Because I had the time and more or less rated them in order of teams I might want to put money on, strictly as of today. I did notice they've put up the rotation number for Friday's CBB Openers. Oh joy. Big expectations. Already started a #thread on that two weeks ago. It's probably back by @johnnydetroit's first post ever by now :)
Dave's NBA/CBB Package Which Expires at Midnight (I think)
1. Indiana - Still undervalued in most circles. The Pacers are holding opponents under 38% FG shooting, averaging 12 blocks per game, and have already won a road game. This is still a team that was one game from the NBA Final last season, and because they're NOT "The Lakers" there's still plenty of value. Downside here is that early one they're last in the league in turnovers per offensive play, so still volatile, perhaps.
2 - . Houston – I admit I was a non-believer before the season started, more directly just not a Dwight Howard backer. Nothing to with on the court, just the off-court attention that can be a detractor. They’ve gone from near the bottom of the NBA in team defense to being in the top 6. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it’s also a massive turnaround. If Harden stays healthy and motivated, the Rockets should stay near the top of this list all season.
3. San Antonio – Any team that’s as well-coached as the Spurs can’t be out of the top 5, especially when people have been wanting to write them off for several years. Whit Kawhi Leonard ready to emerge as the next All-Star from the Spurs, their consistent defense, and through a few games having the 6th beat team shooting percentage, they’re always a threat.
4. Minnesota - Any team that plays with their pace and still maintains a +1.6 assist/turnover ratio is always near the top. Last season, Love, Rubio, and Pekovic rarely saw the court at the same time and adding Kenyon Martin give them a wing option they didn't have last season. And above average offensive rebounding team, they've simply got a lot of different ways to get it done.
5. L.A. Clippers – I admit to thinking Doc Rivers would have them playing better defense almost instantly. But, with Reddick and Dudley to help spell Paul and keep an outside scoring threat on the floor, they’ve got multiple ways to win basketball games. As the top scoring team in the league through the first week, their defense can only get better. If they can get the mental toughness to win more consistently on the road, we’re moving them up.
6. Miami – Talk all we want about the talent on this team, they’re still one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA. If they’re motivated, they’re fine, but team that accomplish what they’ve accomplished are simply not going to bring it every night. There’s still questions about Wade’s health, as he’s already missed a game. Ray Allen and Shane Battier are going on 40. Adding Oden and Beasely is all well and good, but when the talk in the first week is Lebron’s impending free-agency, that can’t be a good thing night in and night out.
7. Chicago – Too many early expectations of dominance immediately with Rose back after over a year off. That’s simply putting too much pressure on the team, and making them, until the prove it, over valued. Early on they’re allowing close to 100 points per game, which is significantly higher than last season, so something’s just not quite right yet. A Thibideau-coached team is better than that, usually.
8.Brooklyn – If Pierce and Garnett were too old to play in Boston, they’re too old to play in Brooklyn. Yes, on any given night, of course. But the chemistry between the “Big Two” and Lopez, combined with a rookie head coach in Kidd, is just something the jury will stay out on. Shooting barely over 40% from the floor early on just bears that out, especially when combined with only 9 offensive rebounds per game in the early going.
9. Oklahoma City – Another team that “on any given night” will beat anyone, but simply not built for the long haul anymore. With just no supporting cast, it’s more on Durant than ever. From a betting standpoint, and since they’re such a public team, they may have more value going forward than we think. Through the first few games they’re averaging almost TEN points a game less than last year, and that’s just a real problem, and as you’d expect with a one-dimensional team, they’re near the bottom of the league, ahead of only Boston, in team assists per game.
10. Dallas – Not landing Howard in the off-season probably provides more value to Dallas they had. With Howard, Dallas would clearly be a far more public team than with Monta Ellis, but Ellis seems happy to be out of Milwaukee, and he can be a force. With Dirk, anything on any night is possible. The downside to Dallas has and always will be their defense, which is giving up 107 points per game early, which is six points worse than last season. They’ve always been one of the better assist/turnover teams, so they’re not usually going to beat themselves.
11. Atlanta – People will be quick to downgrade the Hawks with the departure of Joe Smith, but Paul Millsap is a more than adequate replacement. The Hawks should contend for a playoff spot most of the season if for no other reason than the East from the middle-down is just not good. The most glaring stat on this team early is that their getting to the FT line almost 30% of their offensive possessions, which is 50% more than last season. Over the course of a game, with 80 or so shot attempts, that’s going to add up. Combine with the third least fouls committed per game, and they’re going to contend most nights.
