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November 13th Daily Message:

The NBA season continued yesterday and we are coming from a poor 1-4 day. So, today is time to bounce back and get back into the winning days. In just two weeks, we have already a profit of +26.90 units on 3-4-5 Money Management System! I'm also hitting around 57% of my NBA Plays!

So, for today, we have 10 games on the NBA card. I'll be also recapping NFL Week 10 in order to bounce back next week.

By the way, during the following two days, I have a 20% discount promo on my 7 days and 30 days Packages. It's a great opportunity to follow me for the following week/month at an excellent price!

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

Yesterday's Recap:

NBA - 501 Washington Wizards @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Line: 192 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***

Washington is coming from their fifth loss in five games against Indiana, but where for the second straight game, their starting lineup was productive. All their starters scored double digit points, while A.J. Price was excellent on the PG position with 12 points, 14 assists and zero turnovers! There are two curious facts about the Wizards: they have little volume of their shots near the basket and so, they aren't aggressive, as they attempt just 22.8 shots at the rim per game plus they rank last in FT attempts with 14.6 per game! That was clear with their 4-5 FG at the rim and 5-7 FT on this game against the Pacers. On the other side, their ball movement is excellent, as they dished 26 assists, while shooting 12-25 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-24 3pts on 15 assisted FG made! Washington is a good team on spot ups, off screens and cuts, while showing a great perimeter offense, as well a respectable 1.06 PPP (points per possession) on pick and rolls!

The Wizards will now play in Charlotte, on a good matchup for them. The Bobcats use a high pressure defense that is quite susceptible to get exposed against teams with good ball movement! That's why they are allowing 52% FG from 16-23 feet and 43.7% from 3pts, while being dead last in the league in these two stats! Even though Washington was poor on offensive rates, they also demonstrate good ball movement, as they had 26, 20, 25, 23 and 26 assists on their five games, while having a very good 69.22% assist rate! So, with Washington passing well the ball and exposing Charlotte's high pressure defense, the Wizards have an excellent matchup in here to have a great offensive game.

The Bobcats offense is based on their PG's and their ability in attacking the rim and grabbing offensive rebounds. Their outside shooting is very inconsistent and even though they have a high volume on shots taken in the paint, they are dead last in FG% at the rim. In fact, the Bobcats shot 17-30 FG on their last game against Dallas, but they had a big edge in offensive rebounds by grabbing 21! Charlotte is also quite good on pick and roll ball handler by being #6 in the league with 0.86 PPP, however Washington's defense on this kind of plays is very good (#3) by allowing just 0.59 PPP! Still, I believe the Bobcats won't be completely shutdown by the Wizards defense, as they aren't good enough to handle an in-form Kemba Walker, who has been in excellent form at the start of the season.

I believe both teams will at least have a quite decent offensive game tonight, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

***ADDED PLAY***

As I've said, I believe Washington has an excellent matchup tonight to have a great offensive night, while they had some tools to somewhat limit Charlotte's offense as well by being a good pick and roll ball handler defense, besides being also #6 on defensive rebounding and so, they won't allow the Bobcats to grab a lot of offensive rebounds, one of the main strengths. Therefore, I'll be taking Washington in here as well on a Double Dime Play! Split the wager!

NOTE: I had planned to take Washington in here since last night when I sent the over play, but I delayed the release of this play in order to get extra value on the line.

Pick: 1 unit on 501 Washington Wizards ML @ +115 / 2.15 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units on 501 Washington Wizards (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Washington 76 Charlotte 92

NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 3 points

Brooklyn is coming from two easy blowout wins over Orlando, something that is giving them the false perception that they are a top team, when they are indeed very far from that. Even on those two easy wins, Brooklyn's ball movement was quite poor, as even though they had an easy task on offense, the Nets had just 21 and 20 assists against Orlando and they are just #24 in the league in A/TO ratio with 1.26, something weird when they have two playmakers on the starting lineup in Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

The truth is that the Nets are still trying to find a identity to the team and a proper game plan. I know that they easily crushed Orlando on their last game, but they shot 5-7 FG at the rim against an undersized team like the Magic, a reason for concern as the Nets with a super size edge should simply pound Orlando down low and the truth is that Brooklyn was an outside shooting team with 7-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-24 3pts! They will be facing a Cavaliers, whose only defensive struggle is defending at the rim (worst in the league), but as I've said, the Nets don't take advantage of these edges, with just 21.5 FGA per game at the rim (#3 lowest volume on the league). Also with Deron Williams running the show, it was expected for the Nets to be a top offensive team in running pick and rolls, but the truth is that they are the third worst team in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays, a clear sign for their lack of identity on offense!

