For what it's worth, yesterday was a very good day. We finished 6-1. Chris Sale dominated the Jays, as we expected, and the Toronto bullpen continues to suck big time (last night 3 IP, 7 hits 4 earned runs and 1 HR). Rich Hill pitched very well and Mike Pelfrey, not so much. Cody Anderson was god awful and Ricky Nolasco good enough to eke out a W. Gerrit Cole was solid at Coors and Jorge De La Rosa wasn't. Carlos Martinez was excellent and Shelby Miller continued to be whole lot worse than he looked last year. The only thing that spoiled our night was a miserable outing by Edinson Volquez that made Jered Weaver's mediocre outing look good by comparison. The Royals don't look right to me. Maybe it's a hangover from last year but they just don't look sharp. On to today. Sorry, I'm posting late - too much to do & too little time.
My First three picks will have detailed write ups. The next two won't. That because they're going to be run line picks. It will be abundantly clear who should win. The oly question I'll have is can they win big. That' doesn't mean that they will definitely win. Hell, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers -300+ favs not only didn't cover the RL, they outright lost. I don't like betting RLs. I don't like betting into situations where my goal and the team's is not in complete agreement. But, I take my chances and hope for more Ws than Ls. I doubt we'll do as well as yesterday, but we'll give it a shot.
CHI WS @ TOR: Jose Quintana is off to a great start this season. In his last start, he pitched seven shutout innings while allowing four hits and two walks while striking out four to earn the win against the Rangers. He has not given up more than two earned runs in any of his four starts this season. And, for the third time in four starts, the White Sox provided Quintana with at least four runs, which is something that didn't happen very often last year. Quintana's carrying a 1.09 WHIP with a miniscule 1.82 ERA. His advance ERA metrics are rock solid (3.49 SIERA, 3.29 xFIP and 1.92 FIP, and over the past year, Quintana's numbers are pretty similar, so this is nothing new for him. He just goes out there every 5th day, throws a lot of quality starts, and keeps his team in games. Marco Estrada has also pitched good ball so far this season. Two of his first three starts were solid. In the first one he threw 7 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits with 8 Ks and 2 BBs. In his next start @ BOS he pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs on 8 hits with 3 Ks and 1 BB. In his last start, Estrada worked around 10 baserunners -- six hits and four walks -- thanks to nine strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision against Baltimore. He left with the lead, but the bullpen blew it (what a shocker!). His WHIP(1.44) is a little high because of all the men he put on base (19 hits and 7 walks in 18 innings), but his ERA is solid (2.50) and his advanced metrics, while definitely a little higher than Quintana's and still good. As with Quintana, his number are consistent with how he performed last year but, based on last year we would expect his metrics to be over 4.00 rather than their current mid 3s. His only real problem is that he puts too many runners on base and sooner or later that will catch up with him. The White Sox have the much better bullpen (3-0, 20 holds, 9 saves, 2 blown saves and an 86% strand rate)). By contrast, the Jays pen continues to be a disaster (0-7, 15 holds, 7 saves and 5 blown saves). They also have the better ERA and an 11% higher strand rate, but WHIPs, advanced ERA metrics, BAA and BABIP are all close. Offensively, the Jays score about a run more per game than the White Sox and while their BA, OBP and SLG are all in the middle of the pack, the White Sox are nearer to the bottom. Yes I know, it's hard to sweep a team on the road. The Jays pen handed the Sox the first game and Chris Sale handed them their heads in the second one. Still, I get the starter that I think is a little better, with a much better bullpen. I also get the team tha'ts playing better baseball, all at an underdog price. PICK - CHI WS ML (+131)
BALT @ TB: Matt Moore's off to a pretty solid start for the Rays this season. He's started four games and pitched into the 6th in his last three. He's got two quality starts and just missed a third allowing 4 earned runs in 6,2 innings at the Yankees. In that start, Moore battled, but the Yankees kept chipping away and finally hung a loss on him. Moore continued to show good control throwing 71 of 110 pitches for strikes, and maintaining his very solid 26:5 K:BB ratio. He currently sports a solid 1.12 WHIP and a 3.60 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics (3.22 SIERA, 3.39 xFIP) are even better. In April 2014, Moore tore a ligament in his left elbow, which required Tommy John surgery and forced him to miss the entire 2014 season. He began the 2015 season on the 60-day disabled list to continue recovery from Tommy John surgery. He made his first start in over 450 days on July 2nd and fell into a losing streak before being sent to Triple A in early August. Since his return to the team later that month, Moore's been consistently putting up these kinds of numbers and since command has always been his nemesis, if