2015 MLB Record
65 – 53 for +12.39 Units
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#1: Pittsburgh Pirates -110
In Verlander’s first two starts of the season he went 11.2 innings, allowed 13 hits (4 HR’s) and 8 runs, and had a 4:3 K:BB rate. I have no idea why the Tigers let him do this, but they allowed him to throw 117 pitches in his last outing on 06/19, which led to back-stiffness, causing him to miss his next scheduled start. Supposedly he’s alright to get on the mound tonight. We shall see. First, it’s important to note that Verlander only had 4 K’s in his first 11.2 innings of work. For a guy that is a fly-ball pitcher, that’s just not going to get it done. Second, 4 HR’s in 11.2 innings is a major concern as well. Verlander’s M.O. over the years was to have a strong strike-out rate (22% career) and a low HR/FB rate (7.9% career). Well that hasn’t been the case in the first two starts of the year. Can Verlander turn things around? Possibly. But let’s remember, he was mediocre last year (4.5 ERA), is coming off a hip-surgery last off-season, and now missed the first 2.5 months of the year with a tricep strain. This is a pitcher who used to dial back and throw 100 MPH at times, but has last averaged above 93 MPH in the 2013 season. Even if Verlander has a strong outing, I expect the Tigers to have him on a pitch-count this time around. They won’t let him throw 117 pitches again. That’s another factor in Pittsburgh’s favor. The Pirates have the 6th ranked BP, while Detroit’s is #28 on the year. Tigers’ pen has ranked dead-last over the last 30-days (Pittsburgh’s #3), and I’d be surprised if Verlander goes more than 5/6 innings tonight. Strong advantage for the ‘Rats in the second half of this game.
I think it’s pretty clear from my analysis above that the Pirates have a very strong pitching advantage in tonight’s matchup. I haven’t even discussed Gerrit Cole, but there really isn’t much that needs to be said about a top-10 pitcher with a 26% K-rate, a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and a sublime 2.7/2.9/2.9 FxS (FIP / xFIP / SIERA). Plus Cole has absolutely dominated right-handers in his career, holding them to a 2.8 xFIP over his first 3 MLB seasons (2.9 this year). Tigers feature a righty-heavy lineup with only a switch-hitting Victor Martinez being a threat from the other side of the plate (Gose (L) and Romine (S) aren’t even close to being good hitters, while Avila (L) is still on DL through the weekend). The Pirates are 6-0 in Cole’s last 6 interleague starts indicating that he tends to dominate teams that don’t see him on a regular basis. I like this chances of a very strong outing tonight, especially against a Tigers team that is only 2-6 in the last 8 games against a right-handed starter in an interleague game.
Good Luck