2015 MLB Record
123 – 122 for -0.7 Units
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2015 MLB Playoffs Record
0 – 0 for 0 Units
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#1: New York Yankees +100
On the surface Keuchel is a bad matchup for New York. He’s allowed 0 ER’s and struck out 21 in 16 innings against them this year, he dominates lefties, and has won 20 games. But if we dig in a little deeper, there are a few factors going against him here. First, Keuchel is not as good on the road as he is at home. Let’s compare some of key stats:
Keuchel home: 28% K-rate, 0.3 HR/9, 2.0/2.2 FIP/xFIP
Keuchel road: 18% K-rate; 1.1 HR/9; 4.0/3.5 FIP/xFIP
These are some very different numbers here as you can see. Going up against a Yankee lineup that ranks 4th against both the fastball and slider (2nd half of the year) won’t be as easy for the 3rd time this year. Of course Keuchel’s changeup is filthy, and New York has really struggled against this pitch (29th out of 30 in the 2nd half of the year). This brings me to the 2nd factor, and that’s the fact that Keuchel is pitching on 3-days rest, something’s he’s never done in his career before. If anything is a tad ‘off’ with his delivery and control tonight, he could be in trouble. Furthermore, I know he threw 99 pitches in his last start on 10/02, but prior to that he’s coming off a 116 and a 122 pitch outings. Astros really have no other choice but to go with him tonight, but I’m wondering if this could very well be a major factor.
As far as Tanaka is concerned, he’s well rested for this start. His last outing was actually 5 days ago and prior to that he skipped a start due to a minor hammy injury. Yes, he got ‘rocked’ at Houston early this year (6 runs in 5 innings), in his first start against them in his career. But that was one start, on the road, and to expect a similar result is unrealistic. Tanaka has a 5-pitch repertoire and is very difficult to pick up when he’s on. He has a 23% K-rate on the season and the Astros love to strike out a ton. They also of course love to hit HR’s (2nd in the league behind only TOR), and that’s where there’s some risk with Tanaka. He has a 1.5 HR/9 rate on the year and 1.75 HR/9 at home. His control is excellent though and even if he gives up a homer, hopefully no one is on base at the time.
Finally, I think it’s important to point out that Astros are only 33-48 (41% win rate) on the road this year, the worst mark of any team in the post-season. This is a young team that unexpectedly made the post-season this year, and we’ll see how they handle the pressure of a big playoff game on the road. I know the Yankees at the very least have a lot of veterans with post-season experience in Rodgriguez, Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltran, McCann. I don’t see these guys getting fazed by a big moment like this. Not so sure about Houston’s young guys behind their ace who is pitching on 3-days rest. I like New York’s chances at home in this one in their first post-season appearance since 2012.
Good Luck