NBA Thursday!!!

It was a nice 4-1 night last night, which included going 2-1 in my Top Play Totals. Those Plays are now a solid 33-14-1 (69.8%) on the year. Let’s Keep it rolling tonight.

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Atlanta/ Memphis Over 184: Memphis comes in struggling a bit on offense as they have averaged just 86.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but I feel they are due to breakout a  bit in this one. Atlanta has allowed 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 game and they do allow 92.2 ppg and I feel that the Grizzlies should be good for at least 92 points in this one. Atlanta has been a very so,id team on offense this year as they have averaged 97.6 ppg on 45.6% shooting, while at home they have averaged 103.8 ppg on 46.7% shooting. The Hawks are also a very good 3pt shooting teams as they have hit 40.4 % of their long range shots overall and 38.8% of them at home. Neither team is great from the line, but if both teams hit their percentages we should be fine. This is a low OU line for an Atlanta home game where 196 ppg have been scored and i would expect this one to hit 190 or higher.  

POWER ANGLE PLAY

New Orleans/ San Antonio Over 183.5: Like the Grizzlies above, the Hornets have had problems scoring this year as they have averaged just 88.1 ppg on the year, but they have picked it up a bit of late as they have averaged 92.6 ppg in their last 6 games and 99 ppg in their last 2 games. Now in a game with an OU line of 183.5 and where the Spurs are expected to win, if the Hornets hit 92 points in this one, then this will be an easy over. It won't be that easy to hit though as the Spurs have allowed just 89.6 ppg at home and 87 ppg in their last 5 games overall, but the Hornets did put up 102 points on them in their last game, so i feel that the Hornets should at least hit 90 points in this one. The Spurs on offense have been pushing the ball a bit more this year and it has resulted in 97 ppg overall, including 101.8 ppg at home and they should be able to score plenty on a Hornets team that has allowed 95.4 ppg on the road and 98.2 ppg on a whopping 49% shooting their last 5 overall. Even if the Hornets are held to around 89 or 90 points, i have to believe that the Spurs are good for at least 95 points and that will still get us the OVER here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---  Play Over in all games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the road team is a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) off a game where the combined score was 205 or higher,  vs an average defensive team (92-98 PPG). This play is 43-16 since 1996.



Utah/ Golden State Over 194.5: I sense a pattern here LOL. Utah games have been a bit high scoring of last as their last 6 games have averaged 203.8 ppg. The Jazz have been excellent at the Offensive end of late as they have hit the century mark in 7 of their last 10 games, while scoring an average of 102.1 ppg over that stretch. Now they get to face a Golden State team that has allowed 99.2 ppg overall and 98.3 ppg at home The Warriors on offense have averaged 96.2 ppg overall, while in their last 3 (all at home) that number has jumped to 101 ppg. Utah has not played great defense on the road this year, where they have allowed 102.7 ppg, while they have also allowed 103.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. Both teams have their offenses clicking a bit right now and that should translate in about 200 points or more in this one. KEY TRENDS--- UTAH is 25-12 OVER in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons, while GOLDEN STATE is 17-5 OVER in home games off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996.   

 

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Portland -3.5 over SACRAMENTO: The Kings are not a good team and while Portland has struggled on the road this year, they are the better team and should be able to win this one with ease. Let's also Play against home teams shooting <=43% with a defense that allows >=46% on the season against opponent after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less. This play is 24-5 since 1996. 



5 POINT TEASER--- Utah +9.5  &  San Antonio -4


  

Ty jeff

You are very welcome echilian. BOL to you tonight.

Thanks Jeff

your opinion on the blazers kings total of 190. I am thinking over with the way kings play D. I did a small writeup on it and should be approved soon to post.

BOL today Jeff!

GL Jeff

Good luck bud.

thanks and BOL to all of you guys as well.

I like what I see here Jeff!! ATL is a beauty tonight! Thanks for your work! Keep them coming! (The Ws that is!!!)

Bwizzle