Have you ever been to South Beach? At the right time of year it's like falling down a rabbit hole and waking up in Pornoland. It makes you feel like you've suddenly stepped into your Internet screen.
Oklahoma City can't compare. It's the country's sweaty taint. If you come from Oklahoma City, it is hard to resist the lure and avoid the distraction that is South Beach. Today's coaches simply can't exercise sufficient control over their players. I'm convinced the South Beach factor has a great deal to do with Miami winning over 94% of their home games this season, while managing to win only 59% of their games on the road.
Now they have an insurmountable 3-1 lead in the series, and they are playing at home., where they have won 100% this season vs. the Thunder. I calculate Miami to have a an 80% probability of winning straight up.
Before you get carried away, however, remember they need to win by at least 4 points to cover a line of -3.5. That reduces the probability of getting the money down to just 69%. Not bad, and certainly worth a bet, but not as good as 80%.
Getting the best of it tonight requires looking to the money line. The money line is shading the action to the benefit of the favorite. A line of -3.5 plus vig in the NBA is the long term equivalent of a line of -170. In other words, over he long term is should make no difference whether you bet a favorite at -3.5 (-110) or at -170, you should come out exactly the same in terms of money. The extra wins you get by not having to win by 4 points will be equal to the extra money you lose on the money line losers.
The money line in many places tonight, however, is only -160. That's the long term equivalent in basketball of getting a points line of only -3. Betting the money line tonight is like getting a half point from your bookmaker for free, and better yet it will increase your probability of winning by a full 11%. Even if you need to lay as much as -170, you should take the money line because long term it will be no different from a points line of -3.5, but in the single game tonight it will raise your probability of winning.
Now go get the money, which always helps to get the beach babes oir boys (whatever you favor).__________________
Rob Crowne: Best Bets | Free Picks | BlogsHandicapping at the next levelPick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
Great stuff, Rob! I just heard that OKC players were seen out and about. Heat players in OKC were rarely seen out of the hotel.
Don't Be Stupid
Discipline, young purks. Discipline.