12. Cleveland – With a healthy Irving and Varejao back after the scary injury, this team is simply infinitely better than their public perception. Add in an Andrew Bynum that seem to want to play basketball, and this is a potential playoff team. They’re not going to do it with flash, shooting a league worst 38% from the floor early, but the scoring defense has gone from one that allowed over 101 points per game to one that’s second in the NBA only allowing 91 this season. If Waiters matures into a team player, the chemistry stays right, they’ll improve markedly from their 24 win season.
13. Lakers – Of course people are going to dismiss them without Kobe Bryant, and perhaps too much. The Howard experiment failed badly, but this may be a clear case of addition by subtraction. They’re only allowing 9 offensive rebounds per game, but that may be a bit deceiving since their opponents are shooting almost 47% from the floor. They’re still reasonably well-coached and with little or no expectations, they can simply play basketball. Those can be the dangerous types of teams.
14. Golden State – Iguodala gives them instant credibility, even at the expense of Jack and Landry. It’s a question of depth at least until Barnes returns, but this was a 47 win team last season and few East of the Mississippi know who they are. Most that do know Golden State, or think they do, don’t know that they were in the top five last season in Opponents Shooting percentage, and are showing slight signs of even bettering that number early this season. They’re averaging 6 blocks a game, but allowing over 100 points a night as well. Playing slightly more in control, they’ll beat anyone given the chance.
15. Orlando – Yes, because of Victor Oladip and Tobias Harris. At any level of basketball a Top PG can elevate everyone, and Oladipo should be a Rookie of the Year Candidate all season, and there may not be a contender. What you really have to like early is that they’re 7th in defensive efficiency which is up 20 spots over last years’ season ending spot. With Harkness and Vucevi, they’ve got a young and talented nucleus, and a great fan base. They’re not getting enough assists per game to sustain it, but until opponents start taking them seriously they’re going to be in and win some games.
16. Memphis – They’d be higher if they weren’t off such a great season with greater expectations. Last year they perhaps took teams by surprise, but opponents will bring the Grizzlies they’re “A” game most nights this season. Winning 56 games again might be a stretch. I’m always skeptical with a coaching change is made after such a great season, and Joerger is doing it with Hollins’ players, which always creates confusion early. Talent-wise, they’re fine. Cohesion remains to be seen. Playing in the Western Conference is simply a big negative.
17. Portland – Were it not for the Aldridge trade rumors, I might put the Blazers higher on a list of team I like to back. Again, chemistry and short-term thinking could cause big inconsistencies. However, Lilllard and Batum are enough to keep them in most games, it’s their depth that concerns me. When McCollum gets back, this team will immediately be upgraded to the Top Ten. They already a Top 5 team in assists per game, and that will only get better, and they’ve almost always been a team that doesn’t put opponents at the line too often. Just not a team that’s going to beat themselves too often.
18. Detroit – With Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings, they’ve certainly got the talent to compete night in and night out, but I have to question the discipline as well as Cheeks. It’s one of those “show me” first things. This will be a streaky team, not unlike Smith’s old team, the Hawks. They may do well at home and struggle on the road, but a team capable of beating anyone. They’ll score a lot more, and already have as compared to 94 points per game last season. They key will be if Drummond and Monroe are content just to rebound, and some bench help.
19. Denver – This is one of those early value teams, in my opinion, simply because Gallinari will miss the start of the season. This is one of those “see Orlando” teams, because anytime you can put Ty Lawson and Randy Foye on the floor, you’ve got a chance to win. And in a seven foot center in McGee, the the Nuggets will be competitive, especially at home in the thin air. Known more as an offensive team, Denver finished in the top half of the league last year in opponents FG percentage, and are showing signs of actually improving through this years’ preseason and a couple of regular season games. This is a team that without Iguodala people will write off too quickly.
20. New Orleans – I think actually taking a team named the Pelicans seriously is going to he hard for some to wrap their head around, but I’m a believer that Davis is a difference maker every night. They’ve got an All-Stat PG in Holiday and added Tyreke Evans, and if Eric Gordon doesn’t get hurt, they’ll easily eclipse last seasons’ 27 wins. New Orleans was in the bottom third of the league in assists per game last season, but if they can develop the on-court chemistry they’re certainly light years better than the public perception is.
