these are for all lined games i could find and does not include ties. looks like the idea of dogs in questionable games has been a good idea so far.
these are for 2010 games through 3-16-10
- Home team has been favored in all but one game. Road team won that one.
- Dogs are 5-4 +1.14 units in games with teams sharing digs.
- Dogs are 33-27 +9.49 units
- Faves are 27-33 -14.14 units
Hey basewinner,
With apologies to those who say they do well during March and God bless them for it, what you're pointing out corroborates what I've long felt about preseason baseball, and this comes from someone who swears by betting baseball during the regular season. Simply put, I never recommend betting grapefruit or cactus league because i firmly believe it's a crapshoot. All one needs to do is look at the lines, which by and large never fall out of the -115 to +110 range to know that even the books have no idea what to make of these games either.
But for those who just absolutely need the action (and again, I stress i would just simply stay away) I always favor the very mechanical "As many dogs as possible" approach. It's simple math. Stay away from any game that would require juice on either side and play all the +105s, +110s, and +115s you can find. It's about as little analysis in baseball betting as I ever dispense, but really, imho, these games require that one remove themselves from the equation.
At least this way those who require the fix can grind out modest wins, as the stats you cited would indicate one could expect.
Gill,
First of all, I am very happy you are posting on the form. You seem to have a great baseball betting mind and it will be nice to hear expert takes in the forum on baseball betting, my favorite subject in the world.
I agree with the crapshoot and dog approach to Spring Training. It's too bad there are not more readily available stats over the last 5 years as far as dog/favorite bias to justify this hypothesis but I am going to try to keep up with this years numbers for the Cactus so I have something at the end of spring. BTW, yesterday was a huge day for the dogs 5-0 +570 capped by Diego's rousing 16-14 win in Surprise vs. KC.
What's funny to me is that you can get so much information on PreSeason football (such things as how a particular coach does in third week of preseason on the road and other obscure stuff) but not so much with the bases. There must be such a thing as managerial biases in Spring based on the coaching philosophy but I can't find any workable info.
Basewinner,
I very much appreciate the kind remarks, my friend.
And you're on to me! When I talk or write about betting on other sports, I enjoy it. When I discuss betting on baseball, it's like crack to me. I cannot get enough of it...the theories, the angles, the analysis, etc. Great to read that we're of like minds. And, likewise, it's so great having you posting your insights, as well.
Yup, the underdog approach sure would've worked well in spades yesterday, huh? Standing by our shared point about the crapshoot of exhibition ball, in general, you do raise a good point about managerial biases. Arriving at a researched conclusion about that could absolutely provide a bit of an edge, in much the same way that it would if we knew an NFL head coach historically played, as you say, the 3rd preseason game by always sticking with his starters for 3 quarters while we knew the opposing coach needed to focus exclusively on his backup QB situation that night and was going to pull his first team after the first series. Baseball is such a different animal obviously, first and foremost w the sheer number of games played before opening day, that one wonders if any broad conclusions could be reached or if you just have to hope for an individual game situation to avail itself.
As you keep your stats, it'll be extremely interesting to see what you can come up with.
thanks gill - i agree with you --- baseball offers so many ways to attack and so many opportunities for line value. It is definitely a game I think with hard work and constant education can be beaten consistently. I'm with you on the high of capping baseball game -- i enjoy it more than anything - Wine, women and song included so that's saying alot!
Anyway, I will keep the fave/dogs stats and try to post them at least twice more in the next two weeks and at the end of spring. Quick question for you, when do you start betting? At the start of the season or do you wait a couple of weeks?
Wine, women, and song too? Wow. I'm with you on wine and song. Women would fall into the "it depends" category, and I'm not talking about whether it's a Padres/Astros game or not, if you know what I mean.
I jump into the regular season from Day 1. Well, one caveat. I do reserve the right to pass on that ESPN Sunday night game that usually precedes the first full slate of games on Monday. (People who have either bought or followed my picks in the past just love when I do that) But, I'm in that first full day because I really believe that there's a lot of lines to exploit right off the bat. That brings up a whole additional topic of whether I look at different things in early season (April and May) versus later in the summer, which I absolutely do. I think the opportunity to build the bankroll is there more in that first month-and-a-half than any other time, so, for me, that begins from jump.
How bout you?
the women thing is a tough choice - but if it was an either or don't take away the baseball, usually gives me more pleasure and almost always less pain. Although a lap dance at the Candy Store would definitely beat out the Pads/Stros if given those were the only choices.
as far as the season picks go - I usually wait until about the last week of April/ Early May so that I can have enough data in my database regarding pitching efficiency, primarily the bully and situational Base Runs created (my favorite offensive metric) although you could argue that one month is not a big enough sample size. But at least this gives me enough to set what I call the "basewinner line" which takes about 30 or so different stats and sets a line which i can compare with Vegas. Then I can tweak it from there.
April baseball IMO requires very good perception and observational skills plus experience. While I think my abilty in these departments are good, I am way more of a numbers and objective stats capper and think there are much better "feel" cappers out there. I think one of the best is GoodFella on the forum - he just amazes me with his reads on teams and I am also looking forward to your takes.
Will definitely check out GoodFella.
I hear you on accumulating data. That was sort of what I was getting at with assessing different parts of the season in different ways. In the most general terms, baseball handicapping for me is always a combination of feel and data. That's true to a certain extent for any ballgame. But I think it's fair to say after all these years that one of the components in that assessment is the time of year. Specifically, those lesser data early season picks you refer to tend to be informed for me by what some might call feel, but what I would prefer to call a feel for value. The gap between perception and reality in the market is widest in April, making it its most inefficient, so I look to capitalize on it.
By the way, this also speaks to how stats can often cloud our instincts, an interesting subject in its own right. And this from a guy who loves poring over MLB stats.