We cashed our free one on the D-Backs Monday, and in fact cashed all our bets. We are just "on to tomorrow".
904 PHI / 903 LOSOVER 8 Pinnacle |
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Analysis: There are too many ways these teams get to four runs each, IMO. First we've got Williams who we know to be terrible. He's got an ERA of 6.36, a WHIP of 1.69, and he's allowed 17 home runs in 80 innings. Just add that to the fact that he hardly ever pitches very deep, the Phillies pen is minus on decent closer, and they've given up 10 or more hits in four of five games. That includes two games against Atlanta. The Phillies HAVE ten or more hits in six of eight games, not face Alex Wood. He comes over from the Braves, so the Phillies have seen tons of him, and so have I. He's had three straight huge pitch-count games, and the last one was 112. Far too many for someone like him that's not used to it. He faced the Phillies a month ago and allowed ten hits in six innings. They're in a hitters' park, the Phillies are 28-20 to the over at home, the weather is supposed to be conducive to balls carrying, the Dodgers' pen has been brutal lately, and that's all there is to this. If LA is supposed to win, we get the last at bat. If LA is supposed to win handily, we get the "B" team out of the pen. The bottom line is that if this is a pitcher's duel between Wood and Williams, I'll be very surprised. It doesn't matter much who is in and who is not, but with days off, I expect the better lineups.
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Cubs-Pirates: Happ hasn't thrown 100 pitches in a month, and the last time he did that it took him only four innings to do it. He could have a slight advantage back in the NL without having to pitch to a DH, but then there's him having to bat. The upside for the Pirates is that the Cub haven't seen much of him, but the Cubs have been good (13-8 going into Monday) against left handed pitching. Arrieta's season long WHIP of 1.02 is impossible to ignore. Nor is his not giving up more than three earned runs in his last eight starts and relatively low pitch counts the last two games. Throw out McCutcheon and he's owned the Pirates.
Arizona-Washington: If the D-Backs hold on the a 4-0 lead they have as I type, betting on Arizona here would be asking the Nationals to lose at least five straight. But, with a total of 6.5 at the moment they're giving some credibility to Corbin and perhaps the Arizona RL is a viable option. Max is Max - but Max can be had. The Pirates lit him up so the aura of invincibility is less - and that last 109 pitch shutout was against Miami, so disregard. Since Arizona hasn't seen him per se, Washington F5 -.5 or whatever might work, but I won't lay the -1.5 with a home team. Especially one that's really struggled to score. Corbin has obviously been on fire, and the Nats have seen a little of him and do tend to fare better against LHP. Under is quite likely a great bet.
Dodgers-Phillies: Interesting that because it's the Phillies/Williams and the "Dodgers" that Wood is such a heavy road favorite. Let's not forget he came from Atlanta so the Phillies have seen plenty of him. He's thrown 100+ pitches in three straight games and 112 in his last "gem" at Baltimore (who hadn't seen him). Yes, Jerome Williams has had some pretty difficult outings, to say the least. I'd love to try to make a case for Philadelphia someone. Maybe Williams threw a ton of road games against really good hitting teams. Hard to say - one thing in his favor is the Dodgers haven't seen much of him, but neither had Toronto last week.
Giants-Braves: The Giants are off to a 4-0 lead in Atlanta, so a good no-call so far by us. That could make them somewhat more favorable tomorrow, clearly a better line, and now in the second game back. And of course their best hope on the mound. If Simmons is playing that might make it more palatable. He's (Simmons) not the be-all end-all, but he's as much the heart of that team as Freeman at times. Peavy's road starts haven't been as solid as at home, but perhaps that's the big park in SF, but Turner Field isn't much different, so very likely a low scoring game.
Miami-Mets: With Niese against Hand it sure looks like they're making it easy to take the Mets at -130 or whatever. Niese is who he is, and CAN be a great ground ball pitcher, but the Fish have hit him well, and if Stanton were playing (he's crushed Niese) then IMO the Fish might be favored here. Hand has come out of the pen most of the year, so one might expect the Fish need at least 3, probably more, bullpen innings. So, any bet here is predicated on bullpen use in the Monday game, because one cannot say with any certainty that Niese is just the right side. IMO.
I'll finish this sometime.