he continues to hit his spots, he could have a big year. Excluding a rain shortened 2 inning outing to start the season, Chris Tillman has made 3 starts with mixed results. He three 5 solid innings v these Rays in the first, allowing 5 hits and 1 earned run with 5 Ks. He followed that up by getting bomber @ TEX to the tune of 9 hits and 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings. In his most recent start, Tillman allowed just two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings against the Blue Jays. He also struck out four. He's carrying a 1.25 WHIP and a 4.42 ERA, and his advanced metrics (4.19 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP) suggest Tillman may be in for another tough year. Both teams have good bullpens and I don't see an edge fore either one here. Offensively, the Os are much better (top 5 in BA, OBP and SLG) than the offensively challenged Rays and they average a little over 1 run per game. As I sai before, I believe good pitching will shut down good hitting more often than the opposite and TB has has better pitcher. PICK TB ML (-115)
OAK @ DET: Sonny Gray's been superlative this season. He's started 4 games, he got 4 quality starts. He's pitched 26.1 innings, allowed 22 hits and only 8 earned runs. He's fanned 24 and walked 11. His WHIP's 1.25 (a little high) and his ERA's 2.73 (a little low) His advanced ERA metrics are all in the mid 3s. Looks a lot like the sonny Gray we saw last year. In three of his four starts, Justin Verlander has looked a lot like Sonny Gray (at least 6 innings with 3 or fewer earned runs). In the other, he was bombed at home by PITT to the tune of 10 hits and 7 earned runs in 4.1 innings. As a result, his WHIP is 1.37, 0.12 higher than Gray's. His ERA's a whopping 5.79 - almost 3 full runs worse than Gray's. However his advanced ERA metrics are only a little higher than Gray's. On the plus side, he fans a few more and walks a few less than Gray. On the minus side he allows more HRs, has about a 40 point higher BAA and BABIP. Bottom line they're both good pitchers, but Gray's a little better. The bullpen edge also goes to the As by a fair margin. They have more Ws, more saves, better WHIP, ERA and advanced metrics, better BAA and BABIP, Higher K% and Lower BB%. Offensively, the Tigers are generally a little below average, but the As are bottom 10 in most categories and the Tigers score almost a run more than the As. Again, I'm going with the slightly better starting pitcher and the much better pen and at a very reasonable price too. I'll take my chances. PICK - OAK ML (-106)
PHIL @ WASH: Gio Gonzalez has been great and hid advanced metrics say he's really been that good. Jeremy Hellickson has been, well, Jeremy Hellickson. Se started out OK but has quickly deteriorated - 7.1 innings, 17 hits, 10 runs (9 earned in his last 2 starts. The Nats also have a much better bullpen and a much better offense. PICK - WASH RL (+101)
MIL @ CHI Cubs: I don't really like taking a pitcher after he's thrown a no-no, but Arrieta's been incredible. 4 starts - 2 shutouts and 1 no-no, e earned runs in 31 innings! Taylor Jungman's has been awful. The Cubbies have a much better pen and high powered offense. Don't see how the Brewers keep up. Stranger things have happened but PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-135)
CLEV @ MINN: I don't have any data to justify this but,
(1) I think Josh Tolin's overrated and gives up to many HRs. His numbers are good by it's a real small sample size and I'm not buying it.
(2) From Waht I've read, Berrios has the talent and ability to be the staff ace from day one. He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He has posted a 1.06 ERA and 20:8 K:BB in three starts (17 innings) with Triple-A Rochester this season.
(3) The Indians have never seen him.
It's not much to go on but PICK - MINN ML (-103)
STL @ ARIZ: To me this one is pretty simple. Adam Wainwright's hasn't been Adam Wainwright (1.75 WHIP, 7.25 ERA and advanced metrics close to 6. That's not the Adam Wainwright that I've watched for year now. Patrick Corbin hasn't been great but he's been a lot better than Wainwright (1.25 WHIP, 3.51 ERA, and advanced metrics just over 4). The bullpens are both very solid. The Dbacks have 2 more Ws and 4 more holds , but The Cards have a slightly better ERA and metrics. Both offenses are potent but STL averages more than a run more than ARIZ. The difference in this one is that one pitcher's in decent form and the other's in poor form. Until, further notice I'm looking to fade Adam Wainwright PICK ARIZ - ML (-116)
KC @ LAA: Chris Young was never a very good pitcher. Somehow, he managed to outperform his metrics. Not anymore. He got a 1.63 WHIP and a 6.41 ERA. His advanced metrics all hover around 5. Chris Young remains fade material for me. Nick Tropeano is strange. He has yet to go 6 inning in any of his 3 starts but he doesn't allow much in those first 5. Make no mistake the Royals do have the better bullpen with 1 more win, 3 less losses, 1 more save and a 9% higher strand rate. The royals pen is also about a full run better in ERA and the advanced metrics. On offense the Royals average almost a full run more per game and are in the top half of the league in BA, OBPS and SLG. I'm still fading Young PICK - LAA ML (-120)