3-4 yesterday but feel like it could've been much worse. That was one of those days your just thankful to pick up a couple winners to prevent a big loss and move on. Still have a solid week going. Let's start the weekend off right today. I know there's a lot of people that check the posts daily and I thank you! So today, having some extra time, I decided to put some short write ups with the plays. I'll post as they are added. Wanted to get the early game up first. Have a great weekend! BOL today guys!! $$$
Indians/Jays over 8.5 (-120) Loss
First of all its Canada Day and I expect there to be a lot of energy in the Rogers Center. No doubt hitters can feed off energy in the ballpark. Now to the numbers, Tomlin is 9-1 for the Tribe but in some ways he's a bit lucky to have that number. The fact is they score a ton of runs when he pitches. They've scored at least 5 runs in 11 of his 14 starts. Ideally the tribe get to 5 or 6 here which looks possible off of Stroman who has an ERA north of 5 and a WHIP of 1.42. That tells me Cleveland will have chances with guys on base and as hot as they are right now I see them cashing in. Now Tomlin is not a guy that's gonna over power a lineup. I know Toronto is cold of late but I think this kind of matchup is one they can potentially break out a little in. Tomlin has an ERA north of 3 so it's not like he will complete dominate a lineup. That's not the type of pitcher he is. Also Martin and Tulo are back in the lineup for the Jays. I think both pitchers give up some in this afternoon affair and the total goes over the 8.5.
Rangers -106
First of all, we get one of the best teams in baseball against one of the worst at a very reasonable price here. That's something I'm gonna try to take advantage of and play every time. The Rangers are coming off a couple of really tough losses in NY. A 6 run 9th cost them Wednesday and a walk off passed ball cost them yesterday. Now there's some who think that could linger but I don't think it does with the tough minded Bannister at the helm. I think a matchup with the Twins is a great spot to put to rest those tough losses and move on. The numbers look pretty good too. Let's start with Martin Perez. He has put together a nice run winning his last 6 decisions and has limited opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 9 of his last 12 starts. He is coming off a nice outing against the Red Sox in which he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. The Twins send Ervin Santana to the bump with his 2-7 record, over 4 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Santana has not been good at home this year at all. He is 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA and the Twins are 1-7 in his last 8 home starts. Perez hasnt been as good on the road as at home but Santana makes up for that by being bad at home. So basically we get the better pitcher and lineup at a very reasonable price. I'll take the Rangers every time in this matchup.
Rockies/Dodgers over 7.5 (-115)
Tonight we get the best offense in the NL (Rockies) vs a team with a newly acquired starter who is filling in for Kershaw, and doesn't have good numbers against them. That's the first sign that this may be an over game. Let's look at the numbers. Bud Norris goes for the Dodgers tonight. Norris record is not good this year but he actually hasnt been that bad. He's pitched for Atlanta and that makes the record look bad. He actually has decent numbers. Now he doesn't against the Rockies. He has posted an ERA of over 6 in 30.1 innings in his career against the Rockies. And this years Rockies team leads the NL and is second is the majors scorin 5.36 runs per game. And they are hitting .276. That seems like a recipe for runs against a pitcher who has struggle against them historically. The Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa and his 6.47 ERA and 1.66 WHIP to the bump. He has been slightly better of late but has struggled on the road with an ERA over 10 and historically against the Dodgers with a 5.22 ERA. The dodgers offense isn't spectacular but they do average over 4 runs a game. Combine that with a pitcher has struggles on the road and against them and I expect the Dodgers to score here. All of that plus the fact the wind is blowing out tells me this one goes over the total set at 7.5. I can see double digit runs here.
Added Plays
Royals -120
Tigers -101