Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

BASKETBALL's MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS...

NBA
Thread Starter BASKETBALL's MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS...
vegas-runner
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 7922
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Good Morning Gentlemen, well with today's smaller board and the fact that I already have tomorrow's board power-rated, it gives me an opportunity to discuss something with all of you guys that I have been meaning to for a while now and my clients will understand perfectly because its something that they have not already witnessed a lot of, but I keep repeating over and over...Yesterday's games offered me the perfect opportunity to write about this topic so here we go...

When I first began betting games for other people I got the opportunity to go to the offices where these so called "steam" moves were capped and sent out from for a few of the outfits...and one in particular that I later went to almost exculsively move for had the walls covered with all kind of facts, trends, %'s, numbers...and as I told you before, I didn't realize until that time just how little I knew about this racket...so to be honest, I never even paid them any mind because I wasn't capping the games and I hadn't become freindly enough just yet to ask questions...eventually I got to move inside more so I was surrounded by these freaking things every single day for years and although they changed, the were about the same things...and here is a few of the things that I remember to this day...

The one sign was "NFL & NCAAFB PROBABE OUTCOMES" and we all pretty much know what was listed because as bettors we hear it all the time...the most probablle number for a final score is "3"...and then we all know that 7, 6, 4, 10 are all key numbers and we want to base our wagers with that in mind every time because again...bottom line, its a numbers game...so without thinking it should become an automatic reflex that if you are about to place a bet and the number is 3...if you are taking the dog, buy it to 3.5 and if you are taking the fav, buy it down to 2.5...that is obvious and should ALWAYS be done...and I know that many will argue that in football and basketball laying -120 makes it harder because now its 12 to 10 which means that you have to hit a higher win % to make any money and that win% is actually right at about 54.5% and if you can hit 60% of your wagers, you can actually lay up to -150 and break even, so as long as you are straight with yourself, you should never have a problem knowing what your limit should be...thats all True...but consider that you are not going to be laying -120 on every single basketball and football wager you make, and it will Ultimately only be a handful of games that you will need to do this for because its not as if the only wager you make each day are on key numbers....so now that we got that out of the way...lets move on the the Topic at hand...

The next sign that I always saw and stuck in my head was, "NBA & NCAABB PROBABLE OUTCOMES"....and although I do not have the exact figures in front of me, but they aren't difficult to track down and truth is, after so many years of results I have just become a robot about it and do it almost instantly...now since in another few weeks we will have nothing but basketball garnering all the attention and the sport which we will all try to continue making money wagering on, I think that we should all be aware of this...The most IMPORTANT & KEY NUMBERS in Basketball are 6,5,4,3...and I believe its even in that sequence which really isn't what is important...now if we just stop and take a look at yesterday's basketball results, here is what we will find...

1 out of the 3 NBA Games fell on these Key Numbers....and "11" of Last Night's NCAABB Games fell on those numbers..."11" and it wasn't even a very big board at all...so you really need to always take that into consideration when you are wagering on baskets because its not my opinion, Its Fact....that games will end on these numbers more than any other, and therefore when the point-spread is on these numbers, we need to take that into account and based on our results overall as far as wagering is concerned, we can't be stubborn and think..."hey, if they are going to cover, then they are going to cover so why lay the -120"...As much as we all like to try and take the gamble out of sports betting and I believe that with discipline and money management, you can do so...we can not overlook the fact that Sports Wagering is a form of Gambling...and any form of gambling has a direct relation to the laws of probability...

The main difference between what we do and what a crap shooter does is that is that they are involved in a game where random selections will definately prevail and the true odds are represented accordingly over the "long run"...but with sports wagering, by adding one more dimension to the equation....handicapping we each have the ability to manipulate those true odds...but that is another topic all together that I hope to cover one day...

And I almost forgot...the one other sign on the wall that interested me the most and I feel that I should share this with you because its something you can all do and really improve your capping when baseball comes around...because it is by far a game that numbers cause it to be one of the most beatable...is a sign which had the exact Average of Runs Scored in each Ball Park Over the Last 2 Seasons...and I always make sure that I create one in March and think that its a great idea if you slowly do the same...I also have a great topic that I want to cover for the upcoming NFL Games this weekend and will try to do so after I am finished capping and Uploading tonight's plays for my clients and this one will blow your mind, because in all my years...if I hadn't heard it straight from a sportbook sup who knows his shit...I would have never thought that the players edge can be so huge...Thanks again, VR

trenchcoatmafia
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 11918
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor
vegas-runner:

Good Morning Gentlemen, well with today's smaller board and the fact that I already have tomorrow's board power-rated, it gives me an opportunity to discuss something with all of you guys that I have been meaning to for a while now and my clients will understand perfectly because its something that they have not already witnessed a lot of, but I keep repeating over and over...Yesterday's games offered me the perfect opportunity to write about this topic so here we go...

