Olympic Games 08/12 Andre Gomes Men's Basketball Final Day

This game will be a rematch from a group stage game where Russia upset Spain by 77-74. While analyzing that game, I was surprised by the slow pace of the game, as according to my numbers, that game had the second slowest pace of the entire tournament, only faster than a game between the poor teams of Nigeria and Tunisia. Still, that game ended with 151 points due to a great offensive efficiency from both teams, especially from Russia. 

Russia's defense has been terrific, as they are currently holding their opponents to just 39.5% overall, while in the quarter finals they held Lithuania to just 37% FG, 3 fast break points and 24 points in the paint. Not only they close out on the perimeter, as they also like to swarm to the ball when it gets below the FT line. On the other side, Spain's inconsistency is mostly due to their backcourt, as in the frontcourt Pau Gasol has been dominating his opponents. Rudy Fernandez was injured in the last months prior to this competition and Juan Carlos Navarro is also battling some injuries, while Jose Manuel Calderon has been prone to disappearing in the games. Against France in the quarter finals, Spain shot 4-20 3pts, with Rudy 3-9 FG, Navarro 3-11 FG, Calderon 2-6 FG and Llull 3-7 FG. 

I expect this game to be played in the half court like the group stage game between these two teams. With both teams struggling to get shots, the current line of 152.5 points demands a great offensive efficiency to be achieved by both teams once again. The line opened at 148 points and that is my line, but the market is the pushing the line up, creating a lot of value on the Under in the process. 

In terms of spread, I had Spain -6 in the group stage game and they lost it outright, however Russia did some stuff in that game that I don't believe they will repeat today. Their PG Shved has been erratic lately and he was yanked by the Russian head coach in that game by playing just 7 minutes. And then what happened? His backup Ponkrashov played his best game ever in the NT with 6-8 FG 14 points and 11 assists! Russia isn't a good outside shooting team with 27-83 (32%) 3pts in all games excluding their game against Spain, where they shot 9-23 3pts. I've also already mentioned in the past that Russia isn't a good FT shooting team and they had just 61% FT against Lithuania (22-36 FT) and 66% FT throughout the whole tournament. However against Spain, they managed to hit 10-11 FT! Russia's best player Andrei Kirilenko shot just 2-8 FG against Spain, but all the Russian role players played brilliantly and because of that, Russia was able to defeat Spain. 

On the other side, no matter what Russia tries, Pau Gasol will dominate and he has already shown that in the first game by shooting 8-13 FG. Marc Gasol was outplayed by Mozgov in the first game, but he is coming from his best performance in the tournament so far against France so I expect a bounce back game from him. With a slightly better game from the Spanish guards, Spain will have enough edges to comfortably beat Russia today, as in the first game, Spain entered the game with a 20-2 lead and also had a 15-4 run at the start of the 4th quarter. We are talking about a 35-6 run! Spain has a lot more experience at this level and I expect them to get revenge over Russia today and have a very comfortable win today. I'm taking both Spain and the Under on this contest.