crusader said:
scottsins - you finally posted something so absurd, I simply will not respond to it. Namely your "-10,000"! LOL
You talk about value. I have yet to read anything that you have typed about the word value, since you began entering my threads, in the middle of some dialogue I was having with johnnymo, that makes any sense. Goodness knows what value really means to you. Thank goodness most players have a realistic idea of value when they see it, of course that still does not guarantee victory.
I hate to burst your bubble, but your thoughts re: "the price has EVERYTHING (why the caps), to do with whether you should make a play or not." I have to respectfully disagree with that statement. In fact, it gives me a headache.
I wish you would start a thread on value and prices, and watch some of the comments you get from some of our Pregame Pros, after they read your understanding of value and prices. Until then, I simply can't buy your theories at all. Please, thank you for attempting to "sell" your beliefs, but please, not in this thread. I certainly do not want anyone to think that I agree with your viewpoint on "value" and "price". BOL my friend.
There are no professional handicappers who would ever agree with your statement that price should not influence a bettor's decision. Also, you are not answering my questions, instead reverting to ad hominem attacks.
I'll rephrase, for the sake of discussion, contribution and sharing:
Would you still bet the Royals if they were -250?
Predict the % chance of your bet winning and then compare with the ML. If the ML is markedly "cheaper" that the % chance of winning that you have arrived at, you have found value and that's when you should bet it. These are very fundamental handicapping concepts. Any pro can jump in and correct me if I am incorrect.
example: if I accurately believe a team is 40% likely to win, and they have a ML of +200, I bet them without thinking twice. Keep in mind that this is a bet that I only expect to win 4/10 times. In that scenario, would you bet the +200 dog? Why/why not?
p.s. - I defended a high ML selection of yours on one of your threads in the last 14 days, specifically mentioning probability of winning outcome, M, price and "value" so maybe your HAVE read something from me regarding these concepts and just forgot momentarily.