Something strange is going on in this game and we are going to stay away from making this a full selection. After doing this type of thing for over 30 years you tend to see certain patterns, and when these patterns show up you tend to proceed with caution. Let me explain. We all saw how Miami was every bit as good as the Spurs in the opening game. Because of the high heat LeBron James left the game with severe cramps as the Spurs turned a deficit into a cover with James out of the lineup. A well known fact is how good the Heat have been in the playoffs after a loss. Add it all up and common sense would tell you that Miami is the play. If that’s the case why did this line get bet up from an opener of 3 1/2 to a current number of 4 1/2? I haven’t spoken to anyone I respect who is heavily on the Spurs here. Is it a setup? Who knows, but I’ve seen this type of line movement numerous times and it’s keeping us off the Heat as a full selection. That said, if you are going to play the game we would rather take the points than lay them.
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Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.