Olympic Games 08/12 Andre Gomes Men's Basketball Final Day

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Lithuania (+7,5) @  -112 / 1.893 on Pinnacle

We took Australia on the spread in their first two games and with success and so, we have a good read on their offense. They run well their plays, with a good pick n roll, they grab offensive rebounds and finalize them with points for a solid post game, despite for having any real star on their roster. They scored 50 points in the paint against Spain and this shows how efficient they can be. Australia also likes to score in transition and in their first two games, they scored 14 and 18 fast break points. Their only problem and the only reason why they scored just 71 and 70 points in those games was the fact that they cannot hit from the outside, as they shot 4-22 3pts vs Brazil and 4-24 3pts vs Spain, for a combined of 8-46 (17%) 3pts!!! I don't think this will happen today, especially against a team who isn't aggressive on defense and who doesn't close out well like China.

The Chinese team is coming from a clear loss against Russia, in a letdown spot after a big effort against Spain in their first game, where three of their starters played for more than 30 minutes. China needs their exterior game to be competitive, but they faced the second best defensive team in the tournament and it isn't easy to score against Russia. China didn't have the nice looks against Russia like they had against Spain and they ended up scoring just 16 points in the paint and committed the double of turnovers that they had committed against Spain. Today, they are on a bounce back spot and even though I like Australia's defense, they aren't clearly at the same level of Russia and so, China should have a decent offensive game today.

Therefore, I believe both teams have conditions to make an interesting offensive game today and so, I'll take the Over on this contest, as my projections give me enough value to take it in here.

Note: No writeup for this contest

As I've mentioned before, Argentina isn't a very athletic team, especially on the frontcourt with Delfino, Nocioni and Scola, not to mention they have little depth, so they struggle in keeping their consistency throughout the game. On the other hand, Nigeria is coming from a supreme humiliation against the United States, in a game where they could do very little, as the US team was incredible from the 3pts line. However, Nigeria will have on this contest a clear edge on athleticism and I also believe they will dominate the Argentinian team in the boards battle, allowing them to make this game closer than the lines are predicting. Therefore, I'll be taking Nigeria plus the points today.

This is a game between two teams who already know in which position they will end this group stage. No matter what happens today, Russia will win this group, while Australia will qualify in the fourth position. So, this will be a non-competitive game between two teams with no major motivation to win this game, but also without any kind of pressure to win and so, they will rotate more their teams, allowing the bench players to have more minutes than usual. 

Russia is coming from two very tough games in a row against Brazil and Spain, with the Russian team winning both games down the stretch, in very tight affairs. In their last game against Spain, Kirilenko played 36 minutes and Ponkrashov 38 minutes, with four of their players being on the court for more than 27 minutes. So, I really believe Russia will have a physical and psychological letdown on this contest after securing their group win on these two close contests.

On the other hand, Australia is coming from their best offensive game of the tournament against Great Britain, where they outscored the British team in the second half by 70-29, something that allowed the Australian coach to rotate the team in the fourth quarter of the game. Mills with 30 minutes played and Ingles with 32 minutes were the only players who played more than 30 minutes, so the Australian team should be fresh for today, especially when they are coming from games against Great Britain and China, in games very far from the competitive level Russia faced against Brazil and Spain. 

Australia already knows they will face the United States in the quarter finals and so, I expect them to make a big effort today, as this will be their last winnable game they'll have on this competition. The Australian offense has been improving game after game on this competition and after starting this tournament with 4-22 and 4-24 3pts, they shot 8-24 and 13-24 3pts in their last two games. They are also very good in creating fast break points with 14, 18, 13 and 27 fast break points scored in their games so far. With Russia lacking their normal focus on defense, I expect the Australian good effort for today to cause a lot of problems to Russia, in a clear letdown spot for them. I believe Australia will then make this game much more competitive than the lines are currently predicting and so, I'll take Australia in here. With both teams knowing already the place where they'll finish this group stage, I expect this game to be quite open and with both teams playing better offense than defense and so, I'll take the Over in here as well.

France is another team who pretty knows their final place in the group stage. Barring an Argentinian win over USA later today, France will be the 2nd on this group no matter what happens on this contest. So, I believe France will be without any kind of motivation for this contest and therefore Nigeria has a shot of making this contest competitive, in their last game on this competition, as barring a shocking loss from Lithuania against Tunisia by more than 12 points, Nigeria will be eliminated.