21.N.Y Knicks – This will surprise people, but the Knicks simply being from New York and public, are simply going to be over valued in most situations, especially at home. Not sure Melo really wants Bargnani to have the ball, or anyone else for that matter. Stoudamire is always a health rish, and just too many plder players with nothing really to play for other than a check. Improving on a 54 win season is just something I don’t see, even in the East. As you’d expect they were dead last in assists per game last season, and those things don’t change overnight or with the same cast of characters.
22. Utah – With Jefferson and Millsap gone, I suspect many bettors and fortune tellers may not take this team very seriously. I’ve always like Hayward, and when Trey Burke gets back, AND if Favors can handle sharing the ball, the Jazz will competitive more than some might think. That’s especially true at home where they’ve got a huge support system/fan base. I’ll question their ability to play team defense for extended periods of time, so it won’t be pretty in Utah. They should struggle a bit early, but with the youth they’ve committed to that’s expected.
23. Philadelphia – The 76ers could easily be higher on this list based on recent performance, but let’s not get carried away or over react. What concerns me short term is that they didn’t hire a coach until mid-August, and what exactly had Brown done for you. But, with San Antonio blood, he does know the formula. With Noel now expected to sit out the whole season, people are going to under value this team, since they’re listed as “Wiggins Contenders”. If Carter-Williams can learn on the fly ad Brown can get a disciplined team, they’ll be better than advertised. In my opinion, this is a team that cannot be worse than the 44% FG shooting team they were last season. Early on, they’re not getting to the line nearly enough and relying on shooting 51%, which will clearly regress. But, this is a dangerous team to bet against.
24. Phoenix – Any team playing for the future is also tough to ignore from a betting angle. They’ll be underdogs simply based on early perceptions after trading Gortant and stock-piling draft picks. I’ve got a ton of respect for Hornacek, and with Bledsoe and Dragic on the court at the same time they could score some points. Last season they were the 25th ranked team in points allowed, and that’s not hard to improve on. With Goodwin and Plumlee and plenty of interior size, I think they have a chance to actually improve on their 25 win season.
26. Charlotte – Things couldn’t get much lower for the Bobcats and their expectations, so we cannot put them at the bottom. Jefferson should help them score more, but it’s not just scoring they needed. They allowed opponents to shoot a league-worst 52% against them last season, and Jefferson simply isn’t going to help that, and he’s already missed time with an ankle injury. Cody Zeller will continue to see limited minutes, and Kemba Walker simply cannot carry a team. Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t ready, so this team is simply going to struggle to find it’s identity, making them tough to get behind.
27. Milwaukee – A new coach with Larry Drew taking over and no more Jennings or Ellis, which might be a good thing because there’s only one basketball. Reddick is gone as well, so where is the scoring going to come from. Certainly they can’t depend on an 18 year old kid from Greece and Brandon Knight. I can see them having their nights, but not sure where the defense comes from. Last year they were among the league leaders in three point shot attempts per game, and this pre-season and early regular season they’re near the bottom, so a complete overhaul and style of play makes them awful tough to gauge. Strictly situational plays.
28. Toronto – Perhaps they only advantage they have is teams have to go through Customs to play them at home. When the entire outcome appears predicated on Gay getting back to where he was and Valanciunas is your 20 year old center, there’s simply not much room for error. And with only 16 assists per game in the young season, that would seem to be being borne out. Even last season, they were in the middle of the pack in that category. They’re too young to be taken seriously but don’t know it yet. The talent, in my opinion, is just not there.
29. Washington – Until Wall AND Beal can prove they can stay healthy, betting on Washington can be an iffy proposition. Gortant will certainly help the cause, but this is a team that can easily get thrown out of sync with such a young and explosive backcourt. The depth isn’t there, so they’ll struggle against teams that want to push the pace. Fortunately for them there are more of those teams in the West. And they’re just not big enough to compete with the bigger and more methodical teams. Great play against bad teams and good teams in bad situations. Perhaps a slight improvement over last years’ 29 wins, but mostly due to lack of competition. See Boston. They’re still turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and were 24th in the league last year. Unless and until that changes, they fall into the category of having to play a perfect game in order to win.
30. Boston – Seems to be everyone’s choice to be at or near the bottom, but they’re still the Celtics and at home could scare some people. Brad Stevens will have a two year pass in Boston as far as expectations go, so exceeding them won’t be hard. Early on, they’re already a league-worst in assists per game, and if and when Rondo either comes back or gets traded, that’s not going to change. He could co-exist on a team that just needed him to distribute, but they will miss his defense. They are dead last by a landslide early in assist to turnover ratio at .683. By comparison last season they were at 1.51. That spells Wiggins.