I am a Cub's fan and have seen most of their games this year, have some guesses about their strengths and weaknesses.
I am down for a small wager on the Pirates at the ML, yes I think there is good value there. If the Cubs win, all the better.
Arrieta maintained his stuff all the way through his last start so there is no sign of tiredness and it probably doesn't matter that Pitt has faced him a bunch of times. Were I the Pirates, I would want to make him throw some pitches but at the same time, I'd swing at a few first pitch fast balls too and just focus on looking to swing at pitches in a small area. They have to try and get into the Cub's bullpen, which is not great, though they could trot Lester out there in a pinch, I guess.
Cole is no slouch.
Maddon has been doing "goofy stuff" with the Cub's lineup over the last few weeks, in games that matter too. Maybe he was trying to keep them loose but I don't quite get it. At any rate, it'll be interesting to see what he does with that and with Schwarber, who started out looking like Trout + and is now slumping.
I think the key differences between the teams, that will matter, are that the Cubs strike out a lot, Pitt doesn't and, the Cubs are very young and inexperienced, Maddon or no.
I also have a prop bet on McCutchen Vs. Bryant total bases, as Kris has been in major whiff mode for the last while.
Yes, the Under sounds good but 5 1/2 is too small for me - there are some home run hitters out there, no matter who is pitching.
Arrieta could trump everything and I kind of hope he does, but am guessing not.
BOL.