Coach Fletcher’s Friday Free Pick
Friday, July 31
5:10 pm Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins
The Pick Minnesota Twins -107 Pinnacle
Twins Try to Take Down Taijuan Walker and M’s
The Minnesota Twins are in a real battle for 2nd place in the AL Central and a Wild Card playoff berth. They are far back of the first place Royals and the 3rd place White Sox are charging. It appears that the Mariners are coming in at the right time for the Twins.
The Pitchers
It’s been a tale of 2 seasons for young Taiwan Walker. He started out 5-0 with a brilliant 1.67 era and then the roof caved in.
Walkers, M’s Milone, Twins
- Walker – 7-7, 5.03 ; Milone – 5-2, 3.58
- Walker – 5-4, 5.84 era on road ; Milone – 4-1, 4.08 era at home
- Walker – 0-1, 8.22 era last 3 ; Milone – 1-1, 5.74 era last 3
- Walker – 3-1, 5.09 era last 7 ; Milone – 3-1, 3.10 era last 7
- Walker – 6-4, 4.10 era last 15 ; Milone – 5-2, 3.58 era last 15
- Walker – no starts vs Twins ; Milone – 3-4, 3.48 era vs M’s
- Walker – 6-4, 5.16 era at night ; Milone – 2-1, 4.10 era at night
- Walker – July – 1-1, 6.26 era ; Milone – July - 1-1, 4.57 era
- Walker – 0-0, 6.97 era post All-Star ; Milone – 0-1, 9.35 era post All-Star
Neither pitcher seems to be headed to Cooperstown. Milone’s post All-Star numbers are twisted due to 5 runs in 2 2/3 he gave up in Oakland. The last start wasn’t good either. He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings to the NYY. He’s been bitten by the home run ball – 5 in his last 2 games. Walker’s given up 8 runs in his last 10 1/3. Neither pitchers seems to be getting outs. But I’ll take Milone’s over-all numbers over Walker. Yes – I’m thinking about an over play myself.
The Offense
M’s Twins
- M’s – 3.6 runs per game ; Twins – 4.2 runs per game
- M’s - .238 batting average ; Twins - .253 batting average
- M’s – 3.7 runs per game, .226 avg on road ; Twins - 4.9 runs per game, .281 average at home
- M’s – 3.1 runs per game, . 241 vs LHP ; Twins – 3.8 runs per game, .248 vs RHP
- M’s – 4.1 runs per game, .260 last 7 ; Twins – 4.7 runs per game, .283 avg last 7
- M’s – 3.7 runs per game, .248 avg at night ; Twins – 4.7 runs per game, .247 at night
- M’s – 26th in MLB hits per game ; Twins – 18th in MLB hits per game
- M’s – 19th in MLB slugging % ; Twins – 14th in MLB slugging %
- M’s – 27th in MLB on base % ; 22nd in MLB on base %
The Twins have a few important and sizeable edges here. There is a 1.2 run per game difference in away/home. That’s significant. There is a 1.0 run differential at night. The Twins have the better offense, but neither have an offense for the ages.
Odds and Ends – Pushes to Side Strongly to Twins
M’s Twins
- M’s – MINUS 0.6 run differential ; Twins – PLUS 0.6 run differential
- M’s – 46-57 ; Twins – 53-48
- M’s – 24-26 on road ; Twins – 33-20 at home
- M’s – 11-15 in July ; Twins – 12-12 in July
- M’s – 32-38 at night ; Twins – 28-25 at night
- M’s – 11-16 vs LHP ; Twins – 34-32 vs RHP
- M’s – 20-28 playing team w/ winning record ; Twins – 32-19 vs teams w/losing record
You look at the Twins numbers and actually begin to wonder how they have been able to stay so high in the standings. They excel in 2 areas – both of which are in play here. They have a high win percentage at home and a high win percentage against teams with losing records.
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Twins are in 2nd place because they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat at home. Seattle fits the bill on both accounts. Milone may not be the best starter in the rotation but he has been reasonably consistent and has a decent era. It’s hard to figure out what happened with Walker. He has an outstanding BB/K ration so it’s not his control. Milone has much better form if we go back a few starts. I was quite surprised to see this open at -107 Seattle. I made the line on this game Minnesota -135. I’ll take the Twins.
The Pick – Minnesota Twins -107 Pinnacle