When working on the upcoming season in any sport your preperation may tell you that Team X is a team I am looking to back or Team Y is a team I think will be overrated. But the truth of the matter is that those are only general rules and not steadfast opinions. You have to be able to recognize when there is going to be value and not bet into something that has had the value taken out.
For example, a few years ago I was on a panel of eight handicappers in a Las Vegas Football Handicapping Seminar. The moderator asked which teams will we be able to make money on this year. One by one he went around the table asking each handicapper who he thought would be a money making team that season. When he got around to me as the last speaker I said "This is a complete waste of time. Other than the opening week games we have no idea what the lines are going to be on these teams. How can we say what teams can make us money without knowing what the lines are?" The fact of the matter is Team A may have some value but if everyone else believes the same thing it may actually be better to go against Team A despite what your initial preseason thoughts were. We are looking for value and if Team A is overrated in the betting markets we have to be able to play against that team.
So don't get too tied into your original perceptions. The line is the great equalizer.
Back Friday with another HTOTD.
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SPECIAL OFFER:Pregame is offering a Special for next 72-hours ONLY: Get Bryan Leonard's 7 & 30 Day Packages DISCOUNTED. The best part is if you sign up today, your 7 or 30 Days start tomorrow.
Thursday we are releasing a RARE 4* NBA Play as well as another MLB Winner. An 11-1 Winner yesterday on the St Louis Cardinals.
The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.
Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.
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Great point, Bryan. My favorite current example of this is the Miami Heat. We almost always pay a premium for Wade and Lebron, but occasionally we see them as a small favorite or even a dog. I'm usually so quick to skip over the Heat game because they rarely have value, but I am forced to handicap any game where they are listed as an underdog (like against the Hawks earlier in the season).
Tim "Lawdawg" Lawson @T_Lawson21 www.veteranempire.com
You are correct Tim. When a public team gets on a hot streak ATS there are many good reasons to take the contrarian side.