2016 MLB Record:
21-19 for +1.76 Units
***************
#1: Detroit Tigers +106
Michael Fullmer is making his MLB debut and I’m going to back him in this one. The guy had a 2.6 FIP in the minors last year, and a 29% K-rate in his 15 minor league innings this season. Against a weak Minnesota lineup he should have success. The key to this play for me is the current form of Tigers’ offense. Two games ago they’ve moved JD Martinez into the 2nd spot in the lineup, and since then have plated 9 and 7 runs respectively. Hughes is a mediocre pitcher who will rarely issue a ‘walk’ but will also leave plenty of pitches in the zone. Tigers have had a lot of success off him last year (10 runs in 13 innings of work) and I expect good results for them tonight.
#2: Colorado Rockies +130
Both Chatwood and Ray rely on their sliders for success. The difference tonight is that Arizona ranks dead-last offensively against the pitch, while the Rockies are 2nd in the league. In addition, Chatwood’s 3.8 SIERA is much lower than Ray’s 4.5 mark, indicating to me that regression is on the way for the latter. Rockies rank top-10 offensively against lefties and I like their chances of getting it done at these odds.
#3: San Diego Padres +165
Not sure what Alex Wood has done so far to justify these odds today: 12% K-rate / 11% BB-rate / 5.0 xFIP / 4.9 SIERA / 6.0 ERA. As bad as San Diego ranks overall offensively, they’re actually 6th against left-handers. Oh, and Vargas is a young pitcher whom the Dodgers have never faced before. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but has very good control, and has kept the ball in the park in the minors. The odds here don’t justify it and there’s a lot of value on the visitors.
Good Luck