907 GIANTS (Vogelsong) @ 908 ROCKIES (Kendrick)
Take: GIANTS -112
If this were college football or perhaps even college basketball, I’d probably be looking at a game like this as a potential letdown spot for the Giants. Team coming off a statement win against an arch rival, now going on the road to face a weak opponent. That’s a scheduling dynamic scenario that has letdown written all over it.
But baseball can’t be analyzed like other sports, and while I’m sure there are emotional dead spots for teams, I don’t believe they’re nearly as predictable or easy to recognize. In fact, when it comes to baseball, the idea here is to try and get on teams that are rolling if the money line price doesn’t get in the way and ruin the value. I don’t see that being the case tonight.
Ryan Vogelsong is once again kicking off the dirt after being dead and buried for the umpteenth time. Vogelsong had a terrible spring training and started the regular season off in awful form. But he’s found a way to make another recovery and while his road numbers to date are unattractive, Vogelsong is back to throwing it well enough to give his team a chance to win most nights.
Kyle Kendrick is off a couple of decent starts for Colorado, and perhaps he can get it done again tonight. But given Kendrick’s mediocre track record, I wouldn’t make that happening the favorite tonight.
The team elements clearly favors the Giants. Three straight shutout wins over the hated Dodgers is huge, and while they’re not tearing the cover off the ball, I don’t think there’s any question this is a better offense now that Hunter Pence has returned to action.
The Rockies finally won a series, taking two of three from the lowly Phillies, but there’s not a lot to like about this team right now. If you want to break it down into one statistical category, let’s look at walks taken and walks allowed. Colorado as a team has drawn only 79 walks. The staff has surrendered 141, the third most in the majors.
There are obviously lots of other stats to pore through to explain why the Rockies are so bad. But this one is pretty good. Just focusing on Coors field for a moment, there is no worse ballpark to issue free passes in, because it’s such a good hitter’s stadium, and walks can frequently lead to big innings. Walks also inflate pitch counts and that means less innings for starters and more for an already beleaguered bullpen.
On the flip side, not taking walks at home means less chances for big innings for the Rockies and it’s not like this is one of the great Colorado lineups of all time when it comes to home run power. In fact, the current Rockies are way down the HR list, standing 25th overall with just 30 long balls all season.
Hot road team vs. a badly struggling home team that’s also on the beat up side physically. I also can’t recall less of a home field advantage for Colorado than right at the present time. There’s just not much energy. Maybe things will improve with a few wins and some warmer weather, but right now this is a team that’s bad and playing like they know it, which is a troubling combination.
I’m a bit baffled by this number, to be honest. I figured the Giants to show in the -125 neighborhood tonight, so I’ve got no beefs with price where it is. I’ll look to back the world champs this evening at this number.
--
My 100 Day Baseball Access subscription is available now!