When I first began betting games for other people I got the opportunity to go to the offices where these so called "steam" moves were capped and sent out from for a few of the outfits...and one in particular that I later went to almost exculsively move for had the walls covered with all kind of facts, trends, %'s, numbers...and as I told you before, I didn't realize until that time just how little I knew about this racket...so to be honest, I never even paid them any mind because I wasn't capping the games and I hadn't become freindly enough just yet to ask questions...eventually I got to move inside more so I was surrounded by these freaking things every single day for years and although they changed, the were about the same things...and here is a few of the things that I remember to this day...

The one sign was "NFL & NCAAFB PROBABE OUTCOMES" and we all pretty much know what was listed because as bettors we hear it all the time...the most probablle number for a final score is "3"...and then we all know that 7, 6, 4, 10 are all key numbers and we want to base our wagers with that in mind every time because again...bottom line, its a numbers game...so without thinking it should become an automatic reflex that if you are about to place a bet and the number is 3...if you are taking the dog, buy it to 3.5 and if you are taking the fav, buy it down to 2.5...that is obvious and should ALWAYS be done...and I know that many will argue that in football and basketball laying -120 makes it harder because now its 12 to 10 which means that you have to hit a higher win % to make any money and that win% is actually right at about 54.5% and if you can hit 60% of your wagers, you can actually lay up to -150 and break even, so as long as you are straight with yourself, you should never have a problem knowing what your limit should be...thats all True...but consider that you are not going to be laying -120 on every single basketball and football wager you make, and it will Ultimately only be a handful of games that you will need to do this for because its not as if the only wager you make each day are on key numbers....so now that we got that out of the way...lets move on the the Topic at hand...

The next sign that I always saw and stuck in my head was, "NBA & NCAABB PROBABLE OUTCOMES"....and although I do not have the exact figures in front of me, but they aren't difficult to track down and truth is, after so many years of results I have just become a robot about it and do it almost instantly...now since in another few weeks we will have nothing but basketball garnering all the attention and the sport which we will all try to continue making money wagering on, I think that we should all be aware of this...The most IMPORTANT & KEY NUMBERS in Basketball are 6,5,4,3...and I believe its even in that sequence which really isn't what is important...now if we just stop and take a look at yesterday's basketball results, here is what we will find...

1 out of the 3 NBA Games fell on these Key Numbers....and "11" of Last Night's NCAABB Games fell on those numbers..."11" and it wasn't even a very big board at all...so you really need to always take that into consideration when you are wagering on baskets because its not my opinion, Its Fact....that games will end on these numbers more than any other, and therefore when the point-spread is on these numbers, we need to take that into account and based on our results overall as far as wagering is concerned, we can't be stubborn and think..."hey, if they are going to cover, then they are going to cover so why lay the -120"...As much as we all like to try and take the gamble out of sports betting and I believe that with discipline and money management, you can do so...we can not overlook the fact that Sports Wagering is a form of Gambling...and any form of gambling has a direct relation to the laws of probability...

The main difference between what we do and what a crap shooter does is that is that they are involved in a game where random selections will definately prevail and the true odds are represented accordingly over the "long run"...but with sports wagering, by adding one more dimension to the equation....handicapping we each have the ability to manipulate those true odds...but that is another topic all together that I hope to cover one day...

And I almost forgot...the one other sign on the wall that interested me the most and I feel that I should share this with you because its something you can all do and really improve your capping when baseball comes around...because it is by far a game that numbers cause it to be one of the most beatable...is a sign which had the exact Average of Runs Scored in each Ball Park Over the Last 2 Seasons...and I always make sure that I create one in March and think that its a great idea if you slowly do the same...I also have a great topic that I want to cover for the upcoming NFL Games this weekend and will try to do so after I am finished capping and Uploading tonight's plays for my clients and this one will blow your mind, because in all my years...if I hadn't heard it straight from a sportbook sup who knows his shit...I would have never thought that the players edge can be so huge...Thanks again, VR

