For what it's worth, yesterday was exceedingly busy and we had to condense our posted play analysis. If we get really pressed for time, we may do the same today. Fortunately it was a profitable day. Coming off a 4-3 day on Friday, we finished 8-3-1.
Our losers were: the CARDS ML - the CARDS were never in it, Ross pitched well, Garcia did not; CHI WS/BALT UNDER - flew over, not even close; And PITT/CIN OVER - again not even close PITT only scored 5 on Simon expected much more.
On the plus side: NATS/CARDS stayed UNDER - barely, METS jumped on SF early and hung on cashing the ML, RAYS won a close one - game went back and forth, another stellar outing from Bret Cecil in Jays pen (0 IP, 3 H. 1 R LOSS); WHITE SOX won a wild one that could have gone either way; PHILS blow early 3-1 lead but win late 4.3 - Break up The Phillies!; Porcello & Red Sox shut out Yanks in blowout at Fenway; and finally MIA jumped all over Brew Crew and held on for 7-5 W. We also got a push with the CLEV/PHIL - UNDER
Weekends are tough, I'm usually pressed for time, so as I make a pick, I will post it, and I may conse my analysis again. It worked yesterday. Here's the first one.
TOR @ TB
Marcus Stroman has been able to give the Jays good length in his5 starts this year. He has a strong WHIP (1.03), but a high ERA (4.37). His advanced metrics (4.05 SIERA and 4.07 xFIP) are lower than his ERA but still over 4.00. His strikeouts (13.6%, 4.89/9) have also been way down so far.
Jake Odorizzi has been up and down this season with 3 good starts and 2 mediocre ones. His WHIP's a high 1.34, but his ERA is a decent 3.58. His advanced metrics (3.77 SIERA and 3.97 xFIP) are a little higher than his ERA, but a little better than Stroman's. He's also got a better K rate (20.7%, 7.81/9). However, after fanning 10 against the Blue Jays in his first start, Odorizzi now has only 14 strikeouts combined in his last four starts. On the plus side, he's not walking many batters at all.
If I was making a pick based only on these two start pitchers, this game would be a pass for me. But...
Now we get the bullpens. The Rays definitely have the better pen - better save % 71% v 58%, better strand rate 83% v 75% and better WHIP & ERA, Metrics may lean slightly to TOR, but even there, the difference is very slight. The TOR pen (and specifically, my favorite whipping boy, Brett Cecil) lost last night's game. This was just the latest in a long list of Blue Jay bullpen miscues. The TOR bullpen sucks. If this game is close late, the TOR pen will probably find a way to blow it.
The Blue Jays do have the better offense. They're nowhere nears a good as they looked last year, but they're still in the middle of the pack, while the Rays are a bottom tier offense. Good Pitching usually shuts down good hitting, so while both starters are good For me, the bullpens are the deciding factor, and Im getting +$.
PICK: TB - ML (+110) and UNDER 7.5
CHI WS @ BALT
Chris Sale is an elite pitcher. He's started 5 games and they've all be quality starts. In his last 3 (24 innings) he's given up 1 earned run, 8 hits, 18 Ks, 2 walks and 1 solo HR. His WHIP is 0.68, his ERA is 1.66. His metrics are a little higher (SIERA - 3.31. xFIP - 3.46). Simply superb.
Ubaldo Jimenez has also pitched well this season. His WHIP is high (1.57) and his ERA (3.91) is a little high as well. His advanced metrics 3.67 SIEREA and 3.30 xFIP) tell me that he's pitched a lot better than his ERA and WHIP would indicate, but he still puts too many men on bases - 25 hits and 11 walks (10.9%, 4.3/9) in 23 innings. Sooner or later, that's gonna catch up to him.
The two bullpens look pretty even, but the White Sox have a much better save % (82% v 56%) and better metrics as well.
The O's do have more firepower. They're a top 10 offense while the White Sox are below average.
I've been riding Chris Sale all season, and will continue to do so. I know that at some point I'll lose a bet, but I'll cash a hell of a lot more than I lose, and at a very reasonable price for Sale...
