Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

2012 NBA FINALS: 2 UNIT Teaser | 2 OKC at 2 MIA

NBA
Thread Starter 2012 NBA FINALS: 2 UNIT Teaser | 2 OKC at 2 MIA
Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6222
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor
Condensed write-up
w/OSU Graduation Commencement tomorrow 
2 of my former Interns Graduating, & housing some of their family members
(As one crazy evening finally slows down)
Yet more endless, awesome memories from another Beautiful day in the Oregon Sunshine
w/my beautiful wife, dozens of great people & unforgettable time
Its’ a Great Day to be a Beaver
& things are very, very good in Way-Out-West Country, as always

From Okie to South Beach

2012 NBA FINALS

Sun June 17, 2012 | 8:03 PM, EDT | ABC-TV
AmericanAirlines Arena | Miami, Florida

2 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
2 MIAMI HEAT

(NBA Finals tied, 1-1)

Lots of ‘testimony’ regarding MIA Gm 2 turnaround is being propositioned
Many should be thoroughly re-examined
Especially verbiage regarding C Bosh & D Wade’s resurgence
BOSH & WADE’s proficiency made all the difference for MIA

The fundamental part of this statement is TRUE
Yet breaking down Bosh & Wade Game 2 production increase
Reveals a less than sterling impression

BOSH w/16 Points on 6-13 FG’s
6 of those Points came on decent ball movement DUNKS (3-3)
Thus, Bosh was 3-10 on the remaining FG’s,
Two FG’s in Paint (2-6 FG) | One FG on J’s (1-4 FG)
Really not THAT Efficient (from STARTER Minutes)

WADE had FEWER Pts in Paint (Just 1-4 FG in Gm 2 | 2-5 in Gm 1)
Though was far better on J’s (7-14 FG)
This is simply NOT the texture of a ‘More Aggressive’ Wade

However, OKC’s HARDEN returned to a HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE
In a Losing Cause, Harden got to the PAINT & RIM
Harden was 4-5 FG at Rim
Harden was 2-3 from Deep
Harden was 5-7 FT’s
Harden was 3-6 on J’s
This IS the stylistics of a POTENT BENCH Player

The factor that mucked it up for OKC?
The hard-to-forecast the incomprehensible 2ND Slow OKC Start &
Durant & Westbrook’s unexplainable foul issues

The assumptions made about Durant & James?
Well, both players are doing their thing as efficiently as ever
(Even w/Durant inexplicably starting slowly again, w/fouls)

Also, OKC Westbrook truly came close to same proficiency as Game 1
(Still hitting low% of his 3’s | and 7-27 on J’s)

Overall, Miami infused w/confidence at HOME
Makes the OKC side more problematic on it’s own

Yet, truth is OKC HASN’T BEEN OUTSCORED ANY QTRS
OTHER than 1ST QTR OF EACH GAME
(MIA +17 in 1ST Q’s)

If/when OKC finds a way to start games a LITTLE better
(They’ve had an ‘Extra Day’ to work on it)
OKC has proven to be so much deeper
OKC also has Bench Production figured Out - again
OKC +11 Avg Bench Points
OKC +39 Avg Bench Minutes

I like OVERS to continue, w/Pace staying so steady
Game 1 Tempo: 89 Possessions
Game 2 Tempo: 90 Possessions

w/Teaser Over Nudge
REALLY like OKC to keep w/in small handful of possessions

2 UNIT | 4½-POINT TEASER (-120 | BetUS)
OKLAHOMA CITY +8½
MIAMI
To
OKLAHOMA CITY
MIAMI | OVER 188

All the best, guys

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

brkatz
Joined: 01/11/2011
Posts: 1326
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Isn't the answer to OKC's slow starts that Harden is coming off the bench - which suggests OKC's depth is just on paper since Harden gets starter minutes and Collison and Perkins won't get much playing time with both teams going small and Ibaka the better shot blocker.  To me Harden's numbers are just about Miami weighting the defense to Westbrook.  Of course OKC gonna outscore Miami in quarters if Miami is up by 12-15 in the first quarter on the road, but OKC has led after only 1 quarter the whole series.

Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6222
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor
OKC Starter Struggles?

I’d argue these inherent ‘struggles’ 
Are part of OKC’s Overall composition 
Clearly, OKC doesn’t PETITION FOR 1ST Qtr deficiencies
Yet, 1ST-Q deficit sare so common w/OKC Playoff Game stylistics,
It probably troubles Thunder less than we may presume

In fact,
OKC ‘WON’ ONLY 2 of LAST 12 PLAYOFF 1ST QTRS
OKC Average 1ST-Q Deficit in these Gms: >4 PTS
OKC 1ST QTRS | L-12 GMS
GAME 2 vs. MIA | MIA +12
GAME 1 vs. MIA | MIA +7
GAME 6 vs. SAS | SAS +14
GAME 5 at SAS | OKC +5
GAME 4 vs. SAS | EVEN
GAME 3 vs. SAS | SAS +2
GAME 2 at SAS | SAS +2
GAME 1 at SAS | SAS +6
GAME 5 vs. LAL | OKC +5
GAME 4 at LAL | LAL +5
GAME 3 at LAL | LAL +8
GAME 2 vs. LAL | LAL +1
NBA FINALS | GAME 1
Even w/Miami’s got off to Hot Start, &
OKC BENCH scored ‘just’ 19 Pts

ONLY 2 OKC PLAYERS LOGGED 30+ MIN
MIA 5 PLAYERS w/at LEAST 33:39 MIN

I’d also challenge assessment of Harden’s Role;
“Playing Starter Minutes”

ALMOST

Harden plays an abundance of Minutes
YET, HARDEN’S MIN ARE ACTUALLY DROPPING (slightly)
AS THUNDER CONTINUE IN PLAYOFFS
HARDEN: 28:30 Avg Min in NBA Finals
HARDEN: 30:42 Avg Min in Playoffs
HARDEN: 31:23 Avg Min Regular Season
OKC’s HC Brooks explains OKC Harden/Bench Plan
Similar to Ginobili’s Role off San Antonio’s Bench In
OKC’s Scheme as ‘cost-effective’ method to infuse OKC 2ND Shift
Bridge Gaps in Offensive Limitations of OKC Frontline
FORCE Opponents into excessive minutes for Starting 2/3’s

DOUBT we’ll see MORE Harden than 34-MAX
DOUBT we'll see Harden in Starting Lineup anytime soon
Since Harden’s EFFECTIVENESS
Is thought to be tied to matchups Harden Forces
This might be heavily compromised
Inserting Harden into Starting Shift

Could be wrong – wouldn’t be the 1ST Time
Can’t wait to see what happens

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6222
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Harden's numbers are just about MIA weighting 'D' to Westbrook

2ND Part of OKC's Harden 'Usage' points, Braktz

Since it's yet another essential OKC advantage
To having HARDEN dovetail into 2ND Shift

OKC forces Teams into picking poison(s)
1. Extending Starter Minutes to maintain leverage
2. OKC Spreads Court w/In-Out Game (w/Durant tying up enough Defensive attn)

2012 NBA FINALS
IN Westbrook 13-24 FG’s at RIM
OUT Harden 3-4 Deep & 8-14 FG’s all Jumpers
ect

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

  • 3 Replies
  • 2 Subscribers
  • Posted11 months ago