2015 MLB Record
64 – 53 for +11.39 Units
**************************
#1: UNDER 4.5 NYY/LAA -120
(1st 5 Innings Only)
These two pitchers squared off on 06/07 in New York. Sabathia gave up 2 HR’s and 2 runs while Wilson allowed 3 HR’s and 6 runs. Even though both starters allowed a ton of homers and 8 combined runs, they also registered 15 K’s and only 1 BB in 13 combined innings (Sabathia with 7 K’s while Wilson with 8). When you look at advanced metrics Sabathia’s 2.7 and Wilson’s 2.6 SIERA’s were some of the best rates these pitchers put up all season long. So if it wasn’t for so many HR’s allowed, their surface stats would have been much better than they were and should have closer matched the underlying advanced ones. Now that today’s matchup is shifting to LA, I think we’ll see that happen.
While Yankee Stadium ranks 2nd in HR-rate this year, Angels Stadium is only 19th. In addition both starters have had 6-days in between starts so expect them to be a bit fresher. The total was set at 8.5 in the first meeting at Yankee stadium and only moved down by half-a-run in the rematch, to 8 tonight. To me that’s too small of an adjustment as my model has this one at 6.9 total runs. The O/U is 3-10 in Yankees road games when the total is between 8-8.5, while it’s 15-7 at home when the number is set in the same range. This indicates to me that bookmakers haven’t often made the right adjustment this year when New York goes on the road, leaving their totals inflated a bit and not properly accounting for the park-factor. Hopefully both starters are ‘on’ tonight, and as long as the HR’s are kept under control I think it’s going to be difficult to go over in the first 5 innings.
I’m playing the 1st 5 innings only, due to a bit of uncertainty with the bullpens in addition to Sabathia’s propensity to really tire-out this year past the 5th inning or so. LA’s top-2 relievers (Street and Smith) have both pitched two straight days, while NY’s key relievers (Betances, Wilson, and Shreve – Miller is on DL) have all appeared in 2 straight games prior to getting yesterday off. I don’t have a ton of faith in either BP being at full strength tonight nor do I want to rely on Sabathia pitching well past the 5th inning.
Good Luck