w/OSU Graduation Commencement tomorrow 2 of my former Interns Graduating, & housing some of their family members (As one crazy evening finally slows down)Yet more endless, awesome memories from another Beautiful day in the Oregon Sunshinew/my beautiful wife, dozens of great people & unforgettable time Its’ a Great Day to be a Beaver & things are very, very good in Way-Out-West Country, as alwaysFrom Okie to South Beach2012 NBA FINALS Sun June 17, 2012 | 8:03 PM, EDT | ABC-TVAmericanAirlines Arena | Miami, Florida2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER2 MIAMI HEAT(NBA Finals tied, 1-1)Lots of ‘testimony’ regarding MIA Gm 2 turnaround is being propositioned Many should be thoroughly re-examined Especially verbiage regarding C Bosh & D Wade’s resurgence BOSH & WADE’s proficiency made all the difference for MIAThe fundamental part of this statement is TRUEYet breaking down Bosh & Wade Game 2 production increase Reveals a less than sterling impressionBOSH w/16 Points on 6-13 FG’s6 of those Points came on decent ball movement DUNKS (3-3)Thus, Bosh was 3-10 on the remaining FG’s, Two FG’s in Paint (2-6 FG) | One FG on J’s (1-4 FG)Really not THAT Efficient (from STARTER Minutes)WADE had FEWER Pts in Paint (Just 1-4 FG in Gm 2 | 2-5 in Gm 1)Though was far better on J’s (7-14 FG)This is simply NOT the texture of a ‘More Aggressive’ WadeHowever, OKC’s HARDEN returned to a HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE In a Losing Cause, Harden got to the PAINT & RIM Harden was 4-5 FG at Rim Harden was 2-3 from Deep Harden was 5-7 FT’s Harden was 3-6 on J’s
This IS the stylistics of a POTENT BENCH Player The factor that mucked it up for OKC?The hard-to-forecast the incomprehensible 2ND Slow OKC Start &Durant & Westbrook’s unexplainable foul issues The assumptions made about Durant & James?Well, both players are doing their thing as efficiently as ever(Even w/Durant inexplicably starting slowly again, w/fouls)Also, OKC Westbrook truly came close to same proficiency as Game 1(Still hitting low% of his 3’s | and 7-27 on J’s)Overall, Miami infused w/confidence at HOMEMakes the OKC side more problematic on it’s own Yet, truth is OKC HASN’T BEEN OUTSCORED ANY QTRS OTHER than 1ST QTR OF EACH GAME (MIA +17 in 1ST Q’s)If/when OKC finds a way to start games a LITTLE better(They’ve had an ‘Extra Day’ to work on it) OKC has proven to be so much deeper OKC also has Bench Production figured Out - again OKC +11 Avg Bench Points OKC +39 Avg Bench MinutesI like OVERS to continue, w/Pace staying so steady Game 1 Tempo: 89 Possessions Game 2 Tempo: 90 Possessions w/Teaser Over NudgeREALLY like OKC to keep w/in small handful of possessions 2 UNIT | 4½-POINT TEASER (-120 | BetUS)OKLAHOMA CITY +8½ MIAMIToOKLAHOMA CITYMIAMI | OVER 188
All the best, guys
Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? OverratedBEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"
Isn't the answer to OKC's slow starts that Harden is coming off the bench - which suggests OKC's depth is just on paper since Harden gets starter minutes and Collison and Perkins won't get much playing time with both teams going small and Ibaka the better shot blocker. To me Harden's numbers are just about Miami weighting the defense to Westbrook. Of course OKC gonna outscore Miami in quarters if Miami is up by 12-15 in the first quarter on the road, but OKC has led after only 1 quarter the whole series.
OKC Starter Struggles?I’d argue these inherent ‘struggles’
Are part of OKC’s Overall composition
Clearly, OKC doesn’t PETITION FOR 1ST Qtr deficienciesYet, 1ST-Q deficit sare so common w/OKC Playoff Game stylistics, It probably troubles Thunder less than we may presumeIn fact,OKC ‘WON’ ONLY 2 of LAST 12 PLAYOFF 1ST QTRS OKC Average 1ST-Q Deficit in these Gms: >4 PTS
OKC 1ST QTRS | L-12 GMSGAME 2 vs. MIA | MIA +12GAME 1 vs. MIA | MIA +7GAME 6 vs. SAS | SAS +14 GAME 5 at SAS | OKC +5GAME 4 vs. SAS | EVENGAME 3 vs. SAS | SAS +2GAME 2 at SAS | SAS +2GAME 1 at SAS | SAS +6GAME 5 vs. LAL | OKC +5GAME 4 at LAL | LAL +5GAME 3 at LAL | LAL +8GAME 2 vs. LAL | LAL +1
NBA FINALS | GAME 1Even w/Miami’s got off to Hot Start, &OKC BENCH scored ‘just’ 19 PtsONLY 2 OKC PLAYERS LOGGED 30+ MINMIA 5 PLAYERS w/at LEAST 33:39 MINI’d also challenge assessment of Harden’s Role; “Playing Starter Minutes” ALMOSTHarden plays an abundance of Minutes YET, HARDEN’S MIN ARE ACTUALLY DROPPING (slightly) AS THUNDER CONTINUE IN PLAYOFFS
HARDEN: 28:30 Avg Min in NBA FinalsHARDEN: 30:42 Avg Min in PlayoffsHARDEN: 31:23 Avg Min Regular Season
OKC’s HC Brooks explains OKC Harden/Bench PlanSimilar to Ginobili’s Role off San Antonio’s Bench In OKC’s Scheme as ‘cost-effective’ method to infuse OKC 2ND ShiftBridge Gaps in Offensive Limitations of OKC FrontlineFORCE Opponents into excessive minutes for Starting 2/3’s DOUBT we’ll see MORE Harden than 34-MAXDOUBT we'll see Harden in Starting Lineup anytime soonSince Harden’s EFFECTIVENESS Is thought to be tied to matchups Harden ForcesThis might be heavily compromised Inserting Harden into Starting ShiftCould be wrong – wouldn’t be the 1ST TimeCan’t wait to see what happens
Harden's numbers are just about MIA weighting 'D' to Westbrook
2ND Part of OKC's Harden 'Usage' points, Braktz
Since it's yet another essential OKC advantageTo having HARDEN dovetail into 2ND Shift OKC forces Teams into picking poison(s)1. Extending Starter Minutes to maintain leverage 2. OKC Spreads Court w/In-Out Game (w/Durant tying up enough Defensive attn)2012 NBA FINALSIN Westbrook 13-24 FG’s at RIMOUT Harden 3-4 Deep & 8-14 FG’s all Jumpers