GOOD INFO MY BROTHER..... CONTINUED SUCCESS AN GOOD LUCK TODAY..............HOPE UR HOLIDAYS WERE GOOD....
MarkO
Joined: 11/23/2006
Posts: 2140
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor
VR, is your point about BB key numbers the same as FB, saying buy a half accordingly on 6 5 4 3 in a hoops play?  Thanks in advance.
"If I managed the Cubs, I would be an alcoholic"..Whitey Herzog Best Advice I Ever Got: ..."and don't forget they are 5-2 ATS in night games on astro turf in 2nd week in November in non-confrence away games vs. a left handed QB in the last 40 years when the line is between -5 and 5 coming vs a ranked opponent coming off a SU win as a dog and the total is over 36.5 when there was a NBA game played the night before and the temperature is between 40-70 degrees."
Ruckus
Joined: 10/06/2006
Posts: 7370
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor
ACE THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHT
Ruckus ~Rather be a has-been then a never-was~ ~~~If you want to bet on a being.... bet on a smart and honest one .....a horse~~~
jc8508
Joined: 07/05/2007
Posts: 116
College Recruit
Not Ranked
I just have to say thanks for all the awesome articles you write and info i come on here everyday and i really look forward to what you have to say thanks again and good luck with everything you do
vegas-runner
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 7922
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

MarkO:
VR, is your point about BB key numbers the same as FB, saying buy a half accordingly on 6 5 4 3 in a hoops play?  Thanks in advance.

 

Yes Sir...if you remember I believe a week back I touched upon just that...which is to always try and get yourself to where a whole number will help you because Ultimately, games may cash or trash on Half Points...but they don't end there...so when you have a game you like and all you can find is -6.5, you need to automatically take it to -6...now what I am refering to about the whole numbers  and I'll do it quickly... if you are getting +6, you don't neccessarily need to take it to 6.5 because in that instance, a win only becomes a push and not a loss...and if you don't wager on a lot of plays like I do, and lack of volume makes your win% that much more influential in your overall success or failure, then you may not want to lay the -120 in those cases and I don't always have my clients do so because I don't know each of their bankrolls...but for me, I do it EVERY TIME...and its done well for me so I won't change no matter what....Good Luck, VR

winone
Joined: 04/25/2007
Posts: 557
All American
Not Ranked
In football would you continue to buy on and off 3 if you are laying -130 as most locals charge?
Nothin Less Than Success!
vegas-runner
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 7922
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

winone:
In football would you continue to buy on and off 3 if you are laying -130 as most locals charge?

 

That really would come down to what I truely believe is my edge in this game and more importantly...exactly how my season is going and what I can estimate my win % to be...here is the reason...for you to be able to make any profit in the long run, which is all you really should worry yourself with when you are faced with these type of dilema's because short term gain and loss will never truely measure what you should be able to make as a ROI for your particular wager...with that said, you would need to Win 57% of all those wagers that you are willing to lay -130 on in order to make an Overall Profit....so if you feel that you will win 57 of every 100 bets that you make when you buy on or off the 3, then just like a robot...do it everytime and never play Monday Morning Quarterback because that will have you losing perspective of exactly what it is you are trying to accomplish...Turn a Profit...

The most important thing though that you need to remember and can not overlook....is that we are only refering to those Wagers that you are confronted with Laying -130...those are the ones that I am refering to, which you need to hit 57% of...all your other one's will still be at 53% and if you really want to lower that even further...take advantage of the opportunity to grab the Money Line on certain occasions rather than grabbing, say...+1.5...because remember....if you can lay only 10 to win 10 on your bets...you would break even with a 50% win mark, so if you can get even as low as +105 to +110...you can do some serious damage over time if you do your homework, because those opps present themselves all the time, Good luck and Thanks, VR

dtm4872
Joined: 01/01/2008
Posts: 33
Waterboy
Not Ranked
Great info.  I have been on sports interaction and bodog before that.  They do not let you change the lines like that.  What sites let you do that? 
needham
Joined: 10/23/2007
Posts: 2358
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor
basketball examples for me last night..............arkansas and pacific both landed on 6 ...2 loses for me (horrible night overall) as i had -6.5.....
I wish you the best but I lost track of forum posters who tried going pro and lasted less than Marco having sex..... Pump Pump uhhhhhhhh....... Had to sig line it JD- it is just TOO funny.
Rate This
  • 16 replies
  • 1 subscriber
  • Postedover 6 years ago