They will now face Cleveland, who has lost their last three games, but they are coming from a game where they were competitive at Oklahoma City until the end of the 3rd quarter, where the score was at 73-76. We know that Cleveland has a good pick and roll game due to Kyrie Irving and they are #9 on pick and roll ball handler with 0.82 PPP and with Irving's good vision, the Cavs are also a great spot up team by being #4 on the league with 1.1 PPP! This style of the Cavs offense gives them a good matchup against Brooklyn.

I don't think Deron Williams is a good defender in chasing players on pick and rolls, while Brook Lopez is just too slow, he doesn't have a good foot speed to move properly and not surprisingly, the Nets are just #22 on defending spot up plays. However, on my ranks, I have Brooklyn as #1 on the league in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, something kind of odd! They are just allowing 0.51 PPP on these plays. But when you look at their previous opponents, you realize why the Nets are looking so impressive on defending this kind of plays:

TOR #26 0.62 PPP

MIN #11 0.79 PPP (Brooklyn lost)

MIA #8 0.835 PPP (Brooklyn lost)

ORL #30 0.54 PPP

So, in five games (they faced Orlando twice), three of them were against teams who are ranked #26 and #30 on pick and roll ball handler plays! No wonder Brooklyn is ranked #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense right now! After today's game, I'm sure the Nets won't be #1 on the league on defending this kind of plays, while their offense isn't consistent enough for them to be favored by six points on this game against Cleveland. I believe the Cavaliers will make this game quite competitive and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Cleveland Cavaliers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Cleveland 101 Brooklyn 114

NBA - 509 Portland Trailblazers @ 510 Sacramento Kings

I like Portland's spot tonight to have a strong start on this game. They had a very poor start of the game against Atlanta, with a lot of turnovers that led to easy transition points to the Hawks. However, Portland's defense was much better on the second half without committing turnovers and Atlanta struggled at the end, with the Blazers actually leading the game at a certain time of the 4th quarter. At the end, Atlanta won the game, but Portland left the game with a good feeling and I expect them to enter the game tonight with some confidence.

The only reason why I'm taking Portland on the first half and not on full time is because of their possible poor physical spot for this contest. The Blazers have a decent starting lineup that is capable of going toe-to-toe against most NBA team, but as soon as the key players go to the bench to rest, they struggle. This was exactly what happened on their home game against San Antonio, where Wesley Matthews ended the game with +14 on +/- team points, J.J Hickson +15 and LeMarcus Aldridge +19!

Sacramento may not have DeMarcus Cousins for tonight due to a suspension, but I know that the Kings offense is struggling big time with or without Cousins. Sacramento's offensive game without Cousins is almost exclusively perimeter-based and they don't have a good ball movements, something that leads to a poor perimeter shooting. Portland has been good on their post up game so far with LeMarcus Aldrdige and J.J. Hickson and with Sacramento possibly not having DeMarcus Cousins on court, they will struggle big time on this area. Sacramento will have some edge on transition, but Portland has a good mindset and a good matchup on this game, therefore I'll be taking the Blazers in here on a first half moneyline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Portland Trailblazers HALFTIME ML @ +115 / 2.15 on 5Dimes

HalfTime Score: Portland 46 Sacramento 42

NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: 203 points

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

San Antonio is coming from a win against Portland, where they really pushed the game to be a fast paced one, as Gregg Popovich knew that Portland had no depth and with their starters playing heavy minutes on a fast paced game, they would be tired down the stretch. The truth is that on the last minutes of the game, we saw the Spurs bench dominating with Gary Neal, Danny Green and Nando De Colo being amazingly red hot, while Tiago Splitter was the team's big man on the court, with Tim Duncan on the bench. San Antonio shot 11-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-18 3pts, while they were amazing on pick and roll ball handler, cuts and transition plays.

