Hey fellas,
Was out of town last week, helping a youth organization in Chicago with a soccer camp for kids.
It was a blast but of course didn't leave much time for handicapping. Back at it going forward with 2 plays for today.
2015 MLB Record
83 – 73 for +10.75 Units
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#1: Houston Astros -102
One big critical factor in this game is the status of each of these respective team’s bullpens. Houston’s #3 ranked unit is fully rested and ready to go. Rangers’ 30th ranked group isn’t in as good of a shape. Tolleson (their closer) threw yesterday and has appeared in 5 of the last 6 days. Dyson threw in 3 straight games. And Diekman received a day off yesterday, after throwing in 3 straight prior to it. Once again, I want to reiterate that this is a 30th ranked unit in the league and they’re not in the best of shape from the fatigue standpoint going into tonight.
Part of the reason why I think bullpens is a huge factor in tonight’s matchup, is Gallardo’s inability to eat up innings lately. In his last 6 starts he’s averaged 5.1 innings per start. In addition he’s registered more BB’s (20) than K’s (13) during this time-span. His average SIERA is 6.2 during this time-span, a number that would make him by far the worst pitcher in the league if prorated over a full season (Chi Chi Gonzalez, another Rangers pitcher consequently, currently has the worst mark at 5.6 on the year). I think as the season has gone on, and these AL teams have seen Gallardo more and more, they’ve had much more success against him lately. Gallardo registered a 3.2 SIERA against Houston on 04/11, his first start against them, and a miserable 6.7 mark on 07/19, when he faced them for the 2nd time. At the same time, Gallardo’s 5.9 xFIP in the month of July has been the worst mark of the season for him. Clearly, this is a pitcher that is really struggling right now.
As far as Straily, there are a couple of things to like with him. His slider/changeup have been effective pitches so far (only 2 starts on the year), which should help in hopefully keeping Rangers’ lefty hitters at bay. In addition, his 23% K-rate has been excellent as well as his 11.2% SwStr%. Hitters aren’t picking up his stuff very well right now, and since he last faced the Rangers in April of 2014, hopefully it’ll take Texas hitters a few times through the rotation to develop a feel for Straily’s stuff. He is definitely throwing more sliders and changeups this year than he did last season, so Rangers will be facing a different pitcher than in the past. I think the overall pitching advantage goes to the Astros in this matchup, and they’re also a slightly more effective offensive team on the year as well (#4 vs #12 for Texas). My model projects this one at -122 Houston so I’ll grab a little bit of ‘value’ with them in this one as well.
#2: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 Innings ONLY) -110
Here are Verlander’s last 4 starts:
@ TB: 8.0 inn; 4 hits; 1 run; 10 to 0 K:BB
@ BOS: 8.0 inn; 7 hits; 1 run; 3 to 0 K:BB
Vs BAL: 3.2 inn; 8 hits; 7 runs; 4 to 1 K:BB
@ MIN: 7.2 inn; 5 hits; 1 run; 6 to 1 K:BB
He’s had 3 excellent starts and one really bad one in this span. But overall, his 23 to 2 K:BB ratio in the last 20.1 innings of work has been excellent. Duffy on the other hand has really struggled lately. His 5.7/5.2 FIP/xFIP in July has been by far the worst month of his year, as he’s issued 12 BB’s to only 12 K’s in his 32.1 innings of work in the month. Now he’ll get to face a Tigers offense that ranks 2nd against lefties on the season and 5th overall over the last 30-days. Remember, Miggy has been on the shelf for about a month, yet Tigers’ offense continues to produce. Even without Cespedes, this is still a very strong unit. Besides, Duffy ranks 165th against right-handers on the season, the worst mark out of any pitcher in my database. His 5.3/5.0 FIP/xFIP against them is atrocious, and you can expect at least 7 or 8 right-handers in the lineup for the Tigers tonight. My model has this one at -122 Tigers, providing some solid value on them in this one. And of course there’s a huge mismatch between both teams’ bullpens, so 1st 5 Innings is a much better play tonight.
Good Luck