Andre Gomes NBA 04/28 Saturday (461-424-12 ATS | +16.45 units)

Philadelphia has been a fading team since the All-Star break and it isn't this recent 4-games winning streak before losing in their last game in Detroit that will change my opinion. In fact, on this winning streak, Philadelphia defeated Cleveland, New Jersey and Milwaukee plus Indiana in overtime, when the Pacers had their #3 seed already secured. Coach Collins has been changing the team's rotations a lot, but without success. He has replaced Meeks with Turner, but Turner needs the ball to be effective and for that, there is already Iguodala and Holiday in the lineup. Meeks is starting today, however the main problem of the Sixers will definitely be in the frontcourt, as Hawes isn't simply the same player since returning from injury. He's just too soft right now and he can't handle the opposing physical frontcourts. Coach Collins understood that and the rookie Allen will start today instead of him. However, Allen is quite inexperienced and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in early foul trouble thanks to that, plus he will eventually burn out quickly, which will leave Philadelphia clearly exposed to Chicago's frontcourt, with this being the main reason why I believe Chicago will easily control this series.

Offensively, Philadelphia will have a lot of problems in scoring on this series. The Sixers ran a pretty conservative offense and they don't want to take risks, with that being the reason why they were the team that less committed turnovers during the regular season. They aren't also aggressive in attacking and this is why their FT rate is extremely low at 16.29. With Hawes on court, the team would still have some scoring punch in mid-range jumpers, but with Allen, Philadelphia will basically have one less player on the offense. Brand is still a solid player, but he is coming from a regular season where he attempted 2.0 FGA per game at the rim, so Philadelphia will have very little impact in scoring down low against Chicago. If they manage to do something at this area, it will be due to their guards being able to attack the rim, as Philadelphia's offensive strength relies on their good ability to score in ISO plays, where they were #5 in effectiveness during the regular season. However, Chicago was #2 in defending ISO plays and so, I don't expect the Sixers to make a lot of damage on this area against the Bulls.

Philadelphia is a perimeter team (just like Chicago), but the Bulls defense was #4 in defending FG from 16-23 feet by allowing just 35.8% FG. Just like the Sixers, Chicago can be considered as a jump shooting team, however the Bulls are the best rebounding team in the league and their offensive rebounds will be a key edge for them against Philadelphia. The Sixers have been a declining team since the All Star and that has been mostly due to their poor rim defense and especially their perimeter defense that hasn't been so good on the second half of the season by having allowed 36% from 16-23 feet for the whole season, but 40% FG since the All Star.

The series between these two teams in the regular season ended with 2-1 in favor of Chicago, but note that in Philadelphia's win, Deng didn't play and with that Iguodala had a super game with 8-13 FG 19pts and 9 reb. However, in the other two games, Philadelphia shot just 39.2% FG and 41.8% FG. I expect a similar or even worse shooting game from Philadelphia today and with them lacking a lot of FT attempts and being limited on their inside game, Chicago will have a clear edge on defense today. On the other hand, I expect their offense even with a limited Rose to be able to give them a clear win today due to their frontcourt and offensive rebound edge! Therefore, I'll be taking both Chicago and the Under in here.