Interesting comment Lloyd as I am a victim of this misconception as well (in general, not in this game).
So do you think there is ever any value in getting the best of it, so to speak, with an adjusted price? I would assume there are cases were it is and cases were it isn't; therein lies the rub, picking the right spots.
Do you ever play 2nd-halves and if so, do you base it on what you are seeing, the size of the adjustment, both?
"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."
The Game Interesting comment Lloyd as I am a victim of this misconception as well (in general, not in this game). So do you think there is ever any value in getting the best of it, so to speak, with an adjusted price? I would assume there are cases were it is and cases were it isn't; therein lies the rub, picking the right spots. Do you ever play 2nd-halves and if so, do you base it on what you are seeing, the size of the adjustment, both?
If I ever play 2H, I usually just try to find and off market number that so is off market enough that it makes up for the juice and then some.
The best way to attack off numbers are in high profile games that bring in more rec bettors. A good example was last night. Pinny, Greek, and Cris all had the 2H total at 97.5. SIA had 99. I took U99 and obviously that did not work out. But if 97.5 +100 was the market value, and every half point in 2H NBA is worth 8 or 9 cents, then U99 should be worth -125. That more than covers the -110 you lay.
If you are looking at straight handicapping angles, home teams are more likely to create a return to the mean than road teams. I.E. is OKC was at home last night, it would have been more likely that they would have made a comeback. Also, games played on neutral courts are less likely to see teams pull away even further.
Especially in NBA which is such a game of runs, I have to think there would be some opportunities fading a team that has just gone on a large run, or a side of the total which was just hit hard. Then again, that would fit right into public perception so a lot of back testing would need to be done first.
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
Lloyd: Informative as always, thank you very much for the detailed response.
One quick follow up question, is every half-point in NBA worth 8 to 9 cents or specifically the 2H? The value assigned to each half-point is based upon a push chart?