The MLB ’15 previews continue today with a look at a team that would seem to heading in the wrong direction. But if a few things break right, the Cincinnati Reds could be surprise contenders.
The toughest task when it comes to sizing up the prospects of any team is attempting to figure out the likely production of key players coming off injury plagued campaigns. And so it is with the Reds, as I’m finding it extremely difficult to put projections together for Joey Votto. There isn’t any question he’s the big cog for this baseball team. If the old Votto makes an appearance this year, Cincinnati could have a decent baseball team. But if it’s again Votto looking old, this squad is in deep trouble.
I think I’m more glass empty than full on Votto. I just can’t put him in the elite category anymore, although I won’t rule out the possibility. But it’s not the favorite, and when adding up the rest of the Reds components, it’s not a real pretty picture.
Brandon Phillips still throws the leather with the best at 2B, but his production is declining. Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce can each deliver big power, but neither is a truly big offensive producer. Billy Hamilton should be better with a year under his belt and Devin Mesoraco looks to be above average behind the plate. Marlon Byrd is getting up there in years, and he’s probably best suited as a fourth outfielder at this point. Zack Cozart’s ceiling is probably league average at SS. The Cincinnati bench looks to be below average.
The Reds have a true ace at the top of their rotation and a great closer to finish off games when they’re ahead. Johnny Cueto somehow gets left out of the conversation when it comes to discussing the best pitchers in the game, and I actually think that fuels him. Aroldis Chapman is pretty much game over when he enters a game needing just three outs to seal the deal.
The rest of the staff is a giant question mark. Homer Bailey’s health is a concern. Mike Leake is a solid enough mid-rotation guy but that’s about as good as it’s going to get for him. Tony Cingrani has a live arm but command is still an issue. The fifth slot appears to be a liability regardless of who wins the job. The bullpen in front of Chapman could be better.
I just don’t see a likely scenario where the Reds can contend in the NL Central and I believe the oddsmakers got it right when they put up a 78.5 win total on this team, and also made the Reds the longest shot in the division. I would have to lean Under on this team and if they become sellers at the break, even getting to 75 wins could be a chore.