917 TOR (-115) Pinnacle vs 918 DET 1* |
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Analysis: The Tigers haven't seen Estrada, so I considered F5 here - but the Tigers bullpen sucks so there's not reason to take chances. Toronto hit Verlander reasonably well BEFORE he went on the shelf - and they obviously are trying to avoid the embarrassing sweep. I didn't worry with Dickey on the mound yesterday that Cabrerra was out - today I think it matters more.
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In the other games as of this morning:
I have no real good feel for the Sunday Night ESPN game. When I looked last night I really did think Washington was the right side but won't lay -160 against SF. You COULD parlay them with someone early and if/when the first half wins, go back and take the Giants for assured profit.
I tried to back Shelby Miller last week and he got drilled by Washington in the first inning. He's already beaten the Phillies this season and I just like to go the other way in the rematch. Perhaps the Phillies RL again there - Atlanta might not score much off the LHP Hamels.
Perhaps the Cardinals have turned a corner, but they're just not scoring enough to back even in a ML parlay. We know Kennedy can be very good, so I really would take the Padres ML if you made me.
I suspect the Cubs will beat Miami - but laying -145 or whatever doesn't sound like a good idea. Because you've got a "weakened" Fish offense and a "supposed decent" pitcher in Latos, we might get a decent number to take the over. Weather should cooperate.
If I ever fade the Dodgers it's against a LHP. Because the Dodgers haven't seen Matz I would consider the Mets F5 and Dodgers for the game. He threw a lot of pitches last week to the Reds.
I don't have much of a feel for the D-Backs game - since we haven't been paying much attention to that series. Gun to the head I would simply take the Rockies against a RHP only because they are pitiful (3-12) against LHP's. Everyone and their brother will probably be on the over - so I would think about the under after they bet it up.
The Rays almost came back to beat Pineda yesterday - so they've actually got some confidence and Nova isn't Pineda. I don't trust their pen at all, so like yesterday Rays F5 and probably over.
I thought I'd find an angle in the Boston game, but neither team has seen the opposing starter - so that may well be a game to pass. The instinct would be F5 under til the settle in, perhaps.
There's a big part of me that wants to back Santana - mainly as a fade of Duffy because Minnesota has killed left handed pitchers this season. Maybe F5 since Ervin is clearly the more rested pitcher.
Baltimore or nothing - I can't back the White Sox offense, but the Orioles haven't been crushing it and don't have exposure to Rodon.
I lean Indians ONLY because Cole is not a LHP. Have to think at 7 it's under.
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