Coach Fletcher’s Friday Free Pick
Friday, August 28
5:10 pm Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
The Pick Houston Astros -130 The Greek
Kazmir and 1st Place Astros Challenge Twins
Scott Kazmir fits in quite well at Houston. Since he has come over in the trade from Oakland, the Astros have the best ERA in baseball at 2.57. They also have the best ERA of any rotation at 2.60. Kazmir is 3rd in the AL with a 2.39 ERA.
The Pitchers
Astros Twins
- Kazmir, 7-8, .239 era Gibson, 8-9, 3.96 era
- 2-5, 3.19 era road 5-4, 3.12 era home
- 1-2, 4.76 last 3 0-0. 5.40 era last 3
- 2-3, 2.17 era last 7 0-3, 7.22 era last 7
- 5-5, 2.96 era last 15 4-6, 4.88 era last 15
- 1-2, 1.47 era on road (Astro) 5-4, 3.12 era home
- 2-3, 2.41 era night (Astro) 5-4, 3.97 era night
- 1-3, 3.97 era August (Astro) 0-1, 6.35 era August
- 2-3, 2.41 era post All-Star (Astro) 0-3, 7.22 era August
- LH hit .221 against LH hit .240 against
- RH hit .210 against RH hit .280 against
It appears that Kazmir may actually be trending downward. His last 3 starts are troublesome, but they came against 3 clubs with decent records – the Dodgers and Giants; and 1 start against the almost .500 Rays. This will be Kazmir’s 7th start with Houston. He’s 2-3 as an Astro with a 2.41 era. Houston is 3-3 in his starts. Gibson is hard to figure. He won 4 consecutive starts from June 27 – July 12 and hasn’t won once since. He’s 0-3 with a 7.22 era in his last 7 allowing 48 hits in 38 2/3 innings. But he has a nice record and era at home and he is 2-0 with a 2.55 era against the Astros in 3 starts, although that was last year.
The Bullpens
- Houston – 3.20 road (2.57 home) Twins – 3.68 home (3.94 overall)
The Hitters
Warning: The Astros offensive numbers are not impressive. But their record is impressive. They play Earl Weaver baseball – good pitching, good fielding and 3 run homers.
Astros Twins
- 4.3 runs per game 4.4 runs per game
- 4.3 runs per game road 4.8 runs per game home
- 4.6 runs per game RHP 4.9 runs per game LHP
- 4.3 runs per game last 7 (NYY;LAD) 6.4 runs per game last 7 (TBay, Balt)
- 4.3 runs per game night 4.6 runs per game night
- +98 run differential -8 run differential
- 7.80 hits per game (30th MLB) 8.97 hits per game home
- 1.18 HR per game road 1.08 HR per game home
- 2.94 BB per game road 3.05 BB per game home
- 8.82 K’s per game away (29th MLB) 6.79 K’s per game home
- 13.79 total bases per game road 14.42 total bases per game home
- .238 average on road (30th MLB) .271 average at home
- .393 slugging % away .435 slugging % home
- .301 on base % road .322 on base % home
- .694 on base plus slugging road .758 on base plus slugging home
Looking at these numbers you would never guess that Houston was in first place and Minnesota was a second place team. But there are a couple of ‘x’ factors in play. Minnesota’s number are huge at home compared to the road. It doesn’t really make all that much sense because Target Field is ranked the 14th most favorable stadium for hitters in MLB and that’s just a smidgeon under the mid-way point. Another thing that doesn’t make sense is that the Astro numbers are much higher at home than on the road. It doesn’t make sense because Minute Maid Park is ranked as the 25th most hitter friendly stadium in baseball. The biggest factor is going to boil down to the pitching and it will show up in Odds and Ends.
Odds and Ends
Astros Twins
- 71-57 65-61
- Plus 0.7 run differential per game Even run differential per game
- 3.6 runs allowed per game 4.4 runs allowed per game
- 26-36 road 38-24 home
- 13-11 August 12-12 August
- 48-38 at night 38-33 at night
- 46-35 vs RHP 22-19 vs LHP
- 22-8 vs team w/winning record 25-33 vs team w/winning record
- 10-4 vs team w/winning record 2nd half 12-14 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
- 1 HR every 24.60 at bats 1 HR every 35.38 at bats
- 1.87 hits per run 1.93 hits per run
- Minnesota is 8-4 vs Houston over last 3 seasons
- Minnesota is 4-2 vs Houston at Minnesota the last 3 seasons
Coach’s Conclusion:
It is difficult to play games on a card like today. When we have 6 games lined -200 or higher, it makes it tough at times. Here’s what I can take away from these numbers
- Houston has the pitching edge ( Minn allows 0.8 runs per game more)
- Minnesota has the hitting edge (score 0.1 run per game more – almost neglible)
Here are the Odds and Ends that I like and that I don’t like.
- Run differential heavy in Houston’s favor
- Runs allowed heavy in Houston’s favor
- Better record vs RHP than Minn vs LHP
- Better record by far vs teams w/winning records
What I don’t like
- Houston’s road record
- Houston’s head to head record
As I’ve said too many times I value pitching first of all, then defense (even), then hitting. Even if Kazmir is off a little, he’s probably going to be better than Gibson. So I am going with Houston at the reasonable price with Kazmir in this one.
The Pick Houston -130 The Greek
Special Early-Bird Bulk Dollar Offer: $1,200 gets you $2,500 Bulk Dollars! Get OVER 100% More Buying Power! Bulk Dollars spend just like cash at Pregame. This limited-time Bulk Dollar special offers the biggest bonus - OVER 100% Bonus on your money! Buy Bulk Dollars and never pay full price again. Check them out here!
Here is the Link: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=61497#capper