2015 MLB Record
103 – 99 for +4.65 Units
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#1: Colorado Rockies +105 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Vogelsong on the road is almost an auto-fade. The guy has a 5.0 FIP, 1.4 HR/9, and a high 10% BB-rate on the road this year. Compare that to Rusin’s 3.6 FIP, 0.8 HR/9, and 6% BB-rate at home and you see how big of a difference there is in this matchup tonight. Furthermore, Giants’ offense ranks 27th in ISO against left-handed pitchers. As long as Rusin doesn’t issue too many free passes and keeps the ball on the ground (51% GB-rate), San Fran will need to string a bunch of hits to score runs off him. On the other side, Colorado ranks 2nd in ISO against right-handers so it could be ‘bombs away’ time against Vogelsong. Rusin is a ‘better’ pitcher from my perspective and Rockies’ offense is much more likely to put up runs in a hurry in this matchup. My model has this one at -112 Colorado so I’ll grab the value with them in the 1st 5 innings (Rockies have the 30th ranked BP over the last 30-days so best to avoid the later innings).
#2: San Diego Padres +130 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Here are the numbers for the starting pitchers tonight:
Latos: 20% K-rate; 7% BB-rate; 0.84 HR/9; 3.7 xFIP; 3.9 SIERA; 44% GB-rate
Rea: 18% K-rate; 7% BB-rate; 0.92 HR/9; 3.7 xFIP; 3.9 SIERA; 49% GB-rate
Interesting, as the advanced stats have these two pegged as virtually very similar pitchers. Of course the big difference is that Latos sports a 4.8 ERA while Rea is at 6.0. Looking at Rea’s inflated 0.339 BABIP and a ridiculously low strand-rate of 59%, it’s not hard to determine that ‘luck’ played at least some part in that inflated ERA number. In his home starts he’s registered 12 K’s in 14 innings and only 1 HR allowed. Dodgers’ offense ranks 20th in the last 30 days, a way worse ranking than their #2 season-long mark. Plus they’re facing Rea for the very first time in his career. I think Rea has a shot to keep them from scoring too many runs off him, especially in the first 5. Both Kimbrel and Benoit threw over 30 pitches last night so not sure how efficient they’ll be tonight. Regardless, I have this one at -101 Padres so there’s plenty of value here.
Good Luck