Todays early games are not easy to call at least for myself. This Miami @ Rays game really should be a complete pass,but the gambler side of myself is nagging from within nearly making it impossible for myself to at least not make 1 call on the game. All 3 games in this series so far have been close in all aspects. 1 run games, both close on the hit margin and even errors. All 3 games have produced about half the total runs scored from the 6th on and today seems so far to myself to fit that bill. Neither Smyly nor Jose have faced each other and both have limited games vs opposing teams. Smyly last Sept @ home in a similar played out game as the 3 this year, 6-4 Tampa W and a 9-10 hit advantage for Tampa with 4 of the 10 runs scored coming beyond the 6th. He also had a relief appearance against Miami for 1 inning while with Boston. I think it was 2012 or 13, I just looked it up today while going through his game log. Jose has to starts both in Tampa and both losses both while opposing Odorizzi. He got smashed early in 2013 against a different Tampa line up, 3.1 innings 5 h, 7 r, 4 er, 1 HR 87 pitches, he did have 6k's though. That was a 6-10 loss. Then 10/1/15 , 6 inn 11H, 2 r, 2 er 9k's 1 HR. 1-4 loss. I'm going with the over 3.5 runs 1st 5 innings as I see Tampa being up 3-1 after 5, my guess it will be due to a 2-3 run HR. Also taking Tampas team runs over 3 for the game.
Tampa team runs over 3 -125
1st 5 innings over 3.5 +105