV @ BALT
Corey Kluber is having a solid, but somewhat inconsistent season for the Indians. He's 9-8 with 12 quality starts in his 19 outings, with 130 strikeouts and only 30 walks in 129 innings. However, Kluber also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 5 in which it was 5 or more. Unfortunately there's no way to predict when Kluber's going to toss a klunker, it just happens every once in a while. For example, in his last 10 outings, Kluber has 7 quality starts in which he allowed 28 hits and 6 earned runs in 54.1 innings. However, in the other 3, he allowed 23 hits and 16 earned runs in 15.1 innings. His last klunker was 3 starts ago. Go figure. There's no home/away pattern here either, Kluber's thrown 3 clunkers at home and 3 on the road.
Vance Worley lasted just 4.1 innings in his last start against the Yankees, tossing 88 pitches, and surrendering 3 runs on 3e hits and 4 walks while taking the loss. In his 3 starts, he allowed 14 hits, 4 HRs, and 10 earned runs in 15 innings, with 14 strikeout and 7 walks.
Again, we have a small small size for Worley, but Kluber's numbers are all very good.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
1.31
|
3.72
|
3.81
|
4.06
|
13
|
15
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
74.20%
|
0.235
|
0.291
|
Orioles
|
1.31
|
3.11
|
4.00
|
4.22
|
23
|
8
|
35
|
11
|
76.1%
|
79.40%
|
0.238
|
0.289
|
These two bullpens are very evenly matched. BALT has more edges, but CLE has the better metrics.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
27.7
|
4
|
|
103
|
9
|
|
0.327
|
8
|
|
18.3
|
4
|
Orioles
|
26.8
|
5
|
|
105
|
6
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
13.5
|
10
|
Again, these offenses are very evenly matched
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
27.1
|
6
|
Orioles
|
-15.7
|
24
|
CLEV has the much better defense.
In this game, the bullpens are very close, the offenses are very close and CLEV does have the better defense. This game come down to the two starting pitchers. Kluber is clear;y the better starting pitcher, but there's always the possibility of a "Kluber Klunker". They don't happen often, but when they do, Kluber gets hit. As for Worley, he's not very good. He never has been, and IMO he never will be. I'm betting Kluber doesn't throw a clunker. If he does, this bet icould be a loser, but with Worley on the mound I expect CLEV to score runs as wel, abd stay in this game even if Kluber is offl.
PICK - CLEV ML (-133)
DET @ CHI WS
Anibal Sanchez has really struggled for the Tigers this season. He's 5-11, with just 2 quality start in his 15 outings as a starter. He's also allowed at least 4 earned runs in 9 of his starts. Sanchez has pitched so poorly that he was pulled from the starting rotation at the end of May. However, with Jordan Zimmerman landing on the disabled list due to a neck strain, Sanchez entered the rotation once again, but the struggles just keep on coming. Since returning to the rotation, he's 0-3, and has allowed 20 hits and 15 earned runs in his 14.1 innings. During that stretch his WHIP is 1.95 and his ERA i2 9.42. There is some reason for hope, as Sanchez turned in 6 quality innings, but still took the loss in his last start against the Twins. He allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while setting a season high with 10 strikeouts.
Jose Quintana should be suing the White Sox offense for non support. He's only 8-8 with 13 quality starts in his 19 outings. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs in Quintana's 8 losses. Quintana has only allowed more than 3 runs just 5 times this season. On the minus side, he has allowed 10 HRs in his past 7 starts. On the plus side, he has also struck out 45 batters in 51.2 innings in that span. His current 8.2 K/9 is the highest of his career.
All the numbers point to Quintana.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Tigers
|
1.37
|
4.46
|
3.82
|
4.05
|
14
|
11
|
28
|
10
|
73.7%
|
70.60%
|
0.268
|
0.320
|
White Sox
|
1.44
|
3.56
|
4.11
|
4.26
|
12
|
12
|
27
|
15
|
64.3%
|
75.10%
|
0.249
|
0.313
|
The Tigers don't have a good pen, but the White Sox bullpen really sucks.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
-8.5
|
12
|
|
100
|
11
|
|
0.325
|
9
|
|
9
|
21
|
White Sox
|
-50.4
|
25
|
|
89
|
24
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
5.3
|
26
|
This is a mismatch. The Tigers have the much better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
-26.6
|
27
|
White Sox
|
-19.1
|
25
|
Both defenses are extremely weak. There no edge her
The White Sox have the much better starting pitcher with Jose Quintana. However, the Tigers have the much better offense and, by default, the better bullpen. Both defenses are poor. Since I hate the White Sox bullpen, I'll completely remove them from the equation, and trust Quintana to hold the Tigers at bay for 5 innings.
PICK - CHI WS 1st 5 Innings (-155)
TB @ OAK
Heralded rookie Blake Snell has started 7 games for the Rays. He's compiled a 2-4 record, with 3 quality starts, including his last 2 outings. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his 7 starts and 2 or less in 5 of them. His most recent start, at Coors, was a dominating 6 inning 1 hit shutout with 9 strikeout and 3 walks.
Jesse Hahn was demoted to triple AAA in June by the A's. Before his demotion, Hahn had been knocked around for 25 runs on 46 hits in 7 starts (34.2 innings) for the OAK so far this season. He had a 2-4 record, with 3 quality starts.
The numbers pretty much all lean in Snell's direction.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
1.39
|
4.62
|
3.88
|
4.16
|
13
|
16
|
23
|
10
|
69.7%
|
74.20%
|
0.265
|
0.309
|
Athletics
|
1.29
|
4.17
|
3.75
|
4.11
|
16
|
13
|
27
|
11
|
71.1%
|
71.90%
|
0.248
|
0.297
|
These two bullpens are close, but to the extent there are edges, they belong to OAK.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-9.5
|
13
|
|
98
|
12
|
|
0.314
|
18
|
|
8.8
|
22
|
Athletics
|
-53.2
|
26
|
|
89
|
24
|
|
0.303
|
26
|
|
2.2
|
28
|
The Rays appear to have the better offense, but OAK hits lefties a lot better (rank #7) than TB hits righties (rank#26), That makes this a much closer matchup, that it originally appeared.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-24.4
|
26
|
Athletics
|
-46
|
30
|
Both teams have weak defenses, but OAK's in the weaker of the two.
The biggest difference between these two teams is the starting pitchers. OAK gets an edge but a small one in the bullpen. TB gets an offensive edge but a small one, and both teams are weak defensively. Snell has pitched very well in 5 of his 7 starts, and has tremendous talent and upside. Hahn, in spite of his 3 quality starts was demoted for pitching poorly. Hahn is perfectly capable of having a good outing, but just not consistently. I'll take my chances on the kid with the talent and the big upside.
PICK - TB ML (-126)