Clearly the most watched game will be the Mets/Dodgers as Urias makes his ML debut. Also, clearly all the money is on Los Doyas - but that's not money I can follow. The kid is most likely on a pitch count, which would worry be seeing as the Dodgers pen isn't all that. However, the Mets DO struggle against LHP. However again - it cannot be that hard to take DeGrom (and a decent Mets bullpen) at home at the ridiculous number that is out there now.
There's clearly some love for the Braves - but not mine. I know their record and I'd love to think that after the Fish played yesterday they get tired - but the Braves are simply pitiful against lefties so I'd have to take Miami.
I know the Reds are getting some attention, likely because once again, the Brewers are near the bottom of the barrel in every offensive category against LHP. However, the Reds pen is horrid and Lamb is not a GOOD LHP. I seriously wanted Cincinnati until I looked at Lamb in more detail.
I don't know that I can take Matt Cain in Colorado, even though it's a first-game back for Colorado after playing yesterday. The Rockies have been playing reasonably well, and Pence is upgraded to probable while Belt is still questionable. Chatwood CAN keep the ball down, so as of now I'd have to fade Matt Cain, grudgingly.
If Arizona gets much cheaper I'll take the plunge. PERHAPS the RL - San Diego, although they also had a day off and clearly AZ did not - is right there with the Brewers and Braves in terms of sucking against LHP. Ray isn't THAT good, but Friedrich is lucky to even have a big league team to call home.
I don't want anything to do with the Red Sox game. They seem to think Joe Kelly might have figured things out and they may well be right - but I can't put my money on one game, although it truly would be Boston or nothing the way Toronto has been playing - but they're due. Boston a better pen, so I lean under there a bit, too.
I'd have to think the Orioles stay in a slump, and they played yesterday. Although I don't have a ton of respect for Bauer, he's better than Wright and Cleveland at home at -120 or whatever is the play, or pass.
I cannot take Archer. I tried not long ago, assuming he'd right his ship - and was hammered. Tanaka (right now) is a better pitcher and the Yankees have a better bullpen, although it WAS used a bit (the good arms) yesterday. That is almost a coin flip to me - there's some telltale line moves that might suggest the Rays - so we'll see. I won't flip - unless something really looks different in a few hours than it does now.
I am starting to trust Duffy, although he's been on a tight pitch count since coming out of the pen. Then again, they Royals DO have a bullpen - it's the middle relief I might be concerned about. Gonzalez just hasn't been good enough, nor have Chicago on the road, to get my money. Gotta lean Royals here, as funny as that one looks.
I'd like to think Fiers regresses and I'd like to think Shoemaker gets hit here, but he's one that has owned me for two years, and at home (he IS a flyball pitcher) he stands a better chance of doing well. However, it seems as if perhaps the Astros hit a bit of a stride yesterday, so as I take a deep breath - I lean to the road team with the better bullpen.
I don't want much to do with the Tigers game. Detroit has not been very good from a W/L perspective against LHP, but Manaea can get hammered, as can Fulmer. I suppose the total is still only 8 because of the venue (it's perhaps the biggest park in the bigs, and certainly has the most foul territory) - but neither starter is likely going 7+ innings and both pens are suspect at best. If Reddick were in I could consider the A's - but think perhaps the over, at some point, is a winner.
Surprisingly (to me) the Twins (some of them) have hit Felix Hernandez better than I expected. Then again, Seattle is one of the BEST teams against LHP - which makes it tough to fade them - but laying -240 or whatever isn't happening, and with a low total the RL might not be as attractive as I'd like it to be. We'll see what happens.
I did do this, FWIW, at 4.5:1
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[905] LOS +1½-230
( J URIAS -L / J DEGROM -R )
[914] ARI -170
( ACTION )
[925] DET -150
( ACTION )
[928] SEA -220
( ACTION )