PICK - CHI WS - ML (-124)
DET @ MINN
It's been a terrible start to the season for Mike Pelfrey. He's sitting with a 1.92 WHIP and a 4.64 ERA. His advanced metrics are even worse (5.89 SIERA and 5.48 xFIP), andhe has just nine strikeouts. It's true that Pelfrey has gotten little run support from his teammates, but he sure hasn't helped himself with 12 walks and 29 hits allowed in 21.1 innings.
Ricky Nolasco has pitched very well so far. He gone at least 7 inning in 3 of his 4 starts ( 6 in the 4th) with an outstanding WHIP (0.90) and ERA (3.25). His advanced metrics (3.23 SIERA and 3.37 x FIP) give further credence to his outstanding WHIP and ERA.
The Tigers do have the better bullpen and the better offense, making this pick somewhat risky. However, Mike Pelfrey sucks. I've been fading him all year and it's paid off. As with Chris sale, I know he'll beat beat me somewhere down the road, but fading him will make me a lot more than it will cost me.
PICK - MINN ML (-139)
ATL @ CHI Cubs
It's still mighty expensive to bet on the Cubs ML. The ML was as high as -400 on the Cubs with Arrieta on Thursday, and yesterday with Lester, it was -300? Today, with Lackey on the hill, the Cubs are still -205! Frankly, I just won't play a ML at those prices. It's crazy. Losing just one game at those price can really hurt your wallet. My problem is that I just don't like betting run lines either. As I've said many time, I don't like betting into situations where my goal and the team's aren't the same. The Cubs don't care if they win by 1 or 10. Just win period. Parlays? I don't like them either, even two teamers. My experience hasn't been positive. On Thursday, we took a chance with Arrieta and bet the RL and cashed easily. On Friday we bet the RL again with Lester (a very good pitcher, but not as good as Arrieta). It wasn't easy but we ultimately cashed again. Do we go to the well one more time? Even the very best teams will lose at least a third of their games, and even the worst will win 1.3 of theirs. The Cubs may well be the best team in baseball and the Braves may well be the worst. Part of me says than alone makes a RL bet on the Cubs in this game a good one. The other part of me says that by about 4:30, I'm going to feel like Hans Solo - "Chewie, I've got a bad feeling about this".
When we compare bullpens, the Cubs are clearly better. Most notably an 80% save rate v a 44.5% rate of PHIL. Their WHIP is much lower (1.02 v 1.51), their ERA is a run and a half lower and their advance metrics are all at least 1 run lower. Finally, their BAA and BABIP are both about 70 points lower.
The offensive difference between these teams is even more massive. The Cubs are in the top 10 in BA. OBP and SLG. The Braves are bottom 10 in OBP and bottom 5 in the other two. The Braves as a team have hit 5 HRs this entire season. For the Cubs, Rizzo has 8 by himself, and Bryant has 4. The Cubs average almost 3 runs per game more than the Braves.
Yes Julio Teheran could pitch a great game (he's done it before) and slow down the Cubs potent O and the. I suppose that it's also possible that the Braves could score enough runs to keeps it close, not likely, but possible. But, I'm not betting on it. In fact, I am betting against it. I am betting that the Cubs roll again.
PICK -CHI CUBS RL (100)
CLEV @ PHIL
Danny Salazare and Vincent Velasquez are both having very good years They both have excellent ERAs and WHIP but their advanced metrics tells a totally different story. Velasquez's (2.54 SIERA and 2.73 xFIP) is much better than Salazar's (4.03 SIERA and 4.16 xFIP).
The tow bullpens are very close. the Tribe has better WHIP but PHILs better metrics.
Offense is the Tribes only edge. CLEV is in the middle of the pack and PHIL is bottom tier.
The Phils are on a roll - Break up the Phillies
I'm betting that good PHIL pitching will shut down a mediocre CLEV offense & I don't expect weak PHILto score a lot either. IMO wrong team favored. I riding the PHILS one more time.
PICK - PHIL ML (+115) and UNDER 7
LA Angels @ TEX
This one seems to easy, so I;ll probably get burned.
We have two outstanding pitchers in Garrett Richards and Cole Hamels. Both have good WHIP 1.24 and 1.27. Both have ERAs well under 3. The advanced metrics are very close , similar K rates and BB rates. No edge found.
Bullpens are also very close
TEX has the better O - Slightly above average, while the Angels are bottom tier.
