The System is normally slow during the early part of the year, it is just hard to find qualified candidates to chase. Since there hasn't been a full pick in a while, I thought I would post some of the analysis I go though to evaluate the system. The series below was rejected as a full system pick, but here is the process:
CHW vs MIN - 3 game series - 7:10 pm CT
Win Probability: Teams with values like CHW playing teams similar to MIN since 2008 are 37-2 in re-sweep scenarios according to the database. Win probability is set at 94.9%
Breakeven: Weather is supposed to be good until a slight possibility of rain Sunday, so the weather should stay out of our way this time if we decide to chase. This is the team that cost us with a game postponement earlier in the year. The White Sox are between -135 and -140 today. They have Sale against May tomorrow and Quintana against Gibson on Sunday. These are arguably the White Sox three best pitchers and they are at home, so the lines will favor them all weekend. I see -140 today, -170 tomorrow and -140 on Sunday again. Average line is set at -155, potential losses are 15x chase amount, breakeven is set conservatively at 94%.
Statistical Edge: The edge for this series is calculated at +0.9%
Results: While the win probability is strong, it does not breach our 97% threshold for a full system pick. Also, the pitching matchups and home field advantage on the lines are working against us and pushing the breakeven up to where this series has almost no positive edge at all. Though it is promising, we have to categorize this one as a DO NOT BET.
Good luck and thanks for reading!
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Chasing Baseball System Results for 2015:
Side Bets: 5-6 for -0.26 Units
Full Series Chases: 2-0 for +0.58 Units
Full Series Individual Bets: 2-1 for +0.58 units
Overall Bets: 7-7 for +0.32 Units