San Antonio isn't being a top defensive rebounding team, as they are just grabbing 72.6% of the rebounds on their own board, while allowing their opponents to easily score in offensive rebound plays with 1.19 PPP (points per possession allowed)! They will be facing a Lakers team that is #1 on the league on offensive rebound rate with 35.4%, so they will have a considerable edge over the Spurs in here. San Antonio's game plan for tonight will be similar to the one they had in Portland, as the Lakers have no depth on the bench, so the Spurs will speed up the pace in order to burn out the Lakers' starting lineup and then outplay them with their superior depth, besides avoiding playing a half court game against a team that has a clear size and rebounding edge like the Lakers have over them.

On these two games without Mike Brown, the Lakers barely had pick and roll ball handler plays with just 7.0 and 4.6% volume! The team without Steve Nash simply doesn't have this ability and the Lakers aren't messing around. Their offense is now resumed to post ups (+20% volume), spot ups (+20% volume), offensive rebounds (+10% volume) and transitions (+10% volume). On their last game against the Kings, who were playing without the suspended DeMarcus Cousins, the Lakers frontcourt dominated with Dwight Howard scoring 23 points and grabbing 18 rebounds, while Pau Gasol scored 18 points on a 50% shooting night. The Lakers showed a better offensive flow, even though their second unit was terrible as usual, with only Jordan Hill looking like a legit NBA player.

The Lakers are #4 in the league on PPP on post up plays and even though the Spurs have Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, they will struggle on the PF position, especially on defending Pau Gasol. San Antonio may be #9 in the league in defending post up plays, but look at the teams they have faced:

New Orleans - 0.79 PPP (without enough volume to be classified)

Oklahoma City - 0.83 PPP #12

Utah - 0.74 PPP #24

Indiana - 0.90 PPP #6

LA Clippers 0.94 #3

Sacramento 0.72 #25

Portland 0.87 #7

San Antonio faced three teams that are currently on the top 10 of post ups efficiency and in two of those three games they allowed 106 and 109 points! On the other hand, the Lakers' defense looked to be improved over the last four games, but I don't believe in that, as they faced Detroit, Utah, Golden State and Sacramento, four teams who are currently ranked #26, #11, #25 and #29 on my offensive rating ranking. Of course the Lakers had good defensive performances in those games, but they faced three of the worst offenses in the league! Now against a Spurs' offense that is #2 on pick and roll ball handler, #5 on post ups, #7 on pick and roll roll man, #7 on spot ups, #4 on off screens, #8 on cuts and #16 on transitions, I believe the Lakers will struggle on defense tonight, especially on defending pick and roll ball handler and transition plays, as the Lakers' defense is just ranked #28 and #23 in defending these two kind of plays respectively. This is mostly due to the fact that Dwight Howard is still far from being at 100%, something that is making him be very slow on rotations and this will surely be exploited by Gregg Popovich tonight.

San Antonio will torch the Lakers tonight with pick and rolls via their speedy guards and I don't believe the Lakers' defense will be able to limit them on a fast paced game. On the other hand, the Lakers will have a clear frontcourt edge, with a clear edge on offensive rebounding and I also expect them to have a good offensive game. Therefore, I came up with a totals line of 203 points in here, high enough for me to take the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: San Antonio 84 LA Lakers 82

NBA 11/13 Advanced Stats Numbers:

Washington at Charlotte						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
WAS	27	12	22	15	76	90.80	81.55	0.33	14.77	32.73	25.00
CHAR	23	29	18	22	92		104.08	0.42	12.37	28.89	34.62


New York at Orlando						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NY	27	22	28	22	99	88.95	112.29	0.54	9.20	15.38	9.52
ORL	23	30	23	13	89		99.17	0.53	19.52	26.47	13.33


Toronto at Indiana						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
TOR	29	17	23	5	74	81.77	89.26	0.40	14.84	18.60	22.22
IND	21	15	22	14	72		89.29	0.35	12.24	27.45	25.33


Cleveland at Brooklyn						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CLE	30	12	33	26	101	89.32	111.40	0.45	10.87	37.21	25.29
BK	29	35	21	29	114		129.58	0.58	12.54	38.71	32.47


Portland at Sacramento						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
POR	25	21	28	29	103	84.50	122.37	0.58	17.23	32.35	26.39
SAC	18	24	16	28	86		101.38	0.47	13.22	23.26	16.88


San Antonio at L.A. Lakers						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SA	18	20	22	24	84	86.17	95.27	0.43	7.78	23.91	7.78
LAL	24	19	16	23	82		97.42	0.46	16.89	32.50	18.92

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