Total seem very high 8.5
Probably a trap, but if so I'm walking right into it
PICK - LAA/TEX UNDER 8.5
HTN @ OAK
Doug Fister's career as a Houston Astro started out very poorly. He got shelled in his first 2 starts (10.2 innings, 14 hits and 9 earned runs. He's be's been better in his last 2 starts (two 6 inning stints with a total of 9 hits and 5 earned runs). His WHIP's high (1.50) and his ERA (5.56) is as well, His advanced metrics are equally bad (5.10 SIERA and (5.64 SIERA). Fister's biggest problem is that he just doesn't miss many bats.
I'm not a Rich Hill fan. I still think he's overrated. He's 36 and he still walks too many batter (11.2%, 4.37/9) However, he's started 5 games and 3 of them have been quality starts, including his last 2. His WHIP is a solid 1.27 and his ERA is a splendid 2.42. His advance metrics are equally impressive (2.59 SIERA and 2.65 xFIP). His strikeout rate is also very impressive (33.6%, 12.8/9). Hill has recorded 10 strikeouts twice in his last four starts and has 18 total strikeouts in his last two.
Both bullpens are good but the As have a little better Save % (90% v 80%), a slightly better Strand rate (75% v 72.5%), a better WHIP (1.04 v 1.33), a better ERA (2.65 v 4.94) a 3o pt lower BAA and BABIP.
Houston's only real edge in this game is a better offense. The BA differential is very small but HTN has a better OBP (#14 v #29) and SLG (#10 v #24). HTN also scores about 1/2 a run per game more.
As I usually do, I'm betting on the better pitching.
PICK - OAK ML (-150)
NYY @ BOS
Nathan Eovaldi's season to date has been a mixed bag. His 1st 2 starts were pretty much disasterous. In his first start, the Astros got to him for 5 earned run on 6 hits with 2 dingers in the 5 innings that he worked. Eovaldi followed that up with a slightly better outing @ TOR, going 6.2 innings and giving up 7 hits and 2 earned runs with 2 more dingers. That's a really bad start, 13 hits and 9 earned runs with 4 HRs in 11.2 innings. However, in his next outing, Eovaldi scattered 8 hits over 6 innings, but only allowed 3 earned run v OAK. In his last start @ TEX, he completely shut down the Rangers for 7 innings, allowing just 2 hits and no runs. Eovaldi was finally able to keep the ball in the yard after allowing four home runs in his first two starts. The rest of Eovaldi's game has been just fine -- a 1.14 WHIP, an 11.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and a 43.1 percent ground ball rate. His ERA is on the high side at 4.38, but his advanced metrics (2.87 SIERA and 2.95 xFIP) are much lower. This usually means the he's pitching a lot better than his ERA would indicate. It should be noted that Eovaldi has underperformed his advanced metrics for most of his career.
David Price is also off to a roller coaster start thus season. He's started 5 games. In his 1st, 3rd and 5th starts, went 6, 7 and 8 innings, allowing 2 run in each, on 11 total hits with 4 walks and 33 strikeouts. However, in starts #2 and #4, Price was shelled to the tune of 13 hits, and 13 earned runs in 8.2 innings with 4 walks and 13 strikeouts. His WHIP at 1.28 is a little high and his ERA is a whopping (very unPricelike) 5.76. However, his advanced metrics (2.32 SIERA and 2.36 xFIP) say that he's pitched a whole lot better than his ERA would suggest and tose numbers are much closer to what we've come to expect from Price throughout his career.
The Yankees do have the better bullpen but the BOS pen is also very good, just not quite as good.
The Yankee offense is really struggling. They rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in most categories. the BOS offense, on the other hand, is loaded and really clicking right now. They easily rank in the top 10 in most offensive categories, and in several categories top 5.
I have two starting pitchers with lousy ERAs, but very good advance ERA metrics. one, Eovaldi, has a history of underperforming his metrics throughout his career. The other has been an elite pitcher throughout his career and his metrics say he still is. Both teams have good bullpens. One team is usually an offensive powerhouse and really clicking right now. The other is offensively challenged and really struggling right now.
PICK - BOS ML (-157) and sprinkle on RL (+130)