Coach Fletcher’s Wednesday Free Pick
Wednesday, July 22
12:40 pm San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
The Pick Giants +101 Pinnacle
Shields Faces Cain in San Diego
James Shields is receiving less attention with the Padres than he did in the past with the Rays and Royals. But it isn’t because he is pitching poorly. In fact, Shields is having a very nice season. Matt Cain has had 2 bombs and one beauty in his 3 starts after exiting the DL. Even though his record against the Padres is horrible, Cain’s era is low. If he can gather himself here, the hot hitting Giants should be able to take down Shields and the Friars.
Shields, Padres Cain, Giants
- Shields - 8-3, 3.92 era ; Cain – 1-1, 5.06 era
- Shields – 4-1, 2.68 era home ; Cain – 0-1, 8.10 era on road
- Shields – 1-0, .260 era last 3 ; Cain – 1-1, 5.06 era last 3
- Shields – 2-3, 4.66 era vs Giants ; Cain – 7-14, 3.18 era vs Padres
- Shields – 3-2, 4.93 era in day
- Shields – 8-3, 3.92 era on grass
- July – 1-1, 2.63 era
- Shields – last start – 5 innings, 1 run, 7 hits
- Cain – last start – 5 innings, 4 runs, 8 hits
It’s hard to guess what Cain will do tomorrow. He’s had two bad starts with 1 superb start in the middle where he went 6 innings and gave up 0 runs and 2 hits to the Mets. I’m forecasting some improvement here based on his low era in many appearances versus the Padres. In addition, Shields seems far less effective in the daytime. Despite some problems, the SF bullpen is almost half a run better than the Padres.
Hitting Edge Goes to the Giants
Padres Giants
- Padres -3.9 runs per game ; Giants – 4.2 runs per game
- Padres - .238 batting avg overall ; Giants - .270 batting average overall
- Padres – 4.0 rpg, .237 avg at home ; Giants – 4.8 rpg, .270 avg on road
- Padres – 3.7 rpg, .235 vs RHP ; Giants – 4.3 rpg, .270 vs RHP
- Padres – 3.7 rpg, .233 last 7 ; Giants – 6.4 rpg, .335 last 7
- Padres – 3.9 rpg, .237 avg on grass ; Giants – 4.2 rpg, .270 avg on grass
- Padres – 4.1 rpg, .239 avg in day ; Giants – 4.2 rpg, .270 avg in day
- Padres – 27th in MLB batting average ; Giants – 4th in MLB batting average
- Padres – 24th in total bases per game ; Giants – 10th in MLB total bases per game
- Padres – 25th in MLB slugging %; Giants - 9th in MLB slugging%
- Padres – 29th in MLB on base % ; Giants – 4th in MLB on base %
This is a sizeable mismatch in offensive numbers. Whether its average, on base % or slugging %, the Giants have a huge edge. This can make up for some pitching deficits when the numbers are this one sided. With Hunter Pence back and only Andrew Sisec on the DL, the Giants are rounding into their championship form.
Odds and Ends – The Slate is Fairly Even Here
Giants Padres
- Giants – 49-44 ; Padres 44-49
- Giants – 24-22 on road ; Padres 21-22 at home
- Giants – 35-36 vs RHP ; Padres – 32-39 vs RHP
- Giants – 18-13 day games ; Padres – 12-16 in day games
- Giants – 25-23 in division ; Padres – 24-21 in division
- Padres – 16-8 vs Giants at San Diego last 3 seasons
- Padres – 4-1 vs Giants at San Diego this season
Coach’s Conclusion:
When I first looked at this game I was leaning toward Shields and the Padres. But the more I delved into the numbers I changed my first opinion. Cain should only improve and the Giants should be able to score runs off of Shields in a daytime contest. I happened to be at the Giant – Padre game on June 25th and the Giants knocked him around pretty good. If his control is intact, he can slow them down. But if his control is off, Shields will be in trouble again. You just can’t overlook the discrepancy in hitting. Hunter Pence is back and he adds a whole different dimension to the Giants.
The Pick Giants +101 Pinnacle