College football is finished. The NFL is winding down. It is now time to switch focus from football to basketball and I want to open up the handicapping minds of our Pregame Pros to help you out!For the next 7 days I will have the Pregame Pros jump in with handicapping tips and field your questions on handicapping basketball!I will be PERSONALLY monitoring this thread and contacting the Pros to jump in and answer your handicapping questions!
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First, scoring hit an all-time low last year at 135 PPG. Rule changes have been implemented in the areas of hand checking and the block/charge call aimed at increasing the speed of the game, letting the game flow more easily and opening up the lane. This will benefits teams who already prefer to play in the open court (think North Carolina) and hurt teams who enjoy a physical half-court defensive style (think Pitt). The sooner you identify these teams, the sooner you will begin to reap the benefits of playing on or against them. Note that these rules may be called differently in varying parts of the country and from conference to conference.
Secondly, with FB in full gear, the linemakers focus their attention on teams in the Top 25 and the big name conferences. These are teams that are on ESPN and which draw the largest wagering handle. Your job is to focus on the smaller conference teams, isolating play against teams who are rebuilding, or focusing on veteran teams. These veteran teams should have the continuity of the same coach, strength at point guard or perimeter and have at least 4 or 5 returning starters who won 20 or more games last year. Remember, you must isolate these teams early on. The lines will move on them, both in their initial games, but also very quickly in the early weeks of the season as they prove to be profitable play on or play against teams. In other words, it is never truer than in CBKB that the early bird gets the worm.
With nearly 250 online teams playing 30 or more games per year, this is easily the sport that provides the greatest profit. My fundamental focus on offense is a team’s ability to take care of the basketball, often correlating with the veteran point guard. Defense and rebounding are other key indicators of fundamental success. But unlike other sports, there are HUGE home/road dichotomies and coaching personality pointspread trends that are unable to be reflected in the betting line. Mid-season player additions and injuries are key considerations. November and December CBKB are the biggest winning time in any sport. Do not make the mistake of ignoring this time period because football is in high gear. Please consider, once conference play begins, 42% of the games are decided by 5 or less points from the opening line. Every half point in the betting line is crucial. Following my money management system is essential if you are to maximize profit and minimize cold streaks. This is the biggest money-making sport of the year, hands down.
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Court is back in session as Judge Joe returns with my College Football judgements on Wednesday evenings and NFL on Friday's. Get your best bets into the Official Judge Joe Thread starting Wednesday afternoons and I will render my verdicts until the prosecution rests.
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I will be checking this thread 24/7 and contacting the Pros with each question, so ask away!
Ok....if i were going to buy a package.....which pro is my safest bet?
If you can stomach the volume, I have always been a big fan of Andre Gomes in the NBA.
Ty.....I thought you were gonna say "They're all good." somethin like that. I will consider Andre.
Thanks for this opportunity. I hope what I have posted below is worthy of inclusion.
The key to beating the NBA is to have information that is not already factored into the line. To understand what I mean by this I will present two examples. Let’s say a team has won four straight as a dog and scored 100+ points in every one of those wins. You should NOT bet this team simply because they are playing well. The linesmakers KNOW this. They adjust the line because of this. Imagine how much work goes into making a good line. Do you think you can beat it by betting a team because they are playing well? It ain’t that easy. My Tip #1 is:
Respect the linesmakers. They are not stupid.
Now let’s consider information that is NOT already factored into the line. An obvious example is if you know that a particular key player is not going to play before the linesmakers can adjust the line. This is obviously an advantage, but not one that is available unless you are the brother of an NBA player or a team doctor.
However, there is other information that is not factored into the line and thus can be used to beat the NBA. A wealth of such information can be found by handicapping the performance of individual players in addition to handicapping the team as a whole:
The Seventysixers are 0-12 ATS (-11.92 ppg) when Evan Turner had more turnovers than assists in each of their last two games.
The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-10.33 ppg) on the road when Dwyane Wade’s points scored increased by at least 15 points over their past two games.
The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-8.11 ppg) at home after a road win in which Chris Bosh shot better than 50% from the arc.
The Knicks are 0-9 ATS (-8.17 ppg) after a win in which Carmelo Anthony took more than 20 shots.
The Bulls are 0-14 ATS (-12.54 ppg) after a win in which Carlos Boozer shot worse than 38% from the field.
The Spurs are 12-0 ATS (5.54 ppg) after a road win in which Manu Ginobili scored at least 30 points.
The Heat are 9-0 ATS (12.89 ppg) after a home loss in which Dwyane Wade was NOT their high scorer.
The Raptors are 9-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) at home after a loss in which Demar Derozan scored fewer than 10 points.
The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (8.11 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Kevin Love was NOT the their high scorer.
This last one was active tonight when the Wolves visited the 76ers after a losing at home to the Thunder.
Tip #2. Handicap the performance of the individual players as well as the performance of the team.
Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!
Great stuff Dr. Ed. Always a pleasure to have you sharing that brain!
I think we're due for another hour long Dave Essler Webinar, Johnny
Glad this thread will be at the top of the forum for a couple days. Great work PG
I like the Underdog say +8.5..so i bet them....now during the game...lets say late 1st qtr...Underdog is up 21-9....The live ML on live wagering offers a ML on the fav -125/-120/-115 ish...Now i know the fav is a good team and def can come back..maybe even win or even cover...Is it wise to have my +8.5 dog...and buy the Fav ML -120...for a 8 pt middle Opportunity?...so i get a low risk..high reward type of play and i can relax and not sweat a game...Again...i fully respect the oddmakers.
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