I've been in and out of pregame for awhile but I would like to attempt to start a daily thread for the following reasons: 1) Associate with "like-minded" people when it comes to sports betting and handicapping. It seems that I can never get along with regulars @ the local shops. When I strike a conversation with the average bettor, the common "red flags" come seeping out in conversation...mispronunciation of names ex: "Koochel is going to dominate today!" (Sorry this bothers me), people ranting about their parlays, and nonsense ex: "Whenever you see a run line dog @ -180 or more its a for sure winner!" (Wait what??). Not that I hold myself in high regards; I'm no guru or wiz kid, just a working class dude who has a passion for sports betting. 2) I believe this thread will keep me accountable. Think of it as checks and balances. Yes it will be a sacrifice, but writing down my daily thoughts will keep me even more in-tune with the betting markets and less distracted. Now that my rant is over let us begin.
Friday 10/9
Tex @ Tor (-180) O/U 8
My first thoughts on this game is that Toronto is extremely over valued. I personally would price Toronto closer to -150. They are up against the ropes and giving the ball to a green Marcus Stroman in a must-win situation. Add in that you may be without Donaldson and even Bautista and this line confounds me even more. I dont think the markets have caught up to this Tex team yet and I will most definitely buy here.
HOU @ KC (??)
My guess is that this game will be similarly priced to game one (-135 range). I missed big time fading the young Astros off their biggest win in years and they proved me wrong. The problem is I may have been simply unlucky (famous last words when it comes sports betting). Although Ventura looked disappointing before the rain delay, I wasn't too impressed with McHugh's numbers either. KC's nature is to bounce back and what better pitcher to put out there than..wait Cueto has been a flop for the Royals, not an utter disappointment but definitely underachieving in every sense of the word. If I can grab the Royals in the dollar twenty range I may consider, but until I see a line, I'm as blind as anybody.
CHI @ STL (-106) O/U 6.5
Two veteran pitchers with comparable experience and numbers. Although an argument could be made that Lackey's numbers are a bit weaker by comparing their fip and xfip, the Cards are simply the better team in terms of hitting and bullpen strength. Not to mention an 18-9 home record thru 2011 in the playoffs. The point is there is value. If the line moves even further towards the Cubs I will definitely buy the Cardinals. Now, with that said, I think the under is presents a little value at 6.5 runs with little juice. The Cardinals are atrocious versus lefties, and with two veterans on the mound both with playoff experience, the game could easily turn into a pitchers duel. I'll buy under and possibly the Cards. Not really a fan of buying a total and side on the same game but it may be warranted depending on the line move.