robdmad said:
Sportsbook has Total Highest SO by any pitcher at 258.5(-115) and Bovada has it at 255.5(-115.) Obviously my biggest concern is the juice, but ultimately, is the three SO cushion worth a poke?
Good question.
First know that if you are laying -115 on each side, the middle has to hit right at 7% to be at least break even. When you look at strikeout leaders over the years, the winner has almost never deviated outside of a window (-25/+25) from the number you are currently given.
That leaves about 50 possible numbers. If they were all worth the same, each number would be 2%, and you getting 3 numbers in the middle, would have at least a 6% chance of hitting.
Luckily for you, the numbers are not all worth the same, and the numbers in the predicted range (250-265) are worth considerably more.
I don't think there's any question this is +EV, the real question you need to ask is if you want to tie up $230 (if you have $100 unit) for 7 months on a bet you have very little chance of winning. Even though you are tying up $230 by betting both sides, your actual risk is